Liverpool at Aston Villa

Updated

Liverpool

42.1%25.6%32.3%
Liverpool WinDrawAston Villa Win
1.47Projected Goals 1.25
2Final Score 4

Aston Villa

Last 5 Games

Liverpool
Money Line
T 1-1 vs Chelsea-105
L 2-3 at Manchester United+185
W 1-3 vs Crystal Palace-185
W 2-1 at Everton+130
W 0-2 vs Fulham-130
Aston Villa
Money Line
T 2-2 at Burnley-170
L 2-1 vs Tottenham+130
L 0-1 at Fulham+170
W 3-4 vs Sunderland-138
T 1-1 at Nottingham Forest+205

Money Line Analysis

Implied Margin

Using the best lines from multiple sportsbooks, this would be the % take from the consensus sportsbook if bets were even on each side.

More on Implied Margin
:
2.1%

Implied Margin

Using the best lines from multiple sportsbooks, this would be the % take from the consensus sportsbook if bets were even on each side.

More on Implied Margin
:
2.9%
 Open Line3etBovadaBetOnlineYouWagerSportsBettingBest Line

No-Vig Odds

Using a market maker sportsbook, this is what the line would be if there was no vigorish (sportsbook fee) in the price.

More on No-Vig Odds
Liverpool+119+152+161+160+167+160+167+169.1
Aston Villa+196+174+170+173+176+173+176+182.6
Draw+275+245+235+252+245+252+252+264.3
 Open LineSouth PointCircaWynnStationsWestgateBest Line

No-Vig Odds

Using a market maker sportsbook, this is what the line would be if there was no vigorish (sportsbook fee) in the price.

More on No-Vig Odds
Liverpool+126-+161+140+130+140+161+169.1
Aston Villa+193-+171+160+165+180+171+182.6
Draw+280-+245+225+260+260+260+264.3

Overall

Bet Value Inactive
Liverpool: 10.0%
Bet Value Inactive
Aston Villa: 0.0%

Base Rating

Our analytical projection of the match in relation to the implied probability to win from the sportsbooks.

More on Base Rating

Liverpool: 20.0%
Aston Villa: 0.0%

Bet Trends

Doing an analysis on the betting data, we project which team has which team has an edge.

More on Bet Trends

Sharp Line

Our proprietary formula predicting which direction the line will move.

More on Sharp Line

Liverpool: 0.0%
Aston Villa: 0.0%

Latest ML

Steam Move

A quick and uniform line move across every sportsbook. Usually caused by an injury or deep-pocketed sharp bettor.

More on Steam Move

Liverpool ML moved from +159 to +152
Aston Villa ML moved from +184 to +178

Overall

Bet Value Inactive
Liverpool: 10.0%
Bet Value Inactive
Aston Villa: 0.0%

Base Rating

Our analytical projection of the match in relation to the implied probability to win from the sportsbooks.

More on Base Rating

Liverpool: 20.0%
Aston Villa: 0.0%

Bet Trends

Doing an analysis on the betting data, we project which team has which team has an edge.

More on Bet Trends

Sharp Line

Our proprietary formula predicting which direction the line will move.

More on Sharp Line

Liverpool: 0.0%
Aston Villa: 0.0%

Latest ML

Steam Move

A quick and uniform line move across every sportsbook. Usually caused by an injury or deep-pocketed sharp bettor.

More on Steam Move

No Steam Moves On Liverpool ML
Aston Villa ML moved from +177 to +171

Over/Under Analysis

Implied Margin

Using the best lines from multiple sportsbooks, this would be the % take from the consensus sportsbook if bets were even on each side.

More on Implied Margin
:
2.2%

Implied Margin

Using the best lines from multiple sportsbooks, this would be the % take from the consensus sportsbook if bets were even on each side.

More on Implied Margin
:
2.3%
 Open Line3etBovadaBetOnlineYouWagerSportsBettingBest Line

No-Vig Odds

Using a market maker sportsbook, this is what the line would be if there was no vigorish (sportsbook fee) in the price.

More on No-Vig Odds
Overo3-121o2½-114o2½-120o2½-120o2½-114o2½-120o2½-114o2½-111
Underu3+105u2½+102u2½+100u2½+104u2½+104u2½+104u2½+104u2½+111
 Open LineSouth PointCircaWynnStationsWestgateBest Line

No-Vig Odds

Using a market maker sportsbook, this is what the line would be if there was no vigorish (sportsbook fee) in the price.

More on No-Vig Odds
Overo3-120o2½-110o2½-110o2½-120o2½-125o2½-110o2½-110o2½-111
Underu3+100u2½-110u2½-110u2½+100u2½-105u2½-110u2½+100u2½+111

Overall

Bet Value Inactive
Over: 0.0%
Bet Value Inactive
Under: 20.0%

Base Rating

Our analytical projection of the match in relation to the implied probability to win from the sportsbooks.

More on Base Rating

Over: 10.0%
Under: 0.0%

Bet Trends

Doing an analysis on the betting data, we project which team has which team has an edge.

More on Bet Trends

Sharp Line

Our proprietary formula predicting which direction the line will move.

More on Sharp Line

Over: 0.0%
Under: 10.0%

Latest O/U

Steam Move

A quick and uniform line move across every sportsbook. Usually caused by an injury or deep-pocketed sharp bettor.

More on Steam Move

The Over moved from o2½-112 to o2¾+100
No Steam Moves On Under

Overall

Bet Value Inactive
Over: 0.0%
Bet Value Inactive
Under: 10.0%

Base Rating

Our analytical projection of the match in relation to the implied probability to win from the sportsbooks.

