MLB Baseball Predictions

Updated

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Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinBest
ML
Best
Spread
Final
Runs
Sportsbook
Log Loss
DRatings
Log Loss
Houston Astros
Texas Rangers
59.0%
41.0%
-165
+160
-165
+160
-1½-115
+1½-102
-1½-115
+1½+100
4
5
-0.96498-0.96498-0.89179
San Diego Padres
San Francisco Giants
57.8%
42.2%
-146
+140
-144
+140
-1½+128
+1½-145
-1½+135
+1½-140
4
5
-0.88773-0.88368-0.86232
Boston Red Sox
Atlanta Braves
35.0%
65.0%
+165
-170
+165
-166
+1½-123
-1½+105
+1½-120
-1½+110
7
8
-0.46818-0.47265-0.43112
Pittsburgh Pirates
Cleveland Guardians
33.4%
66.6%
+210
-225
+220
-230
+1½+100
-1½-115
+1½+100
-1½-110
3
4
-0.37853-0.36782-0.40663
Miami Marlins
New York Yankees
41.7%
58.3%
+175
-182
+175
-182
+1½-110
-1½-105
+1½-110
-1½+100
4
3
-1.02410-1.02410-0.87524
Colorado Rockies
Arizona Diamondbacks
40.5%
59.5%
+160
-169
+157
-166
+1½-158
-1½+140
+1½-158
-1½+140
0
4
-0.47510-0.48211-0.51936
Philadelphia Phillies
Tampa Bay Rays
40.3%
59.7%
+125
-130
+126
-125
+1½-160
-1½+145
+1½-160
-1½+145
4
6
-0.57912-0.58602-0.51542
Baltimore Orioles
Toronto Blue Jays
37.3%
62.7%
+155
-164
+155
-163
+1½-125
-1½+115
+1½-125
-1½+115
5
10
-0.48690-0.48807-0.46670
St. Louis Cardinals
Milwaukee Brewers
49.7%
50.3%
-110
+105
-105
+105
-1½+175
+1½-200
-1½+175
+1½-197
0
3
-0.72981-0.71785-0.68675
Oakland Athletics
Los Angeles Dodgers
39.4%
60.6%
+207
-220
+203
-220
+1½+105
-1½-120
+1½+105
-1½-115
1
5
-0.38435-0.38752-0.50043
Miami Marlins
Atlanta Braves
36.0%
64.0%
+155
-163
+154
-164
+1½-130
-1½+120
+1½-135
-1½+120
4
2
-0.95143-0.95130-1.02101
Milwaukee Brewers
St. Louis Cardinals
52.6%
47.4%
-136
+135
-133
+130
-1½+120
+1½-140
-1½+125
+1½-135
2
4
-0.85654-0.83938-0.74665
Houston Astros
Texas Rangers
52.6%
47.4%
-123
+120
-119
+112
-1½+125
+1½-140
-1½+131
+1½-150
12
4
-0.60055-0.62392-0.64276
Detroit Tigers
Kansas City Royals
44.2%
55.8%
+145
-152
+142
-150
+1½-140
-1½+122
+1½-135
-1½+127
7
8
-0.51498-0.52190-0.58325
Baltimore Orioles
Boston Red Sox
42.1%
57.9%
+145
-150
+145
-150
+1½-135
-1½+120
+1½-130
-1½+115
13
1
-0.90614-0.90614-0.86543
New York Yankees
Toronto Blue Jays
48.0%
52.0%
-108
+105
-110
+103
-1½+139
+1½-155

1
4
-0.72507-0.72484-0.65318
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0 (0.000)0

Predictions Methodology

Here we use computer estimates from the Inference Index to predict future Major League baseball games. We use previous score and pitcher data to best attempt to estimate the results of each game. The predictions do not account for injuries, or any other factors that may cause the outcome to be swayed in one direction or another. There is a lot of randomness, particularly in baseball, so there will always be some error in the prediction.

Beginning in the 2014 season, we have begun including probable starting pitcher into the calculation. If there is a late change in the starting pitcher for a team and it is not reflected below then the projections will not be an accurate assessment on the game. The current projection system for Major League Baseball games is at Level 3, our highest level of analysis. The Predictor should be used for entertainment purposes only.