German Bundesliga Predictions

Updated

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Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Borussia Monchengladbach
VfL Bochum		44.5%
30.9%		24.6%
+160
+179
+155
+175
1
2		-1.04146-1.05225-1.17451
Werder Bremen
Bayern Munich		4.2%
87.3%		8.5%
+1531
-565
+1400
-600
1
6		-0.18428-0.19819-0.13545
Dortmund
Wolfsburg		54.7%
22.9%		22.5%
+140
+199
+125
+210
0
2		-1.11786-1.17896-1.47556
FC Koln
Freiburg		20.4%
58.1%		21.5%
+450
-155
+455
-155
0
2		-0.51669-0.53219-0.54264
Union Berlin
Bayer 04 Leverkusen		21.0%
56.7%		22.2%
+263
+130
+230
+135
0
5		-0.85071-0.89465-0.56720
Schalke 04
Werder Bremen		19.5%
59.7%		20.8%
+477
-171
+460
-180
1
2		-0.48191-0.48456-0.51599
Bayern Munich
Hertha BSC		79.6%
7.7%		12.6%
-360
+975
-400
+969
3
2		-0.26713-0.26192-0.22789
Eintracht Frankfurt
Augsburg		40.4%
34.1%		25.4%
-129
+350
-134
+338
2
1		-0.59290-0.60719-0.90547
RB Leipzig
Hoffenheim		40.4%
34.2%		25.4%
+158
+177
+145
+185
3
1		-0.96648-0.92857-0.90733
Wolfsburg
Mainz 05		19.9%
58.0%		22.1%
+283
+104
+293
+100
3
0		-1.36783-1.39667-1.61239
VfL Bochum
Dortmund		7.1%
81.2%		11.7%
+1025
-360
+1025
-400
0
3		-0.26677-0.27211-0.20835
VfB Stuttgart
Borussia Monchengladbach		20.0%
59.0%		20.9%
+203
+132
+210
+130
1
3		-0.85956-0.86377-0.52743
Hoffenheim
FC Koln		32.3%
43.1%		24.5%
+152
+229
+120
+220
1
1		-1.27895-1.32479-1.40491
Freiburg
Schalke 04		43.7%
31.0%		25.3%
-115
+340
-115
+315
2
0		-0.65003-0.66734-0.82814
Borussia Monchengladbach
Union Berlin		22.6%
54.9%		22.5%
+315
+104
+310
+100
1
2		-0.72571-0.72233-0.59909
Dortmund
Eintracht Frankfurt		43.7%
32.2%		24.1%
+160
+184
+145
+175
2
1		-0.95197-0.94302-0.82839
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks21-0-1 (0.750)0-0.71816 
Sportsbooks21-0-1 (0.750)0-0.71803 
DRatings21-0-1 (0.750)0-0.84148
-0.12332
-0.12346

Predictions Methodology

The game and score predictions above do not account for injuries, weather or any other random factor that may be cause the outcome to be swayed. See my disclaimer page for information on the benefits and downfalls about these Bundesliga predictions: disclaimer

The German Bundesliga pits all 18 teams against each other in a home-and-home series for a total of 34 games in a season. The top four teams qualify for the Champions League, and the fifth and sixth teams in the final standings qualify for Europa league. The bottom two teams in the Bundesliga get relegated, while the 16th ranked team plays the third ranked team in 2. Bundesliga to determine who will play in the top division for the next season.

These game predictions should be used for entertainment purposes only. The Season Projection for the Bundesliga is based on a simulation with 1,000 iterations.