France Ligue 1 Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for December 3, 2023

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML
GoalsTotal
Goals
Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Paris Saint-Germain
Le Havre
78.7%
6.9%
14.5%
-317
+872
-315
+810
2.46
0.59
3.05
o3-114
u3+106
o3-125
u3+105
Clermont Foot
Brest
20.3%
55.9%
23.8%
+365
-125
+345
-125
0.94
1.72
2.66
o2½+102
u2½-120
o2½+100
u2½-120
Montpellier
Monaco
20.0%
58.4%
21.6%
+405
-152
+385
-160
1.06
1.97
3.03
o3-122
u3+108
o3-125
u3+105
Lorient
Toulouse
19.9%
57.5%
22.7%
+300
+104
+280
+100
0.98
1.84
2.82
o2½-102
u2½-105
o2½-115
u2½-105
Rennes
Marseille
19.8%
57.0%
23.2%
+327
-113
+290
-115
0.94
1.78
2.72
o2½-119
u2¾-122
o2½-120
u2½+100
Games for Dec 2, 2023
Games for Dec 4, 2023

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML
Final
Goals
Sportsbook
Log Loss
DRatings
Log Loss
Strasbourg
Reims
28.6%
43.8%
27.6%
+407
-134
+360
-135
1
2
-0.58216-0.60462-0.82551
Clermont Foot
Montpellier
15.0%
64.7%
20.3%
+336
-108
+320
-115
1
1
-1.31703-1.34059-1.59509
Lille
Lyon
30.1%
43.3%
26.5%
+144
+198
+140
+200
2
0
-0.91872-0.92284-1.19948
Reims
Rennes
18.1%
58.6%
23.3%
+251
+113
+250
+110
1
3
-0.78047-0.79239-0.53462
Le Havre
Nantes
12.0%
67.7%
20.3%
+330
+101
+275
+105
0
0
-1.24556-1.26058-1.59682
Brest
Montpellier
20.0%
57.9%
22.1%
+221
+133
+225
+125
3
1
-1.19637-1.22806-1.61144
Marseille
Strasbourg
41.1%
31.6%
27.3%
-108
+335
-110
+300
1
1
-1.32754-1.33124-1.29960
Lens
Clermont Foot
45.8%
27.3%
26.8%
+105
+308
+100
+290
3
0
-0.73628-0.74244-0.77997
Monaco
Paris Saint-Germain
8.2%
77.9%
13.9%
+526
-219
+500
-220
2
5
-0.41685-0.42745-0.24941
Marseille
Lens
35.0%
37.1%
27.9%
+225
+135
+220
+130
0
1
-0.87724-0.87347-0.99169
Toulouse
Lille
15.9%
63.2%
20.9%
+535
-176
+575
-215
1
1
-1.53856-1.55566-1.56777
Lorient
Clermont Foot
29.1%
43.6%
27.4%
+250
+125
+255
+115
0
1
-0.83919-0.80979-0.83126
Monaco
Le Havre
53.5%
21.7%
24.8%
-134
+392
-135
+345
0
0
-1.43058-1.42474-1.39473
Paris Saint-Germain
Reims
67.8%
12.6%
19.5%
-157
+423
-185
+455
3
0
-0.52077-0.48237-0.38805
Brest
Monaco
14.6%
66.3%
19.0%
+345
-124
+345
-135
0
2
-0.61926-0.59649-0.41053
Le Havre
Toulouse
15.0%
63.6%
21.5%
+310
+104
+310
+100
2
1
-1.43469-1.46132-1.90019
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.58216 
Sportsbooks11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.60462 
DRatings11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.82551
-0.24335
-0.22089

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 11/27/23
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Paris Saint-Germain (9-1-3, 30 pts)22.64.37.274.897.1%99.7%0.3%0.0%
2Nice (8-0-5, 29 pts)15.37.711.056.81.0%51.8%29.4%0.0%
3Monaco (7-3-3, 24 pts)15.49.69.055.20.7%46.3%29.5%0.0%
4Lille (6-2-5, 23 pts)14.98.410.855.30.7%45.9%28.6%0.0%
5Reims (6-5-2, 20 pts)12.913.08.046.80.1%6.5%12.6%1.0%
6Lens (5-4-4, 19 pts)13.010.910.249.10.1%13.8%22.2%0.5%
7Brest (5-4-3, 18 pts)11.813.09.244.60.0%3.2%8.6%3.3%
8Le Havre (3-3-7, 16 pts)8.013.712.336.30.0%0.3%0.2%29.8%
9Metz (4-5-4, 16 pts)9.115.49.536.70.0%0.1%0.9%24.8%
10Rennes (3-4-6, 15 pts)11.510.511.946.50.1%7.4%16.8%1.8%
11Nantes (4-6-3, 15 pts)11.613.49.043.80.0%2.2%7.0%4.8%
12Marseille (3-4-5, 14 pts)13.110.010.950.10.2%17.9%25.6%0.3%
13Montpellier (3-5-4, 13 pts)10.912.810.243.00.0%2.5%6.6%5.1%
14Strasbourg (3-5-4, 13 pts)11.112.810.243.30.0%1.7%7.9%5.5%
15Toulouse (2-5-6, 12 pts)8.813.311.938.20.0%0.0%1.9%18.3%
16Lorient (2-6-5, 11 pts)8.015.110.934.90.0%0.0%0.2%35.9%
17Clermont Foot (2-7-3, 9 pts)7.917.19.032.60.0%0.0%0.1%54.7%
18Lyon (1-7-4, 7 pts)9.714.110.239.30.0%0.7%1.6%14.2%

Predictions Methodology

Ligue 1 is a twenty team league that plays in the 38 game season. The top three finishers make Champions League and the 4th place team makes Europa League. The two teams that finish at the bottom of the table are relegated to Ligue 2.