Real Madrid at Villarreal

Updated

Real Madrid

43.3%26.6%30.2%
Real Madrid WinDrawVillarreal Win
1.40Projected Goals 1.12
3Final Score 2

Villarreal

Last Games

Real Madrid
Money Line
L 0-1 at Athletic Club+155
W 2-1 at Elche-230
Villarreal
Money Line
W 5-1 at Cartagena-220

Money Line Analysis

Implied Margin

Using the best lines from multiple sportsbooks, this would be the % take from the consensus sportsbook if bets were even on each side.

More on Implied Margin
:
2.4%

Implied Margin

Using the best lines from multiple sportsbooks, this would be the % take from the consensus sportsbook if bets were even on each side.

More on Implied Margin
:
5.1%
 Open LineHeritageBovadaBetOnline5DimesSportsBettingBest Line

No-Vig Odds

Using a market maker sportsbook, this is what the line would be if there was no vigorish (sportsbook fee) in the price.

More on No-Vig Odds
Real Madrid+120+141+140+135+147+135+147+153.8
Villarreal+225+192+185+190+190+190+192+198.0
Draw+225+254+250+258+260+258+260+269.9
 Open LineSouth PointCircaCaesarsStationsWestgateBest Line

No-Vig Odds

Using a market maker sportsbook, this is what the line would be if there was no vigorish (sportsbook fee) in the price.

More on No-Vig Odds
Real Madrid+125---+115+140+140+153.8
Villarreal+200---+170+185+185+198.0
Draw+265---+245+250+250+269.9

Overall

Bet Value Inactive
Real Madrid: 10.0%
Bet Value Inactive
Villarreal: 0.0%

Base Rating

Our analytical projection of the match in relation to the implied probability to win from the sportsbooks.

More on Base Rating

Real Madrid: 20.0%
Villarreal: 0.0%

Bet Trends

Doing an analysis on the betting data, we project which team has which team has an edge.

More on Bet Trends

Sharp Line

Our proprietary formula predicting which direction the line will move.

More on Sharp Line

Real Madrid: 0.0%
Villarreal: 0.0%

Latest ML

Steam Move

A quick and uniform line move across every sportsbook. Usually caused by an injury or deep-pocketed sharp bettor.

More on Steam Move

Real Madrid ML moved from +155 to +147
Villarreal ML moved from +197 to +184

Overall

Bet Value Inactive
Real Madrid: 10.0%
Bet Value Inactive
Villarreal: 0.0%

Base Rating

Our analytical projection of the match in relation to the implied probability to win from the sportsbooks.

More on Base Rating

Real Madrid: 20.0%
Villarreal: 0.0%

Bet Trends

Doing an analysis on the betting data, we project which team has which team has an edge.

More on Bet Trends

Sharp Line

Our proprietary formula predicting which direction the line will move.

More on Sharp Line

Real Madrid: 0.0%
Villarreal: 0.0%

Latest ML

Steam Move

A quick and uniform line move across every sportsbook. Usually caused by an injury or deep-pocketed sharp bettor.

More on Steam Move

Real Madrid ML moved from +150 to +140
Villarreal ML moved from +200 to +185

Over/Under Analysis

Implied Margin

Using the best lines from multiple sportsbooks, this would be the % take from the consensus sportsbook if bets were even on each side.

More on Implied Margin
:
0.8%

Implied Margin

Using the best lines from multiple sportsbooks, this would be the % take from the consensus sportsbook if bets were even on each side.

More on Implied Margin
:
4.0%
 Open LineHeritageBovadaBetOnline5DimesSportsBettingBest Line

No-Vig Odds

Using a market maker sportsbook, this is what the line would be if there was no vigorish (sportsbook fee) in the price.

More on No-Vig Odds
Overo2¾-105o3+104o3-102o2¾-120o3+104o2¾-120o2¾-120o3+111
Underu2¾-115u3-124u3-118u2¾+100u3-119u2¾+100u3-118u3-111
 Open LineSouth PointCircaCaesarsStationsWestgateBest Line

No-Vig Odds

Using a market maker sportsbook, this is what the line would be if there was no vigorish (sportsbook fee) in the price.

More on No-Vig Odds
Overo3+110---o3+100o3+110o3+110o3+111
Underu3-130---u3-130u3-130u3-130u3-111

Overall

Bet Value Inactive
Over: 0.0%
Bet Value Inactive
Under: 10.0%

Base Rating

Our analytical projection of the match in relation to the implied probability to win from the sportsbooks.

More on Base Rating

Over: 0.0%
Under: 10.0%

Bet Trends

Doing an analysis on the betting data, we project which team has which team has an edge.

More on Bet Trends

Sharp Line

Our proprietary formula predicting which direction the line will move.

More on Sharp Line

Over: 0.0%
Under: 0.0%

Latest O/U

Steam Move

A quick and uniform line move across every sportsbook. Usually caused by an injury or deep-pocketed sharp bettor.

More on Steam Move

No Steam Moves On Over
The Under moved from u3-109 to u2¾+100

Overall

Bet Value Inactive
Over: 0.0%
Bet Value Inactive
Under: 10.0%

Base Rating

Our analytical projection of the match in relation to the implied probability to win from the sportsbooks.

