Portugal Primeira Liga Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for May 11, 2024

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Rio Ave
Portimonense 		40.8%
28.9%		30.4%
+226
+129
+225
+125
1.12
0.90		2.02
o2¼-122
u2½-110

Volatility Bet Value Active
Estrela
FC Vizela 		31.5%
39.5%		28.9%
+116
+241
+115
+235
1.03
1.18		2.21
o2½-105
u2½-105

Sporting CP
Estoril 		73.0%
9.7%		17.4%
-224
+610
-235
+575
2.23
0.67		2.90
o3-118
u3+105

Braga
Vitoria 		37.9%
33.9%		28.2%
+120
+231
+120
+220
1.20
1.12		2.32
o2¾-118
u3-131

Games for May 10, 2024
Games for May 12, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Chaves
Casa Pia AC		22.2%
52.1%		25.7%
+319
+108
+305
+100
1
3		-0.75639-0.74188-0.65168
Rio Ave
FC Vizela		28.4%
42.8%		28.8%
+158
+181
+150
+185
1
1		-1.26277-1.25716-1.24361
Arouca
Gil Vicente FC		30.9%
39.1%		29.9%
+185
+148
+175
+145
2
2		-1.32246-1.32931-1.20597
Benfica
SC Farense		76.1%
8.3%		15.6%
-296
+752
-300
+725
3
1		-0.33055-0.33626-0.27271
Vitoria
Sporting CP		8.9%
74.9%		16.2%
+1411
-453
+960
-375
0
3		-0.22082-0.28564-0.28907
Porto
Casa Pia AC		69.4%
11.7%		18.9%
-286
+824
-300
+800
2
1		-0.33428-0.33798-0.36570
Portimonense
Famalicao		19.0%
56.8%		24.1%
+458
-150
+480
-165
2
2		-1.40173-1.41116-1.42171
Estoril
Chaves		31.0%
39.7%		29.3%
+152
+201
+150
+200
2
2		-1.23189-1.19696-1.22700
FC Vizela
Braga		8.5%
76.0%		15.5%
+1017
-375
+950
-410
1
2		-0.26668-0.26991-0.27423
Estrela
Boavista		24.3%
49.3%		26.3%
+166
+189
+170
+185
1
1		-1.18166-1.16309-1.33477
Gil Vicente FC
Moreirense		22.8%
50.8%		26.4%
+212
+155
+210
+140
1
0		-1.16174-1.18185-1.47902
Arouca
Rio Ave		27.7%
42.8%		29.5%
+192
+160
+190
+155
1
1		-1.21500-1.21147-1.22075
Sporting CP
Famalicao		71.1%
11.3%		17.6%
-304
+825
-350
+900
1
0		-0.31714-0.30171-0.34062
Chaves
FC Vizela		18.8%
57.2%		24.1%
+267
+110
+250
+115
1
0		-1.33720-1.30092-1.67371
Moreirense
Benfica		4.6%
84.7%		10.7%
+796
-286
+800
-325
0
3		-0.33363-0.31680-0.16623
Boavista
Arouca		19.2%
56.1%		24.6%
+398
-143
+400
-145
1
2		-0.56874-0.57481-0.57782
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.94369 
Sportsbooks11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.94631 
DRatings10-1-0 (0.000)0-1.12559
-0.18190
-0.17928

Predictions Methodology

The Portuguese Liga (Primeira Liga) consists of 18 teams. As with many other European leagues, teams progress throughout the season using the process of promotion and relegation, with the two lowest teams relegated to Segunda Liga, and the two highest teams moving up to join the Primeira Liga. The league became official in 1938, after four years as an experimental league, and has since improved its reputation within the UEFA (Union of European Football Associations).