Italy Serie A Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for October 18, 2021

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
Line
GoalsTotal
Goals
Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Fiorentina
Venezia
50.3%
25.7%
23.9%
-107
+335
-110
+310
1.69
0.87
2.56
o2½-103
u2½-107
o2½-105
u2½-110
Games for Oct 17, 2021

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
Line
Final
Goals
Sportsbook
Log Loss
DRatings
Log Loss
Roma
Juventus
21.1%
62.3%
16.6%
+325
-108
+315
-115
0
1
-0.67637-0.67433-0.47385
Torino
Napoli
14.4%
75.4%
10.2%
+828
-230
+750
-275
0
1
-0.35730-0.35988-0.28181
Atalanta
Empoli
68.3%
18.6%
13.2%
-145
+419
-150
+385
4
1
-0.54306-0.55970-0.38167
Bologna
Udinese
27.6%
49.1%
23.3%
+256
+124
+225
+125
1
1
-1.05933-1.04420-0.99960
Sassuolo
Genoa
41.9%
33.4%
24.7%
+146
+205
+125
+215
2
2
-1.02359-1.02963-0.98286
Sampdoria
Cagliari
32.7%
40.9%
26.4%
+205
+150
+185
+150
1
3
-0.93805-0.96880-0.89316
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.67637 
Sportsbooks11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.67433 
DRatings11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.47385
0.20252
0.20048

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 10/03/21
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Napoli (7-0-0, 21 pts)22.27.97.974.424.4%80.9%15.7%0.0%
2Milan (6-0-1, 19 pts)21.27.88.972.616.0%74.6%19.4%0.0%
3Inter (5-0-2, 17 pts)22.86.09.277.744.4%92.2%6.6%0.0%
4Roma (5-2-0, 15 pts)18.411.28.463.72.2%29.1%35.1%0.0%
5Fiorentina (4-3-0, 12 pts)15.114.38.654.00.0%2.8%10.6%0.7%
6Lazio (3-2-2, 11 pts)16.211.410.458.90.7%10.4%27.7%0.0%
7Juventus (3-2-2, 11 pts)20.38.59.270.28.0%62.6%26.9%0.0%
8Atalanta (3-2-2, 11 pts)19.19.29.767.14.1%43.8%36.9%0.0%
9Bologna (3-2-2, 11 pts)11.915.810.346.00.0%0.1%1.4%7.2%
10Empoli (3-4-0, 9 pts)10.819.37.940.30.0%0.0%0.1%26.1%
11Torino (2-3-2, 8 pts)11.316.110.544.50.0%0.2%1.6%10.8%
12Hellas Verona (2-3-2, 8 pts)11.515.810.745.20.0%0.1%0.9%9.1%
13Udinese (2-3-2, 8 pts)11.615.910.445.30.0%0.1%2.1%7.3%
14Sassuolo (2-4-1, 7 pts)14.913.69.554.10.2%2.9%11.9%0.6%
15Sampdoria (1-3-3, 6 pts)11.714.711.646.70.0%0.2%2.3%5.6%
16Genoa (1-4-2, 5 pts)10.516.910.642.10.0%0.0%0.4%17.7%
17Venezia (1-4-2, 5 pts)7.221.69.230.80.0%0.0%0.0%78.3%
18Salernitana (1-5-1, 4 pts)7.721.78.531.80.0%0.0%0.0%75.2%
19Spezia (1-5-1, 4 pts)9.818.89.438.80.0%0.0%0.2%34.3%
20Cagliari (0-4-3, 3 pts)9.517.311.339.70.0%0.0%0.2%27.1%

Predictions Methodology

Italy’s Serie A features twenty teams that play a home-and-home series with the other nineteen teams in the league for a total of 38 rounds of football. Currently, the top two teams that finish in the Serie A standings qualify for the Champions League Group Stage. The third place team makes Champions League Qualifying and fourth and fifth place teams earn berths to the Europa League. The teams that place in the bottom three of the table are relegated to Italy’s Serie B.