MLB Baseball Predictions

Updated

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Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinBest
ML
Best
Spread
Final
Runs
Sportsbook
Log Loss
DRatings
Log Loss
New York Yankees
Boston Red Sox
54.5%
45.5%
-107
+102
-107
+101
-1½+142
+1½-158
-1½+143
+1½-155
2
3
-0.71498-0.71245-0.78827
Detroit Tigers
Chicago White Sox
36.8%
63.2%
+189
-200
+189
-200
+1½-105
-1½-105
+1½+100
-1½-105
0
2
-0.41806-0.41806-0.45861
Baltimore Orioles
Tampa Bay Rays
42.1%
57.9%
+132
-139
+136
-140
+1½-165
-1½+152
+1½-160
-1½+150
10
3
-0.85411-0.86569-0.86427
Philadelphia Phillies
New York Mets
36.6%
63.4%
+213
-225
+205
-220
+1½-108
-1½-108
+1½+100
-1½-105
2
1
-1.15277-1.13038-1.00408
Cleveland Guardians
Toronto Blue Jays
38.9%
61.1%
+143
-150
+143
-150
+1½-143
-1½+127
+1½-140
-1½+128
8
0
-0.89936-0.89936-0.94397
San Diego Padres
Washington Nationals
65.0%
35.0%
-275
+253
-270
+250
-1½-180
+1½+167
-1½-170
+1½+165
10
5
-0.32664-0.33041-0.43071
Atlanta Braves
Miami Marlins
54.5%
45.5%
-135
+129
-134
+135
-1½+137
+1½-150
-1½+136
+1½-145
4
3
-0.56539-0.55567-0.60743
Chicago Cubs
Cincinnati Reds
48.8%
51.2%
+105
-110
+109
-110
+1½-188
-1½+170
+1½-190
-1½+175
4
2
-0.72940-0.73944-0.71789
Baltimore Orioles
Boston Red Sox
51.8%
48.2%
+112
-118
+110
-112
+1½-168
-1½+155
+1½-170
-1½+160
3
4
-0.62672-0.64257-0.72987
Pittsburgh Pirates
Arizona Diamondbacks
40.9%
59.1%
+151
-160
+151
-158
+1½-133
-1½+120
+1½-130
-1½+125
3
9
-0.49921-0.50112-0.52530
St. Louis Cardinals
Colorado Rockies
52.0%
48.0%
-103
+100
+102
+101
-1½+132
+1½-148
-1½+135
+1½-145
6
8
-0.70051-0.69067-0.73491
Chicago White Sox
Kansas City Royals
57.2%
42.8%
-165
+161
-170
+164
-1½-103
+1½-105
-1½-105
+1½+100
3
5
-0.96511-0.97915-0.84957
Texas Rangers
Houston Astros
33.9%
66.1%
+230
-250
+233
-254
+1½+115
-1½-128
+1½+125
-1½-125
3
7
-0.35364-0.34963-0.41368
Cleveland Guardians
Detroit Tigers
57.7%
42.3%
-142
+132
-142
+135
-1½+112
+1½-128
-1½+110
+1½-125
4
3
-0.55076-0.54535-0.55071
Miami Marlins
Philadelphia Phillies
42.9%
57.1%
+145
-152
+146
-155
+1½-145
-1½+135
+1½-140
-1½+136
3
0
-0.90736-0.91442-0.84581
Minnesota Twins
Los Angeles Dodgers
43.2%
56.8%
+185
-200
+182
-194
+1½-110
-1½-103
+1½+100
-1½+100
5
8
-0.42286-0.43009-0.56609
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0 (0.000)0

Predictions Methodology

Here we use computer estimates from the Inference Index to predict future Major League baseball games. We use previous score and pitcher data to best attempt to estimate the results of each game. The predictions do not account for injuries, or any other factors that may cause the outcome to be swayed in one direction or another. There is a lot of randomness, particularly in baseball, so there will always be some error in the prediction.

Beginning in the 2014 season, we have begun including probable starting pitcher into the calculation. If there is a late change in the starting pitcher for a team and it is not reflected below then the projections will not be an accurate assessment on the game. The current projection system for Major League Baseball games is at Level 3, our highest level of analysis. The Predictor should be used for entertainment purposes only.