MLB Baseball Predictions

Updated

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Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinBest
ML
Best
Spread
Final
Runs
Sportsbook
Log Loss
DRatings
Log Loss
Detroit Tigers
Oakland Athletics
38.0%
62.0%
+176
-185
+175
-185
+1½-123
-1½+105
+1½-115
-1½+105
0
3
-0.44351-0.44482-0.47799
Minnesota Twins
Los Angeles Angels
49.1%
50.9%
+120
-129
+121
-126
+1½-163
-1½+150
+1½-160
-1½+150
3
10
-0.59162-0.59423-0.67466
Pittsburgh Pirates
Milwaukee Brewers
44.1%
55.9%
+131
-139
+135
-141
+1½-166
-1½+150
+1½-160
-1½+150
6
1
-0.85163-0.86496-0.81810
Baltimore Orioles
Texas Rangers
48.3%
51.7%
+114
-122
+115
-119
+1½-175
-1½+156
+1½-175
-1½+159
5
2
-0.77751-0.77392-0.72722
Cleveland Guardians
Cincinnati Reds
43.8%
56.2%
+111
-119
+110
-116
+1½-185
-1½+165
+1½-185
-1½+170
3
10
-0.62712-0.63482-0.57599
San Francisco Giants
Miami Marlins
52.2%
47.8%
-131
+121
-130
+130
-1½+120
+1½-133
-1½+130
+1½-140
1
4
-0.81238-0.83292-0.73915
Tampa Bay Rays
New York Yankees
33.5%
66.5%
+150
-159
+150
-155
+1½-124
-1½+115
+1½-130
-1½+120
8
2
-0.93009-0.92410-1.09219
St. Louis Cardinals
Philadelphia Phillies
48.4%
51.6%
+131
-141
+132
-137
+1½-165
-1½+150
+1½-160
-1½+145
2
9
-0.55384-0.55713-0.66083
Arizona Diamondbacks
Washington Nationals
44.2%
55.8%
+170
-185
+180
-190
+1½-120
-1½+105
+1½-115
-1½+105
0
1
-0.45144-0.43510-0.58298
Atlanta Braves
Chicago Cubs
48.5%
51.5%
+105
-113
+105
-108
-1½+157
+1½-175

5
2
-0.73601-0.72486-0.72414
Colorado Rockies
Los Angeles Dodgers
31.6%
68.4%
+230
-245
+245
-260
+1½+120
-1½-119
+1½+115
-1½-125
5
7
-0.35538-0.33743-0.38043
Detroit Tigers
Oakland Athletics
33.5%
66.5%
+161
-175
+165
-175
+1½-128
-1½+115
+1½-130
-1½+120
4
8
-0.47130-0.46561-0.40780
Toronto Blue Jays
Kansas City Royals
52.6%
47.4%
+108
-118
+108
-115
+1½-178
-1½+160
+1½-185
-1½+166
5
7
-0.63563-0.64124-0.74718
Texas Rangers
Tampa Bay Rays
40.0%
60.0%
+163
-175
+165
-178
+1½-125
-1½+110
+1½-125
-1½+110
6
4
-0.98345-0.99204-0.91647
Arizona Diamondbacks
Washington Nationals
48.2%
51.8%
+166
-175
+165
-172
+1½-125
-1½+108
+1½-130
-1½+115
11
6
-0.99056-0.98422-0.73021
Seattle Mariners
Baltimore Orioles
46.5%
53.5%
+129
-139
+132
-135
+1½-170
-1½+151
+1½-170
-1½+150
2
1
-0.84665-0.84707-0.76570
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0 (0.000)0

Predictions Methodology

Here we use computer estimates from the Inference Index to predict future Major League baseball games. We use previous score and pitcher data to best attempt to estimate the results of each game. The predictions do not account for injuries, or any other factors that may cause the outcome to be swayed in one direction or another. There is a lot of randomness, particularly in baseball, so there will always be some error in the prediction.

Beginning in the 2014 season, we have begun including probable starting pitcher into the calculation. If there is a late change in the starting pitcher for a team and it is not reflected below then the projections will not be an accurate assessment on the game. The current projection system for Major League Baseball games is at Level 3, our highest level of analysis. The Predictor should be used for entertainment purposes only.