France Ligue 1 Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for April 24, 2024

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML
GoalsTotal
Goals
Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Paris Saint-Germain
Lorient
75.6%
9.0%
15.4%
-255
+675

2.49
0.74
3.23
o3¼+100
u3¼-120

Lille
Monaco
27.6%
46.7%
25.7%
+203
+136

1.09
1.51
2.60
o2¾-115
u2¾-102

Nice
Marseille
14.1%
65.7%
20.2%
+241
+120

0.82
2.04
2.86
o2½+103
u2½-119

Games for Apr 23, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML
Final
Goals
Sportsbook
Log Loss
DRatings
Log Loss
Lyon
Paris Saint-Germain
6.7%
80.7%
12.5%
+415
-168
+425
-175
1
4
-0.50071-0.49989-0.21406
Marseille
Toulouse
48.3%
26.2%
25.5%
+174
+173
+165
+175
2
2
-1.23829-1.22622-1.36814
Monaco
Brest
38.4%
34.8%
26.7%
+173
+164
+170
+155
2
0
-1.02918-1.04035-0.95709
Montpellier
Reims
29.6%
43.3%
27.1%
+221
+124
+230
+110
2
1
-1.19060-1.24223-1.21841
Strasbourg
Lille
14.2%
65.7%
20.1%
+520
-163
+475
-165
0
1
-0.50306-0.52540-0.41990
Rennes
Nantes
32.6%
39.5%
27.8%
+147
+216
+145
+200
3
0
-0.93280-0.94410-1.11969
Lorient
Nice
20.6%
55.8%
23.6%
+519
-173
+510
-185
0
3
-0.48362-0.48203-0.58363
Brest
Lyon
20.6%
57.0%
22.3%
+295
+107
+265
+110
3
4
-0.75747-0.79376-0.56175
Toulouse
Rennes
16.0%
63.4%
20.6%
+362
-118
+330
-120
2
1
-1.55107-1.50928-1.83158
Reims
Strasbourg
26.2%
47.0%
26.8%
+202
+147
+195
+140
1
3
-0.92568-0.92402-0.75572
Lyon
Nantes
32.1%
40.8%
27.0%
+120
+259
+120
+240
3
1
-0.81871-0.83884-1.13557
Rennes
Monaco
22.5%
54.2%
23.3%
+320
-123
+305
-125
0
1
-0.62237-0.63597-0.61245
Strasbourg
Toulouse
29.0%
45.0%
26.0%
+260
+115
+250
+110
0
0
-1.28096-1.28884-1.34569
Lorient
Montpellier
19.0%
59.1%
21.9%
+325
-119
+315
-125
0
2
-0.63820-0.63936-0.52643
Clermont Foot
Paris Saint-Germain
3.5%
87.3%
9.1%
+865
-290
+900
-370
1
1
-1.74818-1.85125-2.39679
Le Havre
Lens
10.6%
71.1%
18.3%
+645
-199
+600
-205
1
1
-1.50828-1.49598-1.69707
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks31-1-1 (0.500)0-0.92273 
Sportsbooks31-1-1 (0.500)0-0.92215 
DRatings32-0-1 (0.833)0-0.84643
0.07630
0.07572

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 04/15/24
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Paris Saint-Germain (18-1-9, 63 pts)22.11.810.176.3100.0%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2Brest (15-6-8, 53 pts)16.67.99.559.30.0%59.6%40.1%0.0%
3Monaco (15-6-7, 52 pts)17.67.78.861.50.0%80.3%19.7%0.0%
4Lille (13-5-10, 49 pts)15.76.611.758.80.0%59.1%39.7%0.0%
5Nice (12-8-8, 44 pts)13.910.59.651.20.0%0.9%37.8%0.0%
6Lens (12-10-7, 43 pts)13.911.78.450.10.0%0.0%26.8%0.0%
7Lyon (12-12-5, 41 pts)13.713.86.447.70.0%0.0%3.9%0.0%
8Reims (11-11-7, 40 pts)12.613.08.346.20.0%0.0%1.7%0.0%
9Marseille (10-9-9, 39 pts)13.010.410.549.60.0%0.1%25.5%0.0%
10Rennes (10-10-9, 39 pts)12.211.410.447.00.0%0.0%4.6%0.0%
11Toulouse (9-11-9, 36 pts)10.313.310.441.30.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
12Strasbourg (9-11-9, 36 pts)10.812.710.542.90.0%0.0%0.2%0.0%
13Montpellier (8-11-10, 34 pts)9.812.811.440.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
14Nantes (9-16-4, 31 pts)10.617.95.537.30.0%0.0%0.0%0.7%
15Le Havre (6-13-10, 28 pts)7.115.711.232.50.0%0.0%0.0%23.3%
16Lorient (6-14-8, 26 pts)7.616.79.632.60.0%0.0%0.0%24.5%
17Metz (7-17-5, 26 pts)8.219.76.230.60.0%0.0%0.0%60.1%
18Clermont Foot (4-15-10, 22 pts)5.317.311.427.40.0%0.0%0.0%91.4%

Predictions Methodology

Ligue 1 is a twenty team league that plays in the 38 game season. The top three finishers make Champions League and the 4th place team makes Europa League. The two teams that finish at the bottom of the table are relegated to Ligue 2.