MLB Baseball Predictions

Updated

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Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinBest
ML
Best
Spread
Final
Runs
Sportsbook
Log Loss
DRatings
Log Loss
Boston Red Sox
Tampa Bay Rays
36.6%
63.4%
+185
-195
+186
-194
+1½-115
-1½-105
+1½-112
-1½+100
6
3
-1.06441-1.06453-1.00646
Philadelphia Phillies
Miami Marlins
54.8%
45.2%
+165
-170
+159
-163
+1½-147
-1½+130
+1½-145
-1½+140
1
2
-0.46818-0.48315-0.79345
Baltimore Orioles
New York Yankees
37.7%
62.3%
+160
-164
+160
-168
+1½-125
-1½+113
+1½-125
-1½+110
1
3
-0.48078-0.47621-0.47284
Atlanta Braves
Washington Nationals
45.0%
55.0%
+160
-160
+160
-162
+1½-128
-1½+110
+1½-128
-1½+115
8
4
-0.95550-0.95933-0.79775
Cincinnati Reds
St. Louis Cardinals
47.6%
52.4%
+125
-127
+118
-125
+1½-165
-1½+155
+1½-165
-1½+152
1
7
-0.58426-0.60071-0.64649
Seattle Mariners
Arizona Diamondbacks
36.7%
63.3%
+145
-153
+147
-151
+1½-145
-1½+130
+1½-145
-1½+130
7
3
-0.91202-0.91220-1.00223
Los Angeles Angels
Colorado Rockies
46.6%
53.4%
+130
-133
+125
-134
+1½-145
-1½+127
+1½-145
-1½+130
5
2
-0.83938-0.83037-0.76454
Cleveland Guardians
Minnesota Twins
47.0%
53.0%
-106
+100
-105
+100
-1½+150
+1½-165
-1½+152
+1½-165
4
8
-0.70781-0.70542-0.63473
Houston Astros
Los Angeles Dodgers
34.7%
65.3%
+145
-150
+145
-151
+1½-140
-1½+125
+1½-140
-1½+130
7
5
-0.90614-0.90812-1.05760
Oakland Athletics
Texas Rangers
63.5%
36.5%
-215
+205
-210
+192
-1½-120
+1½+104
-1½-115
+1½+105
10
1
-0.38960-0.40426-0.45382
Pittsburgh Pirates
Kansas City Royals
44.7%
55.3%
+105
-109
+105
-112
+1½-180
-1½+167
+1½-175
-1½+170
4
7
-0.65996-0.65345-0.59220
Chicago Cubs
Milwaukee Brewers
48.5%
51.5%
-107
+101
-105
+102
-1½+150
+1½-163
-1½+150
+1½-155
4
2
-0.65506-0.67615-0.72400
Detroit Tigers
Chicago White Sox
40.1%
59.9%
+180
-179
+175
-178
+1½-110
-1½-105
+1½-105
-1½+100
0
14
-0.44282-0.44890-0.51263
Boston Red Sox
Tampa Bay Rays
41.3%
58.7%
+195
-205
+190
-208
+1½-105
-1½-110
+1½-105
-1½-105
4
5
-0.40560-0.40759-0.53309
New York Mets
Toronto Blue Jays
55.0%
45.0%
-161
+155
-161
+155
-1½-113
+1½-105
-1½-109
+1½-105
2
3
-0.94765-0.94765-0.79940
Philadelphia Phillies
Miami Marlins
53.0%
47.0%
-118
+115
-120
+110
-1½+130
+1½-146
-1½+130
+1½-144
12
6
-0.61975-0.62618-0.63544
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0 (0.000)0

Predictions Methodology

Here we use computer estimates from the Inference Index to predict future Major League baseball games. We use previous score and pitcher data to best attempt to estimate the results of each game. The predictions do not account for injuries, or any other factors that may cause the outcome to be swayed in one direction or another. There is a lot of randomness, particularly in baseball, so there will always be some error in the prediction.

Beginning in the 2014 season, we have begun including probable starting pitcher into the calculation. If there is a late change in the starting pitcher for a team and it is not reflected below then the projections will not be an accurate assessment on the game. The current projection system for Major League Baseball games is at Level 3, our highest level of analysis. The Predictor should be used for entertainment purposes only.