English Premier League Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for May 2, 2024

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Tottenham
Chelsea 		26.4%
48.5%		25.1%
+180
+133
+180
+130
1.09
1.58		2.67
o3½-130
u3¾-110
o3½-125
u3½+115
Games for May 1, 2024
Games for May 3, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Tottenham
Newcastle United		35.8%
37.1%		27.1%
+145
+169
+139
+165
0
4		-1.01542-1.01813-0.99147
Nottingham Forest
Tottenham		8.1%
77.4%		14.5%
+555
-223
+550
-240
1
3		-0.39835-0.39226-0.25614
Chelsea
Sheffield United		67.9%
12.3%		19.8%
-223
+560
-238
+575
2
2		-1.71009-1.70007-1.61984
Liverpool
Manchester United		43.0%
30.5%		26.5%
-167
+410
-170
+410
2
2		-1.60137-1.61039-1.32821
Arsenal
Brighton and Hove Albion		49.5%
25.0%		25.5%
-184
+562
-185
+550
3
0		-0.44569-0.45229-0.70342
Burnley
Everton		22.8%
52.0%		25.2%
+370
-130
+365
-130
0
1		-0.59695-0.60342-0.65373
Newcastle United
Fulham		44.2%
29.1%		26.8%
+183
+145
+182
+140
1
0		-1.06807-1.07746-0.81758
West Ham United
Wolverhampton		34.4%
36.7%		28.9%
+152
+190
+155
+180
2
1		-0.95047-0.97051-1.06618
Brentford
Aston Villa		17.6%
60.6%		21.8%
+430
-150
+425
-150
3
3		-1.46694-1.46326-1.52221
Bournemouth
Luton Town		44.0%
28.5%		27.5%
-108
+290
-115
+285
1
2		-1.38629-1.39171-1.25572
Manchester City
Crystal Palace		71.1%
11.1%		17.9%
-280
+950
-310
+1245
4
2		-0.32594-0.28824-0.34153
Manchester United
Chelsea		21.1%
54.9%		23.9%
+296
-122
+282
-120
3
4		-0.62510-0.64516-0.59907
Sheffield United
Liverpool		3.6%
87.2%		9.3%
+3000
-1466
+3500
-2050
1
3		-0.08819-0.09046-0.13744
Aston Villa
Manchester City		5.3%
83.7%		11.0%
+1250
-435
+1050
-450
1
4		-0.23169-0.24755-0.17781
Brighton and Hove Albion
Brentford		37.5%
34.0%		28.5%
+176
+149
+175
+149
0
0		-1.36172-1.34323-1.25355
Luton Town
Arsenal		3.0%
89.0%		8.0%
+1950
-775
+1600
-800
0
2		-0.15527-0.16683-0.11631
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 04/28/24
#TeamWLTPtsWin PLChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Arsenal (25-5-5, 80 pts)26.65.75.885.529.0%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2Manchester City (24-3-7, 79 pts)26.63.67.887.670.9%100.0%0.0%0.0%
3Liverpool (22-4-9, 75 pts)23.64.79.780.40.1%100.0%0.0%0.0%
4Aston Villa (20-8-7, 67 pts)21.09.27.870.80.0%80.0%20.0%0.0%
5Tottenham (18-9-6, 60 pts)20.110.67.367.60.0%20.0%77.9%0.0%
6Manchester United (16-12-6, 54 pts)17.413.57.159.40.0%0.0%0.3%0.0%
7Newcastle United (16-13-5, 53 pts)17.814.16.159.40.0%0.0%1.5%0.0%
8West Ham United (13-12-10, 49 pts)14.013.210.852.80.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
9Chelsea (13-11-9, 48 pts)15.212.410.456.10.0%0.0%0.3%0.0%
10Bournemouth (13-13-9, 48 pts)13.814.49.851.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
11Wolverhampton (13-15-7, 46 pts)13.616.77.748.50.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
12Brighton and Hove Albion (11-12-11, 44 pts)12.213.612.248.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
13Fulham (12-16-7, 43 pts)13.117.27.747.10.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
14Crystal Palace (10-15-10, 40 pts)10.916.210.843.60.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
15Everton (12-15-8, 38 pts)13.215.98.842.50.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
16Brentford (9-18-8, 35 pts)9.919.38.838.50.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
17Nottingham Forest (7-19-9, 26 pts)8.020.29.829.90.0%0.0%0.0%26.0%
18Luton Town (6-22-7, 25 pts)6.523.77.727.40.0%0.0%0.0%87.1%
19Burnley (5-21-9, 24 pts)5.822.49.827.10.0%0.0%0.0%86.9%
20Sheffield United (3-25-7, 16 pts)3.626.67.818.70.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%

Predictions Methodology

The English Premier League projections are based on our proprietary algorithm which we use to project out soccer matches. The EPL is a twenty team league which plays 38 games through out the season. Currently, the top four teams receive a draw to the Champions League and the fifth place team receives a draw to Europa League. Each year, the 18th through 20th placed team gets relegated to the English Championship division.