Italy Serie A Predictions

Updated 23 hr ago

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Completed Games

Time	Teams	Win	Draw	Best ML	Final Goals	Sportsbook Log Loss	DRatings Log Loss
05/22/2022 07:00 PM	Cagliari Venezia	32.3% 39.6%	28.1%	-151 +455 -170 +450	0 0	-1.44923-1.48342	-1.26862
05/22/2022 07:00 PM	Udinese Salernitana	48.7% 25.2%	26.1%	+304 -110 +325 -115	4 0	-1.41737-1.48311	-0.71982
05/22/2022 04:00 PM	Milan Sassuolo	48.2% 27.6%	24.3%	-219 +670 -250 +625	3 0	-0.38478-0.38737	-0.73045
05/22/2022 04:00 PM	Sampdoria Inter	5.0% 84.5%	10.5%	+2200 -676 +2100 -850	0 3	-0.15246-0.16125	-0.16792
05/22/2022 10:30 AM	Napoli Spezia	71.0% 11.7%	17.3%	-139 +382 -150 +385	3 0	-0.56606-0.55147	-0.34188
05/21/2022 06:45 PM	Hellas Verona Lazio	16.8% 63.0%	20.2%	+318 -110 +290 -110	3 3	-1.38982-1.35759	-1.60018

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Season Prediction Results

Time Period

	Games	Record (Pct)	No Pick	Log Loss Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model. More on Log Loss	+/-
Sportsbooks	2	0-1-1 (0.250)	0	-1.43330
Sportsbooks	2	0-1-1 (0.250)	0	-1.48326
DRatings	2	1-0-1 (0.750)	0	-0.99422	0.43908 0.48904

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 05/22/22

#	Team	W	L	T	Pts	Win	Champs League	Europa League	Relegation
1	Milan (26-4-8, 86 pts)	26.0	4.0	8.0	86.0	100.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2	Inter (25-4-9, 84 pts)	25.0	4.0	9.0	84.0	0.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%
3	Napoli (24-7-7, 79 pts)	24.0	7.0	7.0	79.0	0.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%
4	Juventus (20-8-10, 70 pts)	20.0	8.0	10.0	70.0	0.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%
5	Lazio (18-10-10, 64 pts)	18.0	10.0	10.0	64.0	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%	0.0%
6	Roma (18-11-9, 63 pts)	18.0	11.0	9.0	63.0	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%	0.0%
7	Fiorentina (19-14-5, 62 pts)	19.0	14.0	5.0	62.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
8	Atalanta (16-11-11, 59 pts)	16.0	11.0	11.0	59.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
9	Hellas Verona (14-13-11, 53 pts)	14.0	13.0	11.0	53.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
10	Torino (13-14-11, 50 pts)	13.0	14.0	11.0	50.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
11	Sassuolo (13-14-11, 50 pts)	13.0	14.0	11.0	50.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
12	Udinese (11-13-14, 47 pts)	11.0	13.0	14.0	47.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
13	Bologna (12-16-10, 46 pts)	12.0	16.0	10.0	46.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
14	Empoli (10-17-11, 41 pts)	10.0	17.0	11.0	41.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
15	Sampdoria (10-22-6, 36 pts)	10.0	22.0	6.0	36.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
16	Spezia (10-22-6, 36 pts)	10.0	22.0	6.0	36.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
17	Salernitana (7-21-10, 31 pts)	7.0	21.0	10.0	31.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
18	Cagliari (6-20-12, 30 pts)	6.0	20.0	12.0	30.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%
19	Genoa (4-18-16, 28 pts)	4.0	18.0	16.0	28.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%
20	Venezia (6-23-9, 27 pts)	6.0	23.0	9.0	27.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%

Predictions Methodology

Italy’s Serie A features twenty teams that play a home-and-home series with the other nineteen teams in the league for a total of 38 rounds of football. Currently, the top two teams that finish in the Serie A standings qualify for the Champions League Group Stage. The third place team makes Champions League Qualifying and fourth and fifth place teams earn berths to the Europa League. The teams that place in the bottom three of the table are relegated to Italy’s Serie B.