MLB Baseball Predictions

Updated

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Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinBest
ML
Best
Spread
Final
Runs
Sportsbook
Log Loss
DRatings
Log Loss
Philadelphia Phillies
Pittsburgh Pirates
55.6%
44.4%
-116
+130
-114
+108
-1½+137
+1½-130
-1½+136
+1½-150
4
2
-0.59310-0.64318-0.58760
St. Louis Cardinals
Washington Nationals
59.4%
40.6%
-158
+170
-154
+146
-1½-103
+1½+100
-1½+102
+1½-110
6
2
-0.47298-0.51309-0.52130
Baltimore Orioles
Cincinnati Reds
50.7%
49.3%
-123
+114
-123
+115
-1½+125
+1½-138
-1½+122
+1½-135
6
2
-0.61367-0.61153-0.67924
New York Mets
Miami Marlins
49.7%
50.3%
-115
+140
-112
+107
-1½+155
+1½-140
-1½+150
+1½-165
6
4
-0.57606-0.64942-0.69884
Chicago Cubs
San Francisco Giants
44.2%
55.8%
+128
-135
+127
-136
+1½-167
-1½+150
+1½-170
-1½+150
2
4
-0.56729-0.56784-0.58386
Texas Rangers
Los Angeles Angels
33.1%
66.9%
+200
-217
+199
-210
+1½-105
-1½-108
+1½+100
-1½+100
2
0
-1.11633-1.10706-1.10603
Los Angeles Dodgers
Colorado Rockies
65.7%
34.3%
-196
+185
-205
+191
-1½-135
+1½+116
-1½-133
+1½+125
13
0
-0.42520-0.41294-0.41963
Seattle Mariners
Houston Astros
43.5%
56.5%
+127
-135
+125
-133
+1½-160
-1½+143
+1½-160
-1½+148
2
4
-0.56920-0.57583-0.57160
Cleveland Guardians
Boston Red Sox
50.3%
49.7%
-115
+124
-124
+123
-1½+140
+1½-148
-1½+130
+1½-145
2
4
-0.78761-0.80401-0.69953
Detroit Tigers
Toronto Blue Jays
35.9%
64.1%
+216
-220
+220
-228
+1½+107
-1½-110
+1½+105
-1½-120
3
5
-0.37864-0.37127-0.44410
Kansas City Royals
New York Yankees
34.3%
65.7%
+211
-220
+213
-226
+1½+112
-1½-115
+1½+115
-1½-116
0
1
-0.38369-0.37902-0.42001
Philadelphia Phillies
Pittsburgh Pirates
62.0%
38.0%
-182
+173
-182
+176
-1½-115
+1½+102
-1½-115
+1½+100
8
7
-0.44953-0.44558-0.47804
Tampa Bay Rays
Baltimore Orioles
51.0%
49.0%
+115
-122
+115
-121
+1½-180
-1½+164
+1½-175
-1½+165
0
3
-0.61323-0.61493-0.71323
Miami Marlins
Cincinnati Reds
46.6%
53.4%
+120
-130
+125
-128
+1½-166
-1½+150
+1½-160
-1½+145
7
6
-0.80802-0.81676-0.76413
New York Yankees
New York Mets
47.8%
52.2%
+172
-180
+166
-175
+1½-134
-1½+120
+1½-135
-1½+122
2
3
-0.45229-0.46421-0.64936
Cleveland Guardians
Boston Red Sox
44.1%
55.9%
+121
-130
+121
-128
+1½-167
-1½+150
+1½-160
-1½+150
7
6
-0.81054-0.80679-0.81960
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0 (0.000)0

Predictions Methodology

Here we use computer estimates from the Inference Index to predict future Major League baseball games. We use previous score and pitcher data to best attempt to estimate the results of each game. The predictions do not account for injuries, or any other factors that may cause the outcome to be swayed in one direction or another. There is a lot of randomness, particularly in baseball, so there will always be some error in the prediction.

Beginning in the 2014 season, we have begun including probable starting pitcher into the calculation. If there is a late change in the starting pitcher for a team and it is not reflected below then the projections will not be an accurate assessment on the game. The current projection system for Major League Baseball games is at Level 3, our highest level of analysis. The Predictor should be used for entertainment purposes only.