France Ligue 1 Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for October 4, 2024

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Angers
Marseille 		9.0%
75.4%		15.5%
+1271
-450
+1175
-485
0.73
2.47		3.20
o3¼+105
u3¼-122
o3-125
u3+105
Games for Oct 3, 2024
Games for Oct 5, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Marseille
Strasbourg		37.4%
34.7%		27.8%
+118
+245
+115
+220
0
1		-1.24008-1.21345-1.12865
Saint-Etienne
Nantes		20.4%
56.5%		23.1%
+406
-130
+370
-130
2
2		-1.37038-1.35545-1.46586
Reims
Angers		32.0%
39.6%		28.4%
+120
+280
+115
+260
3
1		-0.80898-0.81482-1.13922
Lyon
Toulouse		37.7%
35.4%		26.9%
+200
+145
+190
+140
2
1		-1.12233-1.11480-1.02745
Montpellier
Monaco		13.8%
68.1%		18.1%
+902
-280
+1025
-385
1
2		-0.29347-0.25614-0.34862
Lille
Le Havre		52.0%
21.6%		26.3%
-109
+350
-115
+335
3
0		-0.65788-0.67495-0.65298
Nice
Lens		22.5%
52.6%		24.9%
+342
+100
+310
-105
0
0		-1.26468-1.27279-1.39155
Rennes
Paris Saint-Germain		7.3%
79.3%		13.4%
+615
-230
+675
-270
1
3		-0.39527-0.36489-0.23205
Brest
Auxerre		38.4%
34.1%		27.5%
+147
+205
+155
+180
0
3		-1.13747-1.08063-1.07561
Marseille
Lyon		23.3%
53.0%		23.7%
+142
+187
+135
+185
3
2		-0.90827-0.90357-1.45740
Toulouse
Brest		26.2%
48.5%		25.3%
+195
+180
+190
+160
0
2		-1.01550-0.99196-0.72352
Auxerre
Montpellier		15.9%
63.9%		20.2%
+254
+125
+235
+115
2
3		-0.81184-0.81362-0.44827
Nantes
Angers		38.0%
33.8%		28.1%
+142
+224
+145
+205
1
1		-1.21848-1.21053-1.26862
Le Havre
Monaco		10.7%
71.7%		17.6%
+750
-230
+675
-250
1
3		-0.36083-0.38682-0.33313
Paris Saint-Germain
Reims		71.7%
10.6%		17.7%
-255
+695
-250
+650
1
1		-1.68913-1.63969-1.73398
Lens
Rennes		32.4%
40.4%		27.2%
+208
+140
+200
+140
1
1		-1.26908-1.25632-1.30067
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 09/30/24
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Paris Saint-Germain (5-0-1, 16 pts)21.84.97.372.785.0%98.9%0.9%0.0%
2Monaco (5-0-1, 16 pts)17.28.18.760.48.5%67.0%19.6%0.0%
3Marseille (4-1-1, 13 pts)15.79.58.856.02.9%41.8%29.7%0.0%
4Reims (3-1-2, 11 pts)11.512.79.944.30.0%2.2%8.8%3.2%
5Lille (3-2-1, 10 pts)15.49.88.855.02.3%37.2%29.7%0.0%
6Lens (2-0-4, 10 pts)13.38.911.851.80.4%19.4%27.4%0.0%
7Nantes (2-1-3, 9 pts)11.012.110.943.90.2%2.9%8.7%4.3%
8Strasbourg (2-1-3, 9 pts)11.411.711.045.10.0%3.7%10.5%3.3%
9Nice (2-2-2, 8 pts)12.111.910.046.20.2%6.1%15.1%1.5%
10Rennes (2-3-1, 7 pts)12.612.59.046.70.1%7.4%13.8%2.4%
11Lyon (2-3-1, 7 pts)13.311.78.949.00.3%9.9%20.1%1.9%
12Auxerre (2-4-0, 6 pts)9.117.37.634.90.0%0.0%1.3%38.4%
13Brest (2-4-0, 6 pts)11.314.78.041.90.0%1.5%4.2%8.9%
14Le Havre (2-4-0, 6 pts)10.016.27.837.70.0%0.2%1.3%24.8%
15Toulouse (1-3-2, 5 pts)10.713.410.042.00.1%1.0%5.5%7.3%
16Montpellier (1-4-1, 4 pts)10.114.99.039.30.0%0.6%2.5%16.8%
17Saint-Etienne (1-4-1, 4 pts)9.216.28.636.20.0%0.2%0.5%30.6%
18Angers (0-4-2, 2 pts)7.516.99.632.10.0%0.0%0.4%56.6%

Predictions Methodology

Ligue 1 is a twenty team league that plays in the 38 game season. The top three finishers make Champions League and the 4th place team makes Europa League. The two teams that finish at the bottom of the table are relegated to Ligue 2.