Portugal Primeira Liga Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for March 7, 2026

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
AVS
Alverca 		21.0%
52.4%		26.6%
+400
-133
+400
-140
0.81
1.47		2.28
o2½+100
u2½-118

Sporting CP
Braga 		49.3%
25.2%		25.5%
-105
+300
-105
+300
1.54
1.03		2.57
o2¼-135
u2½-115

Casa Pia AC
Estoril 		17.4%
59.6%		22.9%
+370
-139
+365
-145
0.84
1.79		2.63
o2½-118
u2¾-126

Games for Mar 6, 2026
Games for Mar 8, 2026

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Boavista
Gil Vicente FC		21.6%
52.8%		25.6%
+392
-130
+420
-140
2
1		-1.64227-1.70068-1.53326
Benfica
SC Farense		76.1%
8.3%		15.6%
-726
+2046
-660
+1625
2
1		-0.16772-0.19120-0.27271
Casa Pia AC
Rio Ave		20.2%
54.3%		25.5%
+219
+143
+205
+150
2
2		-1.19557-1.18061-1.36520
Estrela
Sporting CP		3.9%
86.1%		10.0%
+2400
-1200
+2600
-1500
1
5		-0.13223-0.11472-0.15007
Porto
AVS		70.6%
11.0%		18.4%
-320
+700
-300
+800
5
0		-0.35528-0.33798-0.34832
Vitoria
Estrela		51.1%
22.9%		26.0%
-135
+405
-130
+425
2
2		-1.31763-1.27239-1.34877
Rio Ave
Benfica		4.7%
84.1%		11.2%
+1904
-682
+1850
-800
0
5		-0.16918-0.16779-0.17271
SC Farense
Braga		8.5%
75.6%		15.9%
+901
-296
+800
-325
0
2		-0.31729-0.31680-0.27918
Sporting CP
Famalicao		67.6%
13.2%		19.1%
-321
+984
-340
+1000
3
0		-0.30393-0.30882-0.39162
Moreirense
Boavista		40.8%
30.7%		28.5%
+140
+237
+125
+255
2
0		-0.90981-0.86353-0.89688
Arouca
Estoril		35.6%
33.8%		30.6%
+151
+214
+140
+220
1
4		-1.17318-1.21362-1.08379
Gil Vicente FC
Santa Clara		21.2%
53.2%		25.6%
+311
+113
+290
+115
1
2		-0.79496-0.81369-0.63096
Nacional
Casa Pia AC		23.3%
51.2%		25.5%
+244
+128
+230
+125
0
1		-0.85334-0.86022-0.66996
Braga
Porto		14.9%
64.7%		20.4%
+605
-217
+550
-215
1
2		-0.41399-0.43209-0.43546
Estoril
SC Farense		22.7%
50.2%		27.1%
+260
+117
+260
+115
0
1		-0.81376-0.81482-0.68945
Boavista
Vitoria		10.9%
70.8%		18.3%
+850
-265
+810
-275
2
2		-1.54740-1.61888-1.70024
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.55052 
Sportsbooks11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.56136 
DRatings11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.54948
0.00104
0.01188

Predictions Methodology

The Portuguese Liga (Primeira Liga) consists of 18 teams. As with many other European leagues, teams progress throughout the season using the process of promotion and relegation, with the two lowest teams relegated to Segunda Liga, and the two highest teams moving up to join the Primeira Liga. The league became official in 1938, after four years as an experimental league, and has since improved its reputation within the UEFA (Union of European Football Associations).