More on Base Rating

Over: 10.0%
Under: 0.0%

Bet Trends

Doing an analysis on the betting data, we project which team has which team has an edge.

More on Bet Trends

Sharp Line

Our proprietary formula predicting which direction the line will move.

More on Sharp Line

Over: 0.0%
Under: 0.0%

Latest O/U

Steam Move

A quick and uniform line move across every sportsbook. Usually caused by an injury or deep-pocketed sharp bettor.

More on Steam Move

No Steam Moves On Over
The Under moved from u3-115 to u2½-105

Goal Props

Both Teams to Score
Yes54.9%
 
No45.1%

Total Goals

0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Exact Goals Scored - Overall
Exactly 06.61%
Exactly 224.39%
Exactly 415.00%
Exactly 63.69%
Exactly 80.49%
 
Exactly 117.96%
Exactly 322.08%
Exactly 58.15%
Exactly 71.43%
Exactly 90.15%
Exact Goals Scored - Liverpool
Exactly 023.13%
Exactly 133.86%
Exactly 224.79%
Exactly 312.10%
Exactly 44.43%
Exactly 51.30%
Exactly 60.32%
Exact Goals Scored - Aston Villa
Exactly 028.60%
Exactly 135.80%
Exactly 222.41%
Exactly 39.35%
Exactly 42.93%
Exactly 50.73%
Exactly 60.15%
Exact Goals Scored - First Half
Exactly 028.44%
Exactly 222.48%
Exactly 42.96%
Exactly 60.16%
 
Exactly 135.76%
Exactly 39.42%
Exactly 50.75%
Exact Goals Scored - First Half - Liverpool
Exactly 050.77%
Exactly 134.42%
Exactly 211.67%
Exactly 32.64%
Exactly 40.45%
Exact Goals Scored - First Half - Aston Villa
Exactly 056.01%
Exactly 132.46%
Exactly 29.41%
Exactly 31.82%
Exactly 40.26%

Alternate Props

Spread

Liverpool
Wins by 2+ goals20.29%
Wins by 3+ goals7.74%
Wins by 4+ goals2.38%
Wins by 5+ goals0.57%
Aston Villa
Wins by 2+ goals13.74%
Wins by 3+ goals4.57%
Wins by 4+ goals1.22%
Wins by 5+ goals0.26%

Exact Winning Margin

Liverpool
Aston Villa
5
4
3
2
1
D
1
2
3
4
5
Liverpool
Wins by 1 goal21.73%
Wins by 2 goals12.54%
Wins by 3 goals5.37%
Wins by 4 goals1.80%
Wins by 5 goals0.48%
Aston Villa
Wins by 1 goal18.57%
Wins by 2 goals9.17%
Wins by 3 goals3.35%
Wins by 4 goals0.96%
Wins by 5 goals0.22%

Total Goals Over/Under

OverUnder
0.593.39%6.61%
1.575.42%24.58%
2.551.03%48.97%
3.528.94%71.06%
4.513.95%86.05%
5.55.80%94.20%
6.52.12%97.88%

Total Goals Liverpool Over/Under

OverUnder
0.576.87%23.13%
1.543.01%56.99%
2.518.22%81.78%
3.56.12%93.88%
4.51.69%98.31%

Total Goals Aston Villa Over/Under

OverUnder
0.571.40%28.60%
1.535.60%64.40%
2.513.19%86.81%
3.53.84%96.16%

Total Goals - First Half Over/Under

OverUnder
0.571.56%28.44%
1.535.80%64.20%
2.513.32%86.68%
3.53.90%96.10%

Score Props

Correct Score

Liverpool
Aston Villa
Score012345
0
6.61%
8.28%
5.18%
2.16%
0.68%
0.17%
1
9.68%
12.12%
7.59%
3.17%
0.99%
0.25%
2
7.09%
8.88%
5.55%
2.32%
0.73%
0.18%
3
3.46%
4.33%
2.71%
1.13%
0.35%
0.09%
4
1.27%
1.59%
0.99%
0.41%
0.13%
0.03%
5
0.37%
0.46%
0.29%
0.12%
0.04%
0.01%
Liverpool
1-09.68%
2-07.09%
2-18.88%
3-03.46%
3-14.33%
3-22.71%
4-01.27%
4-11.59%
4-20.99%
4-30.41%
5-00.37%
5-10.46%
5-20.29%
5-30.12%
Draw
0-06.61%
1-112.12%
2-25.55%
3-31.13%
4-40.13%
Aston Villa
0-18.28%
0-25.18%
1-27.59%
0-32.16%
1-33.17%
2-32.32%
0-40.68%
1-40.99%
2-40.73%
3-40.35%
0-50.17%
1-50.25%
2-50.18%

Correct Score - First Half

Liverpool
Aston Villa
Score01234
0
28.44%
16.48%
4.78%
0.92%
0.13%
1
19.28%
11.17%
3.24%
0.63%
0.09%
2
6.53%
3.79%
1.10%
0.21%
0.03%
3
1.48%
0.86%
0.25%
0.05%
0.01%
4
0.25%
0.15%
0.04%
0.01%
0.00%
Liverpool
1-019.28%
2-06.53%
2-13.79%
3-01.48%
3-10.86%
3-20.25%
4-00.25%
4-10.15%
Draw
0-028.44%
1-111.17%
2-21.10%
Aston Villa
0-116.48%
0-24.78%
1-23.24%
0-30.92%
1-30.63%
2-30.21%
0-40.13%