Ajax at NEC Nijmegen

Updated

Ajax

83.7%11.0%5.3%
Ajax WinDrawWin
2.95Projected Goals 0.64
1Final Score 0

NEC Nijmegen

Last 5 Games

Ajax
Money Line
W 1-2 vs Sparta Rotterdam-1100
W 3-1 at Groningen-450
W 2-3 vs Feyenoord-210
W 3-2 at Cambuur-750
W 2-3 vs RKC Waalwijk
NEC Nijmegen
Money Line
L 2-0 vs Twente+250
W 2-1 at Cambuur+175
T 0-0 vs Sparta Rotterdam+160
L 3-4 at Groningen+345
L 3-1 vs AZ Alkmaar+520

Money Line Analysis

Implied Margin

Using the best lines from multiple sportsbooks, this would be the % take from the consensus sportsbook if bets were even on each side.

More on Implied Margin
:
5.1%

Implied Margin

Using the best lines from multiple sportsbooks, this would be the % take from the consensus sportsbook if bets were even on each side.

More on Implied Margin
:
4.9%
 Open LineBovadaBetOnline5DimesGTBetsSportsBettingBest Line

No-Vig Odds

Using a market maker sportsbook, this is what the line would be if there was no vigorish (sportsbook fee) in the price.

More on No-Vig Odds
Ajax-435-435-400-474--400-400-317.7
NEC Nijmegen+900+900+950+761-+900+900+976.8
Draw+525+525+550+462-+550+550+582.3
 Open LineSouth PointCircaCaesarsStationsWestgateBest Line

No-Vig Odds

Using a market maker sportsbook, this is what the line would be if there was no vigorish (sportsbook fee) in the price.

More on No-Vig Odds
Ajax-500-----400-400-317.7
NEC Nijmegen+1200----+925+925+976.8
Draw+600----+550+550+582.3

Overall

Bet Value Inactive
Ajax: 10.0%
Bet Value Inactive
NEC Nijmegen: 0.0%

Base Rating

Our analytical projection of the match in relation to the implied probability to win from the sportsbooks.

More on Base Rating

Ajax: 20.0%
NEC Nijmegen: 0.0%

Bet Trends

Doing an analysis on the betting data, we project which team has which team has an edge.

More on Bet Trends

Sharp Line

Our proprietary formula predicting which direction the line will move.

More on Sharp Line

Ajax: 0.0%
NEC Nijmegen: 10.0%

Latest ML

Steam Move

A quick and uniform line move across every sportsbook. Usually caused by an injury or deep-pocketed sharp bettor.

More on Steam Move

Ajax ML moved from -420 to -435
NEC Nijmegen ML moved from +950 to +900

Overall

Bet Value Inactive
Ajax: 0.0%
Bet Value Inactive
NEC Nijmegen: 0.0%

Base Rating

Our analytical projection of the match in relation to the implied probability to win from the sportsbooks.

More on Base Rating

Ajax: 20.0%
NEC Nijmegen: 0.0%

Bet Trends

Doing an analysis on the betting data, we project which team has which team has an edge.

More on Bet Trends

Sharp Line

Our proprietary formula predicting which direction the line will move.

More on Sharp Line

Ajax: 0.0%
NEC Nijmegen: 10.0%

Latest ML

Steam Move

A quick and uniform line move across every sportsbook. Usually caused by an injury or deep-pocketed sharp bettor.

More on Steam Move

Ajax ML moved from -500 to -540
NEC Nijmegen ML moved from +1260 to +925

Over/Under Analysis

Implied Margin

Using the best lines from multiple sportsbooks, this would be the % take from the consensus sportsbook if bets were even on each side.

More on Implied Margin
:
3.3%
 Open LineBovadaBetOnline5DimesGTBetsSportsBettingBest Line

No-Vig Odds

Using a market maker sportsbook, this is what the line would be if there was no vigorish (sportsbook fee) in the price.

More on No-Vig Odds
Overo3½-108o3½-105o3½-110o3½-106-o3½-110o3½-105o3½+100
Underu3½-112u3½-115u3½-110u3½-109-u3½-110u3½-109u3½+100
 Open LineSouth PointCircaCaesarsStationsWestgateBest Line

No-Vig Odds

Using a market maker sportsbook, this is what the line would be if there was no vigorish (sportsbook fee) in the price.

More on No-Vig Odds
Over-----o3½+100
Under-----u3½+100

Overall

Bet Value Inactive
Over: 10.0%
Bet Value Inactive
Under: 0.0%

Base Rating

Our analytical projection of the match in relation to the implied probability to win from the sportsbooks.

More on Base Rating

Over: 10.0%
Under: 0.0%

Bet Trends

Doing an analysis on the betting data, we project which team has which team has an edge.

More on Bet Trends

Sharp Line

Our proprietary formula predicting which direction the line will move.

More on Sharp Line

Over: 0.0%
Under: 0.0%

Latest O/U

Steam Move

A quick and uniform line move across every sportsbook. Usually caused by an injury or deep-pocketed sharp bettor.

