English Premier League Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for April 21, 2024

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Nottingham Forest
Everton 		16.5%
61.3%		22.2%
+290
+105

0.84
1.85		2.69
o2½-115
u2½+102

West Ham United
Crystal Palace 		27.3%
45.9%		26.8%
+212
+130

1.03
1.41		2.44
o2½-130
u2¾-115

Bournemouth
Aston Villa 		15.7%
63.5%		20.9%
+318
-126

0.87
1.99		2.86
o3¼-109
u3½-132

Liverpool
Fulham 		62.8%
16.2%		21.0%
-185
+470

1.99
0.89		2.88
o3¼-120
u3½-120

Games for Apr 20, 2024
Games for Apr 22, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Everton
Chelsea		12.7%
68.4%		18.9%
+402
-143
+360
-145
0
6		-0.55567-0.56546-0.38025
Aston Villa
Arsenal		10.2%
73.5%		16.3%
+960
-330
+1050
-415
2
0		-2.38087-2.48795-2.28092
Fulham
West Ham United		19.4%
57.8%		22.8%
+196
+143
+190
+135
2
0		-1.10824-1.11024-1.64170
Crystal Palace
Liverpool		8.3%
76.4%		15.2%
+1375
-491
+1300
-575
1
0		-2.71523-2.68619-2.48723
Manchester United
Bournemouth		46.9%
27.0%		26.2%
+184
+144
+173
+140
2
2		-1.38874-1.38206-1.34079
Luton Town
Manchester City		2.0%
91.8%		6.1%
+2500
-939
+2200
-1200
1
5		-0.11735-0.12555-0.08502
Wolverhampton
Nottingham Forest		31.3%
38.9%		29.8%
+268
+118
+270
+110
2
2		-1.27289-1.28446-1.21153
Sheffield United
Brentford		15.1%
63.2%		21.7%
+583
-211
+545
-210
0
2		-0.40680-0.41761-0.45809
Brighton and Hove Albion
Burnley		38.3%
32.8%		28.9%
-104
+294
+100
+270
1
1		-1.40735-1.36790-1.24188
Tottenham
Newcastle United		35.8%
37.1%		27.1%
+145
+169
+139
+165
0
4		-1.01542-1.01813-0.99147
Nottingham Forest
Tottenham		8.1%
77.4%		14.5%
+555
-223
+550
-240
1
3		-0.39835-0.39226-0.25614
Chelsea
Sheffield United		67.9%
12.3%		19.8%
-223
+560
-238
+575
2
2		-1.71009-1.70007-1.61984
Liverpool
Manchester United		43.0%
30.5%		26.5%
-167
+410
-170
+410
2
2		-1.60137-1.61039-1.32821
Arsenal
Brighton and Hove Albion		49.5%
25.0%		25.5%
-184
+562
-185
+550
3
0		-0.44569-0.45229-0.70342
Burnley
Everton		22.8%
52.0%		25.2%
+370
-130
+365
-130
0
1		-0.59695-0.60342-0.65373
Newcastle United
Fulham		44.2%
29.1%		26.8%
+183
+145
+182
+140
1
0		-1.06807-1.07746-0.81758
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.55567 
Sportsbooks11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.56546 
DRatings11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.38025
0.17542
0.18521

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 04/14/24
#TeamWLTPtsWin PLChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Manchester City (22-3-7, 73 pts)26.23.88.086.775.6%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2Arsenal (22-5-5, 71 pts)25.16.46.681.811.3%100.0%0.0%0.0%
3Liverpool (21-3-8, 71 pts)24.54.19.482.913.1%100.0%0.0%0.0%
4Aston Villa (19-8-6, 63 pts)20.610.07.469.20.0%61.6%36.3%0.0%
5Tottenham (18-8-6, 60 pts)20.310.17.668.50.0%37.9%58.1%0.0%
6Newcastle United (15-12-5, 50 pts)17.713.66.759.80.0%0.2%3.9%0.0%
7Manchester United (15-12-5, 50 pts)17.413.96.758.90.0%0.1%0.9%0.0%
8West Ham United (13-11-9, 48 pts)14.613.110.354.10.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
9Chelsea (12-10-8, 44 pts)15.512.310.356.70.0%0.2%0.8%0.0%
10Brighton and Hove Albion (11-10-11, 44 pts)12.912.612.651.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
11Wolverhampton (12-13-7, 43 pts)13.416.28.448.60.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
12Fulham (12-15-6, 42 pts)13.517.47.147.60.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
13Bournemouth (11-12-9, 42 pts)12.814.510.749.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
14Crystal Palace (8-15-9, 33 pts)9.917.410.740.40.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
15Brentford (8-17-8, 32 pts)9.918.79.439.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.4%
16Everton (9-14-8, 29 pts)11.416.79.938.10.0%0.0%0.0%1.0%
17Nottingham Forest (7-17-9, 26 pts)8.519.310.231.70.0%0.0%0.0%25.7%
18Luton Town (6-20-7, 25 pts)7.122.78.229.40.0%0.0%0.0%77.6%
19Burnley (4-21-8, 20 pts)5.523.19.425.90.0%0.0%0.0%95.7%
20Sheffield United (3-22-7, 16 pts)4.325.28.521.40.0%0.0%0.0%99.6%

Predictions Methodology

The English Premier League projections are based on our proprietary algorithm which we use to project out soccer matches. The EPL is a twenty team league which plays 38 games through out the season. Currently, the top four teams receive a draw to the Champions League and the fifth place team receives a draw to Europa League. Each year, the 18th through 20th placed team gets relegated to the English Championship division.