France Ligue 1 Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for February 5, 2023

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Nice
Marseille 		18.8%
58.1%		23.0%
+459
-143
+420
-145
0.91
1.79		2.70
o2½+105
u2½-115
o2½-105
u2½-115
Games for Feb 4, 2023
Games for Feb 10, 2023

Games In Progress

TimeTeamsOrig.
Win %		Orig.
Draw %		Closing
ML		Orig. Total
Goals		Closing
O/U		PeriodCurrent
Score
Lens
Brest 		47.4%
27.4%		25.2%
-113
+358
-125
+365
2.68
o2½+106
u2½-115
o2½+100
u2½-120
2nd H
72:00		0
1

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Montpellier
Strasbourg		19.2%
58.5%		22.2%
+292
+115
+290
+105
0
2		-0.77971-0.76845-0.53546
Angers
Lorient		15.5%
63.9%		20.6%
+348
+102
+295
-105
0
0		-1.28096-1.30258-1.58211
Reims
Auxerre		32.1%
39.5%		28.4%
+100
+308
-105
+300
0
0		-1.31360-1.28910-1.25825
Nantes
Ajaccio		30.9%
38.7%		30.4%
+233
+166
+200
+170
2
0		-1.21807-1.14602-1.17419
Monaco
Clermont Foot		53.7%
22.1%		24.2%
-113
+355
-125
+340
2
0		-0.65072-0.63951-0.62122
Lille
Rennes		27.7%
45.5%		26.8%
+221
+148
+210
+135
3
1		-1.17944-1.18127-1.28320
Lyon
Troyes		53.6%
22.4%		24.0%
-156
+440
-160
+415
3
1		-0.51691-0.53479-0.62325
Toulouse
Paris Saint-Germain		3.2%
88.7%		8.0%

+575
-250
1
2		-0.38632-0.11972
Strasbourg
Rennes		15.5%
63.5%		21.0%
+604
-175
+530
-180
0
3		-0.46837-0.49213-0.45456
Nice
Lens		17.4%
61.1%		21.5%
+457
-125
+440
-135
1
0		-1.73721-1.73472-1.74749
Brest
Lyon		11.1%
72.6%		16.3%
+524
-185
+500
-190
0
0		-1.55249-1.54721-1.81511
Paris Saint-Germain
Montpellier		81.2%
6.5%		12.3%

-330
+750
3
1		-0.31516-0.20806
Auxerre
Monaco		8.6%
76.8%		14.5%
+792
-257
+750
-290
2
3		-0.35125-0.34670-0.26343
Troyes
Toulouse		26.5%
47.0%		26.5%
+412
-144
+385
-150
1
4		-0.54523-0.55970-0.75470
Lorient
Reims		30.1%
41.9%		28.0%
+375
-121
+350
-125
2
4		-0.61869-0.63824-0.87046
Clermont Foot
Lille		10.0%
72.6%		17.4%
+590
-174
+550
-185
0
0		-1.45299-1.44740-1.74772
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks73-2-2 (0.571)0-0.99134 
Sportsbooks73-2-2 (0.571)0-0.98025 
DRatings73-2-2 (0.571)0-1.01110
-0.01975
-0.03085

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 01/30/23
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Paris Saint-Germain (15-2-2, 47 pts)28.04.65.489.595.9%99.8%0.2%0.0%
2Lens (13-1-5, 44 pts)21.86.110.175.52.4%76.3%20.2%0.0%
3Marseille (13-3-3, 42 pts)21.68.38.173.01.1%64.9%28.5%0.0%
4Monaco (11-4-4, 37 pts)19.79.29.168.30.6%27.9%47.7%0.0%
5Rennes (11-4-4, 37 pts)19.49.49.267.30.0%19.2%50.8%0.0%
6Lille (10-5-4, 34 pts)18.610.29.264.90.0%10.4%37.7%0.0%
7Lorient (9-5-5, 32 pts)15.312.210.556.40.0%0.6%4.8%0.0%
8Clermont Foot (8-7-4, 28 pts)13.315.69.149.10.0%0.0%0.1%1.5%
9Lyon (7-8-4, 25 pts)16.113.08.957.10.0%0.9%8.4%0.0%
10Nice (6-6-7, 25 pts)13.112.612.351.70.0%0.0%1.2%0.5%
11Reims (5-4-10, 25 pts)10.811.915.347.60.0%0.0%0.3%3.3%
12Toulouse (6-8-5, 23 pts)11.516.410.144.60.0%0.0%0.1%9.9%
13Nantes (4-6-9, 21 pts)9.614.114.343.00.0%0.0%0.0%11.1%
14Troyes (4-9-6, 18 pts)9.717.311.040.10.0%0.0%0.0%27.6%
15Montpellier (5-12-2, 17 pts)10.420.57.238.20.0%0.0%0.0%40.3%
16Strasbourg (2-8-9, 15 pts)8.515.214.339.70.0%0.0%0.0%27.6%
17Brest (3-10-6, 15 pts)9.117.711.338.50.0%0.0%0.0%38.3%
18Ajaccio (4-12-3, 15 pts)9.020.98.135.10.0%0.0%0.0%66.6%
19Auxerre (3-12-4, 13 pts)8.020.99.133.20.0%0.0%0.0%78.6%
20Angers (2-15-2, 8 pts)6.824.27.027.50.0%0.0%0.0%94.7%

Predictions Methodology

Ligue 1 is a twenty team league that plays in the 38 game season. The top three finishers make Champions League and the 4th place team makes Europa League. The two teams that finish at the bottom of the table are relegated to Ligue 2.