More on Steam Move

No Steam Moves On Over
No Steam Moves On Under

Goal Props

Both Teams to Score
Yes44.8%
 
No55.2%

Total Goals

0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Exact Goals Scored - Overall
Exactly 02.76%
Exactly 217.78%
Exactly 419.10%
Exactly 68.21%
Exactly 81.89%
Exactly 100.27%
 
Exactly 19.91%
Exactly 321.28%
Exactly 513.72%
Exactly 74.21%
Exactly 90.75%
Exact Goals Scored - Ajax
Exactly 05.23%
Exactly 115.44%
Exactly 222.77%
Exactly 322.39%
Exactly 416.52%
Exactly 59.75%
Exactly 64.79%
Exactly 72.02%
Exactly 80.74%
Exactly 90.24%
Exact Goals Scored - NEC Nijmegen
Exactly 052.73%
Exactly 133.75%
Exactly 210.80%
Exactly 32.30%
Exactly 40.37%
Exact Goals Scored - First Half
Exactly 018.97%
Exactly 226.21%
Exactly 46.04%
Exactly 60.56%
 
Exactly 131.53%
Exactly 314.52%
Exactly 52.01%
Exactly 70.13%
Exact Goals Scored - First Half - Ajax
Exactly 025.51%
Exactly 134.85%
Exactly 223.80%
Exactly 310.84%
Exactly 43.70%
Exactly 51.01%
Exactly 60.23%
Exact Goals Scored - First Half - NEC Nijmegen
Exactly 074.35%
Exactly 122.03%
Exactly 23.27%
Exactly 30.32%

Alternate Props

Spread

Ajax
Wins by 2+ goals64.94%
Wins by 3+ goals43.35%
Wins by 4+ goals24.80%
Wins by 5+ goals12.23%
NEC Nijmegen
Wins by 2+ goals1.20%
Wins by 3+ goals0.20%

Exact Winning Margin

Ajax
NEC Nijmegen
5
4
3
2
1
D
1
2
3
Ajax
Wins by 1 goal18.66%
Wins by 2 goals21.59%
Wins by 3 goals18.55%
Wins by 4 goals12.56%
Wins by 5 goals6.99%
NEC Nijmegen
Wins by 1 goal4.04%
Wins by 2 goals1.00%
Wins by 3 goals0.18%

Total Goals Over/Under

OverUnder
0.597.24%2.76%
1.587.33%12.67%
2.569.55%30.45%
3.548.27%51.73%
4.529.17%70.83%
5.515.45%84.55%
6.57.25%92.75%
7.53.04%96.96%
8.51.15%98.85%

Total Goals Ajax Over/Under

OverUnder
0.594.77%5.23%
1.579.33%20.67%
2.556.55%43.45%
3.534.16%65.84%
4.517.64%82.36%
5.57.90%92.10%
6.53.11%96.89%
7.51.09%98.91%

Total Goals NEC Nijmegen Over/Under

OverUnder
0.547.27%52.73%
1.513.53%86.47%
2.52.73%97.27%

Total Goals - First Half Over/Under

OverUnder
0.581.03%18.97%
1.549.49%50.51%
2.523.29%76.71%
3.58.76%91.24%
4.52.73%97.27%

Score Props

Correct Score

Ajax
NEC Nijmegen
Score0123
0
2.76%
1.77%
0.57%
0.12%
1
8.14%
5.21%
1.67%
0.36%
2
12.01%
7.69%
2.46%
0.52%
3
11.81%
7.56%
2.42%
0.52%
4
8.71%
5.57%
1.78%
0.38%
5
5.14%
3.29%
1.05%
0.22%
Ajax
1-08.14%
2-012.01%
2-17.69%
3-011.81%
3-17.56%
3-22.42%
4-08.71%
4-15.57%
4-21.78%
4-30.38%
5-05.14%
5-13.29%
5-21.05%
5-30.22%
Draw
0-02.76%
1-15.21%
2-22.46%
3-30.52%
NEC Nijmegen
0-11.77%
0-20.57%
1-21.67%
0-30.12%
1-30.36%
2-30.52%

Correct Score - First Half

Ajax
NEC Nijmegen
Score0123
0
18.97%
5.62%
0.83%
0.08%
1
25.91%
7.68%
1.14%
0.11%
2
17.70%
5.24%
0.78%
0.08%
3
8.06%
2.39%
0.35%
0.03%
4
2.75%
0.82%
0.12%
0.01%
5
0.75%
0.22%
0.03%
0.00%
6
0.17%
0.05%
0.01%
0.00%
Ajax
1-025.91%
2-017.70%
2-15.24%
3-08.06%
3-12.39%
3-20.35%
4-02.75%
4-10.82%
4-20.12%
5-00.75%
5-10.22%
6-00.17%
Draw
0-018.97%
1-17.68%
2-20.78%
NEC Nijmegen
0-15.62%
0-20.83%
1-21.14%
1-30.11%