France Ligue 1 Predictions

Updated

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Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Reims
Metz		31.1%
40.2%		28.7%
+253
+120
+250
+120
1
1		-1.24890-1.22550-1.24974
Brest
Nice		16.3%
62.1%		21.6%
+520
-190
+485
-200
0
6		-0.44735-0.45678-0.47636
Montpellier
Nantes		17.4%
61.1%		21.5%
+550
-175
+510
-185
0
3		-0.47451-0.48203-0.49209
Reims
Lille		9.3%
73.7%		17.0%
+800
-264
+675
-250
1
2		-0.34950-0.38480-0.30583
Rennes
Marseille		18.4%
59.5%		22.0%
+409
-155
+370
-150
2
4		-0.52401-0.56044-0.51891
Auxerre
Paris Saint-Germain		3.7%
87.5%		8.8%
+1900
-750
+1650
-800
1
3		-0.15948-0.16780-0.13307
Toulouse
Saint-Etienne		43.2%
30.7%		26.1%
+190
+137
+200
+130
3
2		-1.09419-1.12609-0.83965
Angers
Lyon		7.2%
79.7%		13.1%
+1500
-575
+1500
-430
0
2		-0.19389-0.20411-0.22735
Le Havre
Strasbourg		12.1%
68.2%		19.7%
+450
-182
+480
-210
3
2		-1.73274-1.80649-2.11594
Monaco
Lens		37.3%
35.7%		26.9%
+145
+174
+145
+270
0
4		-1.03965-1.25569-1.02868
Lille
Brest		43.5%
29.4%		27.1%
-138
+395
-150
+390
0
2		-1.62481-1.63897-1.22377
Lyon
Monaco		24.0%
52.8%		23.2%
+293
-120
+285
-125
0
2		-0.63296-0.63713-0.63927
Nice
Rennes		30.8%
41.7%		27.5%
+119
+220
+110
+235
0
2		-1.19491-1.24612-0.87512
Paris Saint-Germain
Montpellier		81.3%
6.5%		12.2%
-255
+605
-270
+590
4
1		-0.36494-0.36544-0.20748
Strasbourg
Angers		45.6%
28.2%		26.2%
-120
+347
-125
+330
1
2		-1.52588-1.50860-1.26517
Lens
Toulouse		31.1%
42.0%		26.9%
+214
+130
+215
+125
1
1		-1.31148-1.28884-1.31327
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks10-0-1 (0.500)0-1.24890 
Sportsbooks10-0-1 (0.500)0-1.22550 
DRatings10-0-1 (0.500)0-1.24974
-0.00084
-0.02424

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 05/20/25
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Paris Saint-Germain (26-2-6, 84 pts)26.02.06.084.0100.0%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2Marseille (20-9-5, 65 pts)20.09.05.065.00.0%100.0%0.0%0.0%
3Monaco (18-9-7, 61 pts)18.09.07.061.00.0%100.0%0.0%0.0%
4Nice (17-8-9, 60 pts)17.08.09.060.00.0%100.0%0.0%0.0%
5Lille (17-8-9, 60 pts)17.08.09.060.00.0%0.0%100.0%0.0%
6Lyon (17-11-6, 57 pts)17.011.06.057.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
7Strasbourg (16-9-9, 57 pts)16.09.09.057.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
8Lens (15-12-7, 52 pts)15.012.07.052.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
9Brest (15-14-5, 50 pts)15.014.05.050.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
10Toulouse (11-14-9, 42 pts)11.014.09.042.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
11Auxerre (11-14-9, 42 pts)11.014.09.042.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
12Rennes (13-19-2, 41 pts)13.019.02.041.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
13Nantes (8-14-12, 36 pts)8.014.012.036.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
14Angers (10-18-6, 36 pts)10.018.06.036.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
15Le Havre (10-20-4, 34 pts)10.020.04.034.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
16Reims (8-17-9, 33 pts)8.817.69.636.10.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
17Saint-Etienne (8-20-6, 30 pts)8.020.06.030.00.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%
18Montpellier (4-26-4, 16 pts)4.026.04.016.00.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%

Predictions Methodology

Ligue 1 is a twenty team league that plays in the 38 game season. The top three finishers make Champions League and the 4th place team makes Europa League. The two teams that finish at the bottom of the table are relegated to Ligue 2.