France Ligue 1 Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for December 3, 2023

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Paris Saint-Germain
Le Havre 		78.7%
6.9%		14.5%
-317
+872
-315
+810
2.46
0.59		3.05
o3-114
u3+106
o3-125
u3+105
Clermont Foot
Brest 		20.3%
55.9%		23.8%
+365
-125
+345
-125
0.94
1.72		2.66
o2½+102
u2½-120
o2½+100
u2½-120
Montpellier
Monaco 		20.0%
58.4%		21.6%
+405
-152
+385
-160
1.06
1.97		3.03
o3-122
u3+108
o3-125
u3+105
Lorient
Toulouse 		19.9%
57.5%		22.7%
+300
+104
+280
+100
0.98
1.84		2.82
o2½-102
u2½-105
o2½-115
u2½-105
Rennes
Marseille 		19.8%
57.0%		23.2%
+327
-113
+290
-115
0.94
1.78		2.72
o2½-119
u2¾-122
o2½-120
u2½+100
Games for Dec 2, 2023
Games for Dec 4, 2023

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Strasbourg
Reims		28.6%
43.8%		27.6%
+407
-134
+360
-135
1
2		-0.58216-0.60462-0.82551
Clermont Foot
Montpellier		15.0%
64.7%		20.3%
+336
-108
+320
-115
1
1		-1.31703-1.34059-1.59509
Lille
Lyon		30.1%
43.3%		26.5%
+144
+198
+140
+200
2
0		-0.91872-0.92284-1.19948
Reims
Rennes		18.1%
58.6%		23.3%
+251
+113
+250
+110
1
3		-0.78047-0.79239-0.53462
Le Havre
Nantes		12.0%
67.7%		20.3%
+330
+101
+275
+105
0
0		-1.24556-1.26058-1.59682
Brest
Montpellier		20.0%
57.9%		22.1%
+221
+133
+225
+125
3
1		-1.19637-1.22806-1.61144
Marseille
Strasbourg		41.1%
31.6%		27.3%
-108
+335
-110
+300
1
1		-1.32754-1.33124-1.29960
Lens
Clermont Foot		45.8%
27.3%		26.8%
+105
+308
+100
+290
3
0		-0.73628-0.74244-0.77997
Monaco
Paris Saint-Germain		8.2%
77.9%		13.9%
+526
-219
+500
-220
2
5		-0.41685-0.42745-0.24941
Marseille
Lens		35.0%
37.1%		27.9%
+225
+135
+220
+130
0
1		-0.87724-0.87347-0.99169
Toulouse
Lille		15.9%
63.2%		20.9%
+535
-176
+575
-215
1
1		-1.53856-1.55566-1.56777
Lorient
Clermont Foot		29.1%
43.6%		27.4%
+250
+125
+255
+115
0
1		-0.83919-0.80979-0.83126
Monaco
Le Havre		53.5%
21.7%		24.8%
-134
+392
-135
+345
0
0		-1.43058-1.42474-1.39473
Paris Saint-Germain
Reims		67.8%
12.6%		19.5%
-157
+423
-185
+455
3
0		-0.52077-0.48237-0.38805
Brest
Monaco		14.6%
66.3%		19.0%
+345
-124
+345
-135
0
2		-0.61926-0.59649-0.41053
Le Havre
Toulouse		15.0%
63.6%		21.5%
+310
+104
+310
+100
2
1		-1.43469-1.46132-1.90019
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.58216 
Sportsbooks11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.60462 
DRatings11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.82551
-0.24335
-0.22089

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 11/27/23
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Paris Saint-Germain (9-1-3, 30 pts)22.64.37.274.897.1%99.7%0.3%0.0%
2Nice (8-0-5, 29 pts)15.37.711.056.81.0%51.8%29.4%0.0%
3Monaco (7-3-3, 24 pts)15.49.69.055.20.7%46.3%29.5%0.0%
4Lille (6-2-5, 23 pts)14.98.410.855.30.7%45.9%28.6%0.0%
5Reims (6-5-2, 20 pts)12.913.08.046.80.1%6.5%12.6%1.0%
6Lens (5-4-4, 19 pts)13.010.910.249.10.1%13.8%22.2%0.5%
7Brest (5-4-3, 18 pts)11.813.09.244.60.0%3.2%8.6%3.3%
8Le Havre (3-3-7, 16 pts)8.013.712.336.30.0%0.3%0.2%29.8%
9Metz (4-5-4, 16 pts)9.115.49.536.70.0%0.1%0.9%24.8%
10Rennes (3-4-6, 15 pts)11.510.511.946.50.1%7.4%16.8%1.8%
11Nantes (4-6-3, 15 pts)11.613.49.043.80.0%2.2%7.0%4.8%
12Marseille (3-4-5, 14 pts)13.110.010.950.10.2%17.9%25.6%0.3%
13Montpellier (3-5-4, 13 pts)10.912.810.243.00.0%2.5%6.6%5.1%
14Strasbourg (3-5-4, 13 pts)11.112.810.243.30.0%1.7%7.9%5.5%
15Toulouse (2-5-6, 12 pts)8.813.311.938.20.0%0.0%1.9%18.3%
16Lorient (2-6-5, 11 pts)8.015.110.934.90.0%0.0%0.2%35.9%
17Clermont Foot (2-7-3, 9 pts)7.917.19.032.60.0%0.0%0.1%54.7%
18Lyon (1-7-4, 7 pts)9.714.110.239.30.0%0.7%1.6%14.2%

Predictions Methodology

Ligue 1 is a twenty team league that plays in the 38 game season. The top three finishers make Champions League and the 4th place team makes Europa League. The two teams that finish at the bottom of the table are relegated to Ligue 2.