English Premier League Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for May 19, 2024

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Aston Villa
Crystal Palace 		29.3%
43.4%		27.3%
+275
-111
+260
-115
1.05
1.35		2.40
o3¼-122
u3½-116
o3½+100
u3½-120
Newcastle United
Brentford 		39.9%
32.3%		27.8%
+127
+193
+125
+190
1.26
1.10		2.36
o3¼-119
u3½-111
o3½+100
u3½-120
Volatility Bet Value Active
Bournemouth
Chelsea 		9.1%
74.7%		16.3%
+525
-210
+480
-216
0.68
2.35		3.03
o3¾-115
u3¾+102
o3½-140
u4-130
Nottingham Forest
Burnley 		20.9%
53.5%		25.6%
+135
+195
+130
+195
0.87
1.55		2.42
o3¼+109
u3¼-122
o3-125
u3+110
Wolverhampton
Liverpool 		6.0%
81.2%		12.8%
+1350
-570
+1225
-640
0.60
2.67		3.27
o4-111
u4-102
o4-105
u4-110
Manchester United
Brighton and Hove Albion 		30.7%
42.0%		27.4%
+200
+121
+206
+115
1.09
1.32		2.41
o3½-126
u3¾-117
o3½-125
u3½+110
West Ham United
Manchester City 		4.8%
84.7%		10.5%
+1918
-943
+1700
-1000
0.62
3.01		3.63
o4-120
u4¼-116
o4-120
u4+110
Fulham
Luton Town 		50.2%
24.0%		25.7%
+127
+193
+125
+190
1.54
0.97		2.51
o3¼-110
u3½-132
o3½+115
u3½-130
Tottenham
Sheffield United 		67.7%
13.2%		19.1%
-272
+668
-285
+600
2.14
0.82		2.96
o4-103
u4-107
o4-110
u4-105
Everton
Arsenal 		8.0%
77.5%		14.4%
+1450
-539
+1300
-575
0.72
2.58		3.30
o3½+102
u3½-116
o3½+100
u3½-120
Games for May 18, 2024
Games for May 20, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Aston Villa
Arsenal		10.2%
73.5%		16.3%
+960
-330
+1050
-415
2
0		-2.38087-2.48795-2.28092
Fulham
West Ham United		19.4%
57.8%		22.8%
+196
+143
+190
+135
2
0		-1.10824-1.11024-1.64170
Crystal Palace
Liverpool		8.3%
76.4%		15.2%
+1375
-491
+1300
-575
1
0		-2.71523-2.68619-2.48723
Manchester United
Bournemouth		46.9%
27.0%		26.2%
+184
+144
+173
+140
2
2		-1.38874-1.38206-1.34079
Luton Town
Manchester City		2.0%
91.8%		6.1%
+2500
-939
+2200
-1200
1
5		-0.11735-0.12555-0.08502
Wolverhampton
Nottingham Forest		31.3%
38.9%		29.8%
+268
+118
+270
+110
2
2		-1.27289-1.28446-1.21153
Sheffield United
Brentford		15.1%
63.2%		21.7%
+583
-211
+545
-210
0
2		-0.40680-0.41761-0.45809
Brighton and Hove Albion
Burnley		38.3%
32.8%		28.9%
-104
+294
+100
+270
1
1		-1.40735-1.36790-1.24188
Tottenham
Newcastle United		35.8%
37.1%		27.1%
+145
+169
+139
+165
0
4		-1.01542-1.01813-0.99147
Nottingham Forest
Tottenham		8.1%
77.4%		14.5%
+555
-223
+550
-240
1
3		-0.39835-0.39226-0.25614
Chelsea
Sheffield United		67.9%
12.3%		19.8%
-223
+560
-238
+575
2
2		-1.71009-1.70007-1.61984
Liverpool
Manchester United		43.0%
30.5%		26.5%
-167
+410
-170
+410
2
2		-1.60137-1.61039-1.32821
Arsenal
Brighton and Hove Albion		49.5%
25.0%		25.5%
-184
+562
-185
+550
3
0		-0.44569-0.45229-0.70342
Burnley
Everton		22.8%
52.0%		25.2%
+370
-130
+365
-130
0
1		-0.59695-0.60342-0.65373
Newcastle United
Fulham		44.2%
29.1%		26.8%
+183
+145
+182
+140
1
0		-1.06807-1.07746-0.81758
West Ham United
Wolverhampton		34.4%
36.7%		28.9%
+152
+190
+155
+180
2
1		-0.95047-0.97051-1.06618
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 05/15/24
#TeamWLTPtsWin PLChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Manchester City (27-3-7, 88 pts)27.63.27.389.978.6%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2Arsenal (27-5-5, 86 pts)27.55.25.387.721.4%100.0%0.0%0.0%
3Liverpool (23-4-10, 79 pts)23.54.210.380.90.0%100.0%0.0%0.0%
4Aston Villa (20-9-8, 68 pts)20.59.38.369.70.0%100.0%0.0%0.0%
5Tottenham (19-12-6, 63 pts)19.712.16.265.40.0%0.0%95.9%0.0%
6Chelsea (17-11-9, 60 pts)17.411.39.361.60.0%0.0%4.1%0.0%
7Newcastle United (17-14-6, 57 pts)17.514.26.358.80.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
8Manchester United (17-14-6, 57 pts)17.414.36.358.60.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
9West Ham United (14-13-10, 52 pts)14.213.610.352.80.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
10Brighton and Hove Albion (12-13-12, 48 pts)12.313.412.349.10.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
11Bournemouth (13-15-9, 48 pts)13.315.49.349.10.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
12Crystal Palace (12-15-10, 46 pts)12.315.510.347.10.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
13Wolverhampton (13-17-7, 46 pts)13.217.57.346.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
14Fulham (12-17-8, 44 pts)12.617.28.246.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
15Everton (13-15-9, 42 pts)13.215.59.343.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
16Brentford (10-18-9, 39 pts)10.218.59.339.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
17Nottingham Forest (8-20-9, 29 pts)8.420.39.330.50.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
18Luton Town (6-23-8, 26 pts)6.223.68.226.70.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%
19Burnley (5-23-9, 24 pts)5.323.49.325.20.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%
20Sheffield United (3-27-7, 16 pts)3.127.77.216.50.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%

Predictions Methodology

The English Premier League projections are based on our proprietary algorithm which we use to project out soccer matches. The EPL is a twenty team league which plays 38 games through out the season. Currently, the top four teams receive a draw to the Champions League and the fifth place team receives a draw to Europa League. Each year, the 18th through 20th placed team gets relegated to the English Championship division.