France Ligue 1 Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for October 22, 2021

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
Line		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Angers
Saint-Etienne 		29.3%
44.8%		25.8%
+182
+162

0.99
1.52		2.51
o2¼-115
u2½-120

Volatility Bet Value Active
Games for Oct 21, 2021
Games for Oct 23, 2021

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
Line		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Lorient
Marseille		19.5%
63.4%		17.0%
+540
-165
+525
-185
1
4		-0.48253-0.48101-0.45553
Lens
Montpellier		33.4%
39.9%		26.7%
+156
+195
+150
+190
0
1		-1.09623-1.11590-0.91869
Rennes
Metz		30.6%
41.3%		28.2%
-145
+456
-170
+500
3
0		-0.53883-0.50788-1.18538
Reims
Brest		32.2%
39.8%		28.0%
+256
+135
+250
+120
1
1		-1.07610-1.07203-1.02720
Nantes
Bordeaux		28.6%
46.2%		25.2%
+181
+180
+205
+160
1
1		-1.05098-1.06000-1.01211
Saint-Etienne
Strasbourg		28.4%
46.4%		25.1%
+260
+125
+235
+125
1
5		-0.82462-0.86034-0.76746
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.48253 
Sportsbooks11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.48101 
DRatings11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.45553
0.02700
0.02548

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 10/17/21
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Paris Saint-Germain (9-1-0, 27 pts)27.05.35.786.797.1%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2Lens (5-2-3, 18 pts)15.112.110.856.00.1%8.9%21.3%0.2%
3Nice (5-2-2, 17 pts)15.112.710.355.40.1%10.6%18.7%0.3%
4Marseille (5-2-2, 17 pts)17.510.69.962.40.5%36.2%32.8%0.0%
5Angers (4-2-4, 16 pts)12.613.711.849.40.0%1.7%5.1%1.7%
6Lyon (4-2-4, 16 pts)17.69.011.364.20.9%46.5%30.3%0.0%
7Rennes (4-3-3, 15 pts)13.513.710.851.30.0%3.4%7.9%0.8%
8Strasbourg (4-4-2, 14 pts)13.115.19.849.20.0%1.4%5.6%1.9%
9Nantes (4-4-2, 14 pts)11.517.09.544.10.0%0.2%1.6%10.5%
10Monaco (4-4-2, 14 pts)18.110.89.163.50.6%45.2%30.0%0.0%
11Lille (4-4-2, 14 pts)18.210.79.163.70.7%41.0%31.4%0.0%
12Lorient (3-2-5, 14 pts)11.413.912.746.90.0%0.6%2.4%6.1%
13Montpellier (3-3-4, 13 pts)12.314.011.748.60.0%1.3%3.2%3.0%
14Clermont Foot (3-3-4, 13 pts)12.813.112.150.50.0%2.1%6.7%1.9%
15Reims (2-3-5, 11 pts)10.614.512.944.70.0%0.7%2.1%7.6%
16Troyes (2-5-3, 9 pts)9.917.210.940.50.0%0.0%0.0%22.4%
17Bordeaux (1-4-5, 8 pts)8.816.612.539.00.0%0.0%0.2%35.4%
18Metz (1-6-3, 6 pts)9.917.111.040.60.0%0.2%0.5%26.1%
19Brest (0-5-5, 5 pts)8.017.312.636.80.0%0.0%0.0%43.2%
20Saint-Etienne (0-6-4, 4 pts)8.817.311.938.30.0%0.0%0.2%38.9%

Predictions Methodology

Ligue 1 is a twenty team league that plays in the 38 game season. The top three finishers make Champions League and the 4th place team makes Europa League. The two teams that finish at the bottom of the table are relegated to Ligue 2.