Portugal Primeira Liga Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for March 7, 2026

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
AVS
Alverca 		21.0%
52.4%		26.6%
+400
-142
+400
-140
0.81
1.47		2.28
o2¼-132
u2½-118

Sporting CP
Braga 		49.3%
25.2%		25.5%
+102
+270
+110
+255
1.54
1.03		2.57
o2¼-132
u2½-118

Casa Pia AC
Estoril 		17.4%
59.6%		22.9%
+400
-135
+335
-135
0.84
1.79		2.63
o2¾+101
u2¾-120

Games for Mar 6, 2026
Games for Mar 8, 2026

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Arouca
Estrela		21.9%
51.8%		26.3%
+170
+180
+180
+170
1
2		-1.07362-1.04214-0.65811
AVS
Casa Pia AC		23.4%
50.4%		26.2%
+380
-119
+390
-120
1
1		-1.27909-1.24514-1.34029
SC Farense
Boavista		24.7%
48.0%		27.3%
+202
+155
+215
+150
1
1		-1.15823-1.14819-1.29887
Porto
Famalicao		64.5%
15.1%		20.4%
-251
+754
-255
+710
1
1		-1.61164-1.60909-1.58724
Rio Ave
Santa Clara		21.0%
53.0%		26.0%
+500
-138
+420
-135
0
1		-0.56676-0.60547-0.63533
Vitoria
Benfica		9.7%
73.8%		16.5%
+949
-332
+925
-340
0
1		-0.30271-0.30862-0.30370
Nacional
Gil Vicente FC		19.5%
56.4%		24.0%
+296
+108
+300
-105
1
2		-0.75858-0.71980-0.57206
Estoril
Braga		5.9%
81.2%		12.8%
+1055
-393
+1100
-425
2
2		-1.90865-1.88407-2.05362
Sporting CP
Moreirense		61.5%
16.3%		22.2%
-284
+861
-330
+900
1
2		-2.29531-2.35388-1.81296
Casa Pia AC
Porto		4.1%
85.5%		10.4%
+1508
-500
+1350
-500
0
2		-0.21432-0.23154-0.15696
Gil Vicente FC
Vitoria		14.1%
64.6%		21.3%
+424
-131
+420
-140
0
4		-0.60305-0.58742-0.43666
Braga
AVS		59.5%
17.9%		22.6%
-244
+745
-245
+750
1
0		-0.38528-0.39109-0.51953
Benfica
Arouca		73.9%
9.4%		16.7%
-433
+1200
-475
+1200
2
0		-0.24372-0.24095-0.30297
Famalicao
Estoril		41.6%
30.5%		27.9%
+140
+235
+130
+235
1
2		-1.24403-1.25846-1.18882
Santa Clara
Sporting CP		5.0%
83.4%		11.6%
+1135
-400
+1225
-500
1
0		-2.54925-2.63443-3.00296
Boavista
Nacional		25.2%
48.7%		26.1%
+300
+104
+300
-105
0
0		-1.27837-1.28910-1.34350
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.55052 
Sportsbooks11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.56136 
DRatings11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.54948
0.00104
0.01188

Predictions Methodology

The Portuguese Liga (Primeira Liga) consists of 18 teams. As with many other European leagues, teams progress throughout the season using the process of promotion and relegation, with the two lowest teams relegated to Segunda Liga, and the two highest teams moving up to join the Primeira Liga. The league became official in 1938, after four years as an experimental league, and has since improved its reputation within the UEFA (Union of European Football Associations).