German Bundesliga Predictions

Updated

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Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML
Final
Goals
Sportsbook
Log Loss
DRatings
Log Loss
Eintracht Frankfurt
Dortmund
16.9%
64.5%
18.6%
+400
-147
+360
-150
1
3
-0.53618-0.55956-0.43923
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Freiburg
32.7%
41.5%
25.8%
-193
+550
-195
+525
3
2
-0.44250-0.45631-1.11792
VfB Stuttgart
Hoffenheim
16.4%
64.8%
18.8%
-136
+334
-130
+320
3
0
-0.57968-0.59820-1.80807
Bayern Munich
Darmstadt 98
81.8%
6.8%
11.4%
-675
+1850
-725
+1450
5
2
-0.16016-0.17664-0.20069
Werder Bremen
Union Berlin
15.6%
65.0%
19.4%
+283
+112
+270
+105
1
2
-0.77382-0.76466-0.43104
VfL Bochum
Mainz 05
17.2%
62.9%
19.9%
+341
-121
+340
-125
0
2
-0.62635-0.62946-0.46420
Augsburg
Wolfsburg
23.2%
53.6%
23.1%
+221
+132
+230
+125
3
1
-1.17902-1.22268-1.45998
Borussia Monchengladbach
FC Heidenheim
51.5%
25.1%
23.4%
+163
+169
+164
+165
1
1
-1.32234-1.30409-1.45419
RB Leipzig
FC Koln
47.6%
28.4%
24.1%
-203
+600
-216
+570
5
1
-0.41729-0.41870-0.74322
Wolfsburg
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
14.4%
67.1%
18.5%
+995
-310
+900
-350
0
2
-0.29635-0.30171-0.39900
Hoffenheim
Eintracht Frankfurt
23.8%
54.4%
21.8%
+256
+110
+250
+100
1
3
-0.75997-0.73631-0.60813
Freiburg
VfL Bochum
45.3%
29.6%
25.1%
+191
+155
+196
+145
2
1
-1.08945-1.12874-0.79138
Dortmund
Werder Bremen
56.9%
21.9%
21.2%
-121
+305
-120
+300
2
1
-0.62383-0.63482-0.56440
FC Heidenheim
Augsburg
18.8%
59.8%
21.4%
+385
-143
+385
-150
0
1
-0.55191-0.55417-0.51390
FC Koln
Borussia Monchengladbach
20.0%
59.6%
20.5%
+340
-117
+330
-120
3
3
-1.38741-1.35147-1.58650
Mainz 05
Bayern Munich
4.5%
86.5%
9.0%
+1125
-407
+1025
-440
1
8
-0.24658-0.25229-0.14475
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 03/17/24
#TeamWLTPtsWin LeagueMake Champions LeagueMake Europa LeagueRelegation PlayoffRelegation
1Bayer 04 Leverkusen (22-0-4, 70 pts)25.42.36.382.583.2%100.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2Bayern Munich (19-4-3, 60 pts)24.25.24.677.116.8%100.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
3VfB Stuttgart (18-6-2, 56 pts)20.19.84.164.50.0%77.7%22.3%0.0%0.0%
4Dortmund (14-4-8, 50 pts)17.56.210.262.80.0%59.6%40.4%0.0%0.0%
5RB Leipzig (15-7-4, 49 pts)18.99.06.162.70.0%62.5%37.4%0.0%0.0%
6Eintracht Frankfurt (10-6-10, 40 pts)12.69.112.350.20.0%0.2%75.7%0.0%0.0%
7Augsburg (9-9-8, 35 pts)11.412.310.344.40.0%0.0%9.5%0.0%0.0%
8Hoffenheim (9-11-6, 33 pts)11.914.08.143.70.0%0.0%4.2%0.1%0.0%
9Freiburg (9-11-6, 33 pts)12.113.68.344.70.0%0.0%8.2%0.0%0.0%
10Werder Bremen (8-12-6, 30 pts)10.415.28.339.60.0%0.0%0.8%0.3%0.1%
11FC Heidenheim (7-11-8, 29 pts)9.114.910.037.20.0%0.0%0.0%3.8%0.3%
12Borussia Monchengladbach (6-10-10, 28 pts)9.112.712.239.50.0%0.0%1.4%0.7%0.0%
13Union Berlin (8-14-4, 28 pts)10.916.96.238.90.0%0.0%0.1%1.2%0.3%
14Wolfsburg (6-13-7, 25 pts)8.416.39.234.50.0%0.0%0.0%12.0%2.7%
15VfL Bochum (5-11-10, 25 pts)7.314.412.234.30.0%0.0%0.0%16.9%5.1%
16Mainz 05 (3-13-10, 19 pts)5.716.012.329.50.0%0.0%0.0%35.5%38.0%
17FC Koln (3-14-9, 18 pts)5.817.011.328.50.0%0.0%0.0%27.2%56.5%
18Darmstadt 98 (2-17-7, 13 pts)4.420.39.322.50.0%0.0%0.0%2.3%97.0%

Predictions Methodology

The game and score predictions above do not account for injuries, weather or any other random factor that may be cause the outcome to be swayed. See my disclaimer page for information on the benefits and downfalls about these Bundesliga predictions: disclaimer

The German Bundesliga pits all 18 teams against each other in a home-and-home series for a total of 34 games in a season. The top four teams qualify for the Champions League, and the fifth and sixth teams in the final standings qualify for Europa league. The bottom two teams in the Bundesliga get relegated, while the 16th ranked team plays the third ranked team in 2. Bundesliga to determine who will play in the top division for the next season.

These game predictions should be used for entertainment purposes only. The Season Projection for the Bundesliga is based on a simulation with 1,000 iterations.