More on Base Rating

Over: 0.0%
Under: 10.0%

Bet Trends

Doing an analysis on the betting data, we project which team has which team has an edge.

More on Bet Trends

Sharp Line

Our proprietary formula predicting which direction the line will move.

More on Sharp Line

Over: 0.0%
Under: 0.0%

Latest O/U

Steam Move

A quick and uniform line move across every sportsbook. Usually caused by an injury or deep-pocketed sharp bettor.

More on Steam Move

The Over moved from o2½-145 to o3-110
No Steam Moves On Under

Goal Props

Both Teams to Score
Yes50.8%
 
No49.2%

Total Goals

0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Exact Goals Scored - Overall
Exactly 08.02%
Exactly 225.53%
Exactly 413.54%
Exactly 62.87%
Exactly 80.33%
 
Exactly 120.24%
Exactly 321.47%
Exactly 56.83%
Exactly 71.04%
Exact Goals Scored - Real Madrid
Exactly 024.67%
Exactly 134.53%
Exactly 224.16%
Exactly 311.27%
Exactly 43.94%
Exactly 51.10%
Exactly 60.26%
Exact Goals Scored - Villarreal
Exactly 032.53%
Exactly 136.53%
Exactly 220.51%
Exactly 37.68%
Exactly 42.16%
Exactly 50.48%
Exact Goals Scored - First Half
Exactly 031.10%
Exactly 221.21%
Exactly 42.41%
Exactly 60.11%
 
Exactly 136.32%
Exactly 38.26%
Exactly 50.56%
Exact Goals Scored - First Half - Real Madrid
Exactly 052.31%
Exactly 133.90%
Exactly 210.98%
Exactly 32.37%
Exactly 40.38%
Exact Goals Scored - First Half - Villarreal
Exactly 059.45%
Exactly 130.91%
Exactly 28.04%
Exactly 31.39%
Exactly 40.18%

Alternate Props

Spread

Real Madrid
Wins by 2+ goals20.51%
Wins by 3+ goals7.63%
Wins by 4+ goals2.28%
Wins by 5+ goals0.54%
Villarreal
Wins by 2+ goals11.86%
Wins by 3+ goals3.57%
Wins by 4+ goals0.82%
Wins by 5+ goals0.12%

Exact Winning Margin

Real Madrid
Villarreal
5
4
3
2
1
D
1
2
3
4
5
Real Madrid
Wins by 1 goal22.70%
Wins by 2 goals12.88%
Wins by 3 goals5.35%
Wins by 4 goals1.74%
Wins by 5 goals0.45%
Villarreal
Wins by 1 goal18.21%
Wins by 2 goals8.29%
Wins by 3 goals2.76%
Wins by 4 goals0.70%
Wins by 5 goals0.12%

Total Goals Over/Under

OverUnder
0.591.98%8.02%
1.571.73%28.27%
2.546.20%53.80%
3.524.73%75.27%
4.511.19%88.81%
5.54.35%95.65%
6.51.48%98.52%

Total Goals Real Madrid Over/Under

OverUnder
0.575.33%24.67%
1.540.80%59.20%
2.516.64%83.36%
3.55.37%94.63%
4.51.42%98.58%

Total Goals Villarreal Over/Under

OverUnder
0.567.47%32.53%
1.530.94%69.06%
2.510.43%89.57%
3.52.75%97.25%

Total Goals - First Half Over/Under

OverUnder
0.568.90%31.10%
1.532.58%67.42%
2.511.36%88.64%
3.53.11%96.89%

Score Props

Correct Score

Real Madrid
Villarreal
Score012345
0
8.02%
9.01%
5.06%
1.89%
0.53%
0.12%
1
11.23%
12.61%
7.08%
2.65%
0.74%
0.17%
2
7.86%
8.83%
4.96%
1.86%
0.52%
0.12%
3
3.67%
4.12%
2.31%
0.87%
0.24%
0.05%
4
1.28%
1.44%
0.81%
0.30%
0.09%
0.02%
5
0.36%
0.40%
0.23%
0.08%
0.02%
0.01%
Real Madrid
1-011.23%
2-07.86%
2-18.83%
3-03.67%
3-14.12%
3-22.31%
4-01.28%
4-11.44%
4-20.81%
4-30.30%
5-00.36%
5-10.40%
5-20.23%
Draw
0-08.02%
1-112.61%
2-24.96%
3-30.87%
Villarreal
0-19.01%
0-25.06%
1-27.08%
0-31.89%
1-32.65%
2-31.86%
0-40.53%
1-40.74%
2-40.52%
3-40.24%
0-50.12%
1-50.17%
2-50.12%

Correct Score - First Half

Real Madrid
Villarreal
Score0123
0
31.10%
16.17%
4.20%
0.73%
1
20.15%
10.48%
2.72%
0.47%
2
6.53%
3.40%
0.88%
0.15%
3
1.41%
0.73%
0.19%
0.03%
4
0.23%
0.12%
0.03%
0.01%
Real Madrid
1-020.15%
2-06.53%
2-13.40%
3-01.41%
3-10.73%
3-20.19%
4-00.23%
4-10.12%
Draw
0-031.10%
1-110.48%
2-20.88%
Villarreal
0-116.17%
0-24.20%
1-22.72%
0-30.73%
1-30.47%
2-30.15%