France Ligue 1 Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for January 24, 2025

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Saint-Etienne
Auxerre 		25.3%
49.9%		24.8%
+289
-104

1.08
1.61		2.69
o2¾+102
u2¾-117

Games for Jan 23, 2025
Games for Jan 25, 2025

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Strasbourg
Marseille		17.0%
61.6%		21.5%
+460
-168
+440
-175
1
1		-1.53137-1.52033-1.53851
Le Havre
Reims		17.5%
57.9%		24.6%
+442
-142
+435
-150
1
1		-1.38830-1.38390-1.40218
Auxerre
Angers		31.7%
41.2%		27.2%
+227
+142
+225
+125
0
2		-0.90560-0.86034-0.88753
Nantes
Saint-Etienne		37.4%
34.9%		27.7%
+148
+211
+155
+195
1
1		-1.22132-1.18375-1.28244
Toulouse
Lyon		18.1%
60.7%		21.2%
+335
-122
+295
-115
0
0		-1.41531-1.38494-1.55268
Brest
Rennes		22.0%
54.3%		23.7%
+320
+104
+330
-105
2
1		-1.46413-1.50973-1.51426
Paris Saint-Germain
Lens		60.3%
17.8%		21.9%
-112
+310
-120
+310
2
1		-0.67217-0.65089-0.50635
Nice
Lille		19.6%
56.2%		24.2%
+315
-101
+250
+125
1
2		-0.71300-0.83492-0.57590
Monaco
Montpellier		59.3%
19.4%		21.3%
-160
+435
-180
+435
1
2		-1.70128-1.72777-1.63928
Saint-Etienne
Paris Saint-Germain		3.8%
87.6%		8.7%
+2100
-850
+2000
-975
1
2		-0.14604-0.14628-0.13275
Angers
Montpellier		20.3%
57.0%		22.6%
+282
+112
+275
+110
3
1		-1.35926-1.37105-1.59288
Strasbourg
Toulouse		26.6%
47.9%		25.5%
+301
-101
+340
-105
2
1		-1.41799-1.51467-1.32426
Lens
Le Havre		48.3%
24.6%		27.1%
-173
+533
-185
+550
2
1		-0.48553-0.48375-0.72871
Marseille
Rennes		35.3%
37.0%		27.7%
+136
+225
+135
+220
2
1		-0.89077-0.90372-1.04066
Nice
Reims		40.3%
30.8%		28.8%
+157
+188
+160
+175
4
2		-0.97389-1.00550-0.90793
Lyon
Brest		39.0%
34.3%		26.7%
+111
+260
+110
+260
1
2		-1.30626-1.32791-1.06930
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 01/13/25
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Paris Saint-Germain (13-0-4, 43 pts)23.62.97.578.398.2%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2Marseille (11-3-3, 36 pts)18.48.07.662.71.3%76.3%18.0%0.0%
3Monaco (9-4-4, 31 pts)16.78.68.758.90.3%46.4%34.6%0.0%
4Nice (8-3-6, 30 pts)14.78.510.854.90.2%21.8%35.3%0.0%
5Lille (7-2-8, 29 pts)14.76.612.756.80.0%33.3%38.6%0.0%
6Lyon (8-5-4, 28 pts)15.110.28.854.00.0%13.4%34.7%0.0%
7Lens (7-4-6, 27 pts)13.89.410.852.20.0%7.3%22.7%0.0%
8Toulouse (7-7-3, 24 pts)13.013.37.746.70.0%0.8%6.6%0.1%
9Strasbourg (6-6-5, 23 pts)11.912.39.845.60.0%0.4%5.4%0.1%
10Auxerre (6-7-4, 22 pts)10.315.18.639.50.0%0.0%0.4%5.4%
11Brest (7-9-1, 22 pts)12.615.65.943.50.0%0.2%2.6%1.1%
12Reims (5-7-5, 20 pts)10.114.09.940.20.0%0.0%0.3%2.9%
13Angers (5-8-4, 19 pts)9.416.18.636.60.0%0.0%0.1%14.1%
14Rennes (5-10-2, 17 pts)11.315.96.840.60.0%0.1%0.7%3.0%
15Nantes (3-7-7, 16 pts)8.613.611.737.60.0%0.0%0.0%9.0%
16Saint-Etienne (5-11-1, 16 pts)9.419.05.633.80.0%0.0%0.0%32.7%
17Le Havre (4-13-0, 12 pts)8.620.94.530.30.0%0.0%0.0%62.7%
18Montpellier (2-12-3, 9 pts)7.119.27.729.10.0%0.0%0.0%68.9%

Predictions Methodology

Ligue 1 is a twenty team league that plays in the 38 game season. The top three finishers make Champions League and the 4th place team makes Europa League. The two teams that finish at the bottom of the table are relegated to Ligue 2.