France Ligue 1 Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for October 25, 2024

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Le Havre
Rennes 		14.8%
63.6%		21.6%
+550
-172

0.78
1.89		2.67
o2½-108
u2½-105

Games for Oct 24, 2024
Games for Oct 26, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Marseille
Montpellier		43.3%
30.5%		26.2%
-136
+395
-135
+335
5
0		-0.56743-0.60431-0.83676
Reims
Auxerre		32.5%
39.1%		28.4%
+127
+229
+125
+220
1
2		-1.22064-1.21295-0.93946
Angers
Toulouse		15.7%
63.7%		20.5%
+680
-192
+650
-205
1
1		-1.49455-1.45917-1.58377
Nice
Nantes		31.6%
39.9%		28.5%
+170
+194
+170
+200
1
1		-1.19670-1.14624-1.25635
Lyon
Le Havre		45.8%
27.3%		26.9%
-134
+400
-105
+285
4
0		-0.57987-0.71756-0.78089
Strasbourg
Paris Saint-Germain		5.5%
83.0%		11.5%
+930
-350
+850
-365
2
4		-0.28559-0.29113-0.18682
Lens
Saint-Etienne		44.6%
29.3%		26.0%
-175
+525
-185
+500
2
0		-0.47535-0.48196-0.80661
Rennes
Brest		33.0%
40.0%		27.1%
+182
+170
+180
+170
1
1		-1.22156-1.18026-1.30730
Lille
Monaco		27.0%
47.7%		25.3%
+258
+112
+295
-110
0
0		-1.33930-1.34442-1.37417
Paris Saint-Germain
Nice		60.3%
17.5%		22.2%
-167
+470
-165
+440
1
1		-1.48793-1.46145-1.50593
Montpellier
Reims		29.3%
43.6%		27.0%
+425
-149
+385
-150
2
4		-0.53471-0.55970-0.82963
Lens
Strasbourg		36.2%
35.6%		28.1%
+168
+173
+165
+175
2
2		-1.25678-1.22622-1.26830
Le Havre
Brest		19.5%
56.2%		24.3%
+365
-118
+360
-120
0
2		-0.64735-0.65356-0.57640
Nantes
Lyon		17.6%
61.1%		21.3%
+431
-144
+370
-135
0
2		-0.54950-0.60347-0.49290
Monaco
Rennes		36.2%
36.8%		26.9%
+154
+186
+145
+180
2
1		-0.96482-0.94585-1.01600
Toulouse
Lille		14.0%
66.1%		19.9%
+387
-120
+330
-120
1
2		-0.61797-0.64986-0.41396
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 10/06/24
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Monaco (6-0-1, 19 pts)17.97.78.562.114.6%73.5%17.6%0.0%
2Paris Saint-Germain (5-0-2, 17 pts)21.14.88.171.377.5%98.0%1.5%0.0%
3Marseille (4-1-2, 14 pts)15.29.29.555.22.4%37.5%29.1%0.0%
4Reims (4-1-2, 14 pts)12.112.29.746.00.0%3.9%12.1%2.4%
5Lille (4-2-1, 13 pts)16.09.58.556.43.3%42.8%31.8%0.0%
6Lens (2-0-5, 11 pts)12.88.512.751.21.0%15.9%26.7%0.7%
7Strasbourg (2-1-4, 10 pts)11.211.111.745.40.4%3.8%11.5%2.4%
8Lyon (3-3-1, 10 pts)14.011.48.650.60.7%12.3%23.0%0.2%
9Nice (2-2-3, 9 pts)11.811.410.846.10.1%4.5%14.9%1.4%
10Nantes (2-2-3, 9 pts)10.612.810.742.40.0%1.3%4.9%5.5%
11Brest (3-4-0, 9 pts)11.914.37.743.50.0%1.7%7.2%3.8%
12Rennes (2-4-1, 7 pts)12.512.98.746.10.0%3.6%13.9%2.5%
13Saint-Etienne (2-4-1, 7 pts)9.915.88.338.00.0%0.1%2.0%23.0%
14Auxerre (2-5-0, 6 pts)8.717.97.433.40.0%0.0%0.2%45.1%
15Le Havre (2-5-0, 6 pts)9.616.87.636.40.0%0.1%0.6%28.0%
16Toulouse (1-4-2, 5 pts)10.313.99.840.70.0%0.6%2.2%9.2%
17Montpellier (1-5-1, 4 pts)9.715.78.637.80.0%0.4%0.8%22.2%
18Angers (0-4-3, 3 pts)7.216.610.231.80.0%0.0%0.0%53.6%

Predictions Methodology

Ligue 1 is a twenty team league that plays in the 38 game season. The top three finishers make Champions League and the 4th place team makes Europa League. The two teams that finish at the bottom of the table are relegated to Ligue 2.