Italy Serie A Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for May 17, 2021

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
Line		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Bologna
Hellas Verona 		29.6%
45.8%		24.6%
+205
+144
+215
+135
1.06
1.64		2.70
o2¾-119
u3-125
o2½-130
u3-125
Volatility Bet Value Active
Games for May 16, 2021
Games for May 18, 2021

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
Line		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Cagliari
Milan		17.7%
68.9%		13.5%
+875
-300
+800
-325
0
0		-1.30860-1.28126-1.05302
Sassuolo
Parma		47.6%
29.5%		23.0%
-210
+570
-225
+575
3
1		-0.41775-0.40362-0.74337
Sampdoria
Udinese		32.7%
40.0%		27.3%
+200
+140
+185
+140
1
0		-1.13060-1.09539-1.11853
Crotone
Benevento		27.3%
49.2%		23.6%
+664
-235
+625
-260
1
1		-1.20806-1.20262-1.00458
Napoli
Fiorentina		47.0%
28.0%		25.0%
-215
+580
-245
+625
2
0		-0.41033-0.39313-0.75411
Lazio
Roma		35.5%
38.9%		25.6%
+105
+235
+110
+225
0
2		-1.24282-1.22799-0.94382
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks52-1-2 (0.600)0-0.89507 
Sportsbooks52-1-2 (0.600)0-0.87520 
DRatings52-1-2 (0.600)0-0.93472
-0.03965
-0.05952

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 05/12/21
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Inter (27-2-7, 88 pts)27.92.57.691.4100.0%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2Atalanta (22-5-9, 75 pts)23.05.69.578.30.0%96.0%4.0%0.0%
3Milan (23-7-6, 75 pts)23.97.56.678.30.0%90.1%9.9%0.0%
4Napoli (23-9-4, 73 pts)24.09.54.576.50.0%74.5%25.5%0.0%
5Juventus (21-6-9, 72 pts)22.06.59.575.50.0%36.5%63.5%0.0%
6Lazio (21-10-4, 67 pts)22.510.74.872.20.0%2.9%97.1%0.0%
7Roma (17-12-7, 58 pts)17.912.67.561.30.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
8Sassuolo (15-10-11, 56 pts)15.710.811.558.70.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
9Sampdoria (13-16-7, 46 pts)13.816.77.648.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
10Hellas Verona (11-15-10, 43 pts)11.615.910.645.30.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
11Udinese (10-16-10, 40 pts)10.516.910.642.10.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
12Bologna (10-16-10, 40 pts)10.517.010.542.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
13Fiorentina (9-15-12, 39 pts)9.815.712.542.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
14Genoa (9-15-12, 39 pts)9.616.012.541.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
15Cagliari (9-18-9, 36 pts)9.518.99.538.10.0%0.0%0.0%1.0%
16Torino (7-14-14, 35 pts)8.015.214.838.80.0%0.0%0.0%2.6%
17Spezia (8-17-11, 35 pts)8.418.111.536.80.0%0.0%0.0%9.0%
18Benevento (7-19-10, 31 pts)7.819.610.633.90.0%0.0%0.0%87.4%
19Crotone (6-27-3, 21 pts)6.528.03.523.00.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%
20Parma (3-22-11, 20 pts)3.622.911.522.30.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%

Predictions Methodology

Italy’s Serie A features twenty teams that play a home-and-home series with the other nineteen teams in the league for a total of 38 rounds of football. Currently, the top two teams that finish in the Serie A standings qualify for the Champions League Group Stage. The third place team makes Champions League Qualifying and fourth and fifth place teams earn berths to the Europa League. The teams that place in the bottom three of the table are relegated to Italy’s Serie B.