Italy Serie A Predictions

Updated

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Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML
Final
Goals
Sportsbook
Log Loss
DRatings
Log Loss
Cagliari
Venezia
32.3%
39.6%
28.1%
-151
+455
-170
+450
0
0
-1.44923-1.48342-1.26862
Udinese
Salernitana
48.7%
25.2%
26.1%
+304
-110
+325
-115
4
0
-1.41737-1.48311-0.71982
Milan
Sassuolo
48.2%
27.6%
24.3%
-219
+670
-250
+625
3
0
-0.38478-0.38737-0.73045
Sampdoria
Inter
5.0%
84.5%
10.5%
+2200
-676
+2100
-850
0
3
-0.15246-0.16125-0.16792
Napoli
Spezia
71.0%
11.7%
17.3%
-139
+382
-150
+385
3
0
-0.56606-0.55147-0.34188
Hellas Verona
Lazio
16.8%
63.0%
20.2%
+318
-110
+290
-110
3
3
-1.38982-1.35759-1.60018
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks20-1-1 (0.250)0-1.43330 
Sportsbooks20-1-1 (0.250)0-1.48326 
DRatings21-0-1 (0.750)0-0.99422
0.43908
0.48904

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 05/22/22
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Milan (26-4-8, 86 pts)26.04.08.086.0100.0%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2Inter (25-4-9, 84 pts)25.04.09.084.00.0%100.0%0.0%0.0%
3Napoli (24-7-7, 79 pts)24.07.07.079.00.0%100.0%0.0%0.0%
4Juventus (20-8-10, 70 pts)20.08.010.070.00.0%100.0%0.0%0.0%
5Lazio (18-10-10, 64 pts)18.010.010.064.00.0%0.0%100.0%0.0%
6Roma (18-11-9, 63 pts)18.011.09.063.00.0%0.0%100.0%0.0%
7Fiorentina (19-14-5, 62 pts)19.014.05.062.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
8Atalanta (16-11-11, 59 pts)16.011.011.059.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
9Hellas Verona (14-13-11, 53 pts)14.013.011.053.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
10Torino (13-14-11, 50 pts)13.014.011.050.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
11Sassuolo (13-14-11, 50 pts)13.014.011.050.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
12Udinese (11-13-14, 47 pts)11.013.014.047.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
13Bologna (12-16-10, 46 pts)12.016.010.046.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
14Empoli (10-17-11, 41 pts)10.017.011.041.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
15Sampdoria (10-22-6, 36 pts)10.022.06.036.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
16Spezia (10-22-6, 36 pts)10.022.06.036.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
17Salernitana (7-21-10, 31 pts)7.021.010.031.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
18Cagliari (6-20-12, 30 pts)6.020.012.030.00.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%
19Genoa (4-18-16, 28 pts)4.018.016.028.00.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%
20Venezia (6-23-9, 27 pts)6.023.09.027.00.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%

Predictions Methodology

Italy’s Serie A features twenty teams that play a home-and-home series with the other nineteen teams in the league for a total of 38 rounds of football. Currently, the top two teams that finish in the Serie A standings qualify for the Champions League Group Stage. The third place team makes Champions League Qualifying and fourth and fifth place teams earn berths to the Europa League. The teams that place in the bottom three of the table are relegated to Italy’s Serie B.