Portugal Primeira Liga Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for March 6, 2026

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

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More Details
Arouca
Famalicao 		19.3%
57.7%		23.0%
+340
-124
+350
-125
0.94
1.80		2.74
o2¼-137
u2½-115

Games for Mar 5, 2026
Games for Mar 7, 2026

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Santa Clara
Alverca		46.9%
25.4%		27.6%
+144
+232
+165
+200
1
1		-1.16002-1.13029-1.28638
Tondela
Estrela		32.5%
39.7%		27.8%
+180
+195
+175
+190
2
0		-1.05866-1.06352-1.12448
Moreirense
Rio Ave		35.5%
35.4%		29.1%
+120
+260
+130
+235
2
1		-0.82860-0.88242-1.03493
Famalicao
Sporting CP		8.3%
76.8%		14.9%
+850
-312
+900
-330
0
1		-0.32143-0.31278-0.26416
Estoril
AVS		44.5%
26.9%		28.6%
-134
+330
-130
+325
0
3		-1.49830-1.49620-1.31476
Porto
Nacional		67.4%
13.0%		19.5%
-244
+700
-265
+725
1
0		-0.38317-0.37021-0.39448
Braga
Gil Vicente FC		44.7%
27.5%		27.8%
-103
+340
+110
+295
1
2		-1.52399-1.42437-1.29211
Estrela
Vitoria		13.2%
67.2%		19.6%
+550
-167
+550
-175
1
2		-0.50436-0.50073-0.39815
Arouca
Casa Pia AC		39.5%
30.9%		29.6%
+152
+208
+150
+200
2
3		-1.16219-1.14816-1.17480
Alverca
Tondela		30.8%
42.1%		27.1%
+208
+165
+200
+160
1
1		-1.13339-1.14863-1.30401
Benfica
Santa Clara		68.0%
12.4%		19.7%
-172
+575
-185
+580
2
1		-0.49456-0.48339-0.38624
Sporting CP
Porto		28.8%
43.9%		27.3%
+208
+152
+205
+150
1
1		-1.18780-1.18061-1.29935
AVS
Famalicao		12.3%
69.0%		18.7%
+650
-204
+600
-225
1
3		-0.43008-0.41895-0.37177
Alverca
Benfica		3.6%
87.4%		9.0%
+1300
-565
+2100
-625
1
2		-0.21592-0.19757-0.13439
Rio Ave
Braga		9.6%
73.2%		17.2%
+1500
-625
+1400
-575
0
3		-0.18977-0.20923-0.31263
Casa Pia AC
Nacional		20.7%
56.2%		23.1%
+370
-122
+370
-125
0
0		-1.32024-1.31572-1.46542
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Predictions Methodology

The Portuguese Liga (Primeira Liga) consists of 18 teams. As with many other European leagues, teams progress throughout the season using the process of promotion and relegation, with the two lowest teams relegated to Segunda Liga, and the two highest teams moving up to join the Primeira Liga. The league became official in 1938, after four years as an experimental league, and has since improved its reputation within the UEFA (Union of European Football Associations).