Excelsior at Ajax

Updated

Excelsior

9.6%15.8%74.6%
WinDrawAjax Win
0.76Projected Goals 2.46
2Final Score 1

Ajax

Last 5 Games

Excelsior
Money Line
L 2-1 vs Heracles Almelo
T 2-2 at Telstar
L 0-2 at Go Ahead Eagles
W 0-1 vs Fortuna Sittard
L 1-2 at Heerenveen
Ajax
Money Line
L 1-2 at Utrecht
T 1-1 vs Heerenveen
W 3-2 at Twente
L 2-0 vs AZ Alkmaar
T 3-3 at Sparta Rotterdam

Money Line Analysis

Implied Margin

Using the best lines from multiple sportsbooks, this would be the % take from the consensus sportsbook if bets were even on each side.

More on Implied Margin
:5.9%
 Open LineHeritageBovadaBetOnlineYouWagerSportsBettingBest Line

No-Vig Odds

Using a market maker sportsbook, this is what the line would be if there was no vigorish (sportsbook fee) in the price.

More on No-Vig Odds
Excelsior+650-+725+660+620+660+725+720.2
Ajax-310--335-345-333-345-333-255.0
Draw+460-+475+480+470+480+480+526.0
 Open LineSouth PointCircaWynnStationsWestgateBest Line

No-Vig Odds

Using a market maker sportsbook, this is what the line would be if there was no vigorish (sportsbook fee) in the price.

More on No-Vig Odds
Excelsior-----+720.2
Ajax------255.0
Draw-----+526.0

Overall

Bet Value Inactive
Excelsior: 0.0%
Bet Value Inactive
Ajax: 10.0%

Base Rating

Our analytical projection of the match in relation to the implied probability to win from the sportsbooks.

More on Base Rating

Excelsior: 0.0%
Ajax: 20.0%

Bet Trends

Doing an analysis on the betting data, we project which team has which team has an edge.

More on Bet Trends

Excelsior: 0.0%

Sharp Line

Our proprietary formula predicting which direction the line will move.

More on Sharp Line

Excelsior: 10.0%
Ajax: 0.0%

Latest ML

Steam Move

A quick and uniform line move across every sportsbook. Usually caused by an injury or deep-pocketed sharp bettor.

More on Steam Move

Excelsior ML moved from +630 to +620
Ajax ML moved from -333 to -345

Over/Under Analysis

Implied Margin

Using the best lines from multiple sportsbooks, this would be the % take from the consensus sportsbook if bets were even on each side.

More on Implied Margin
:1.6%
 Open LineHeritageBovadaBetOnlineYouWagerSportsBettingBest Line

No-Vig Odds

Using a market maker sportsbook, this is what the line would be if there was no vigorish (sportsbook fee) in the price.

More on No-Vig Odds
Overo3½+102-o3½-118o3½-113o3½-126o3½-113o3½-113o3½-103
Underu3½-122-u3½-102u3½-107u3½+106u3½-107u3½+106u3½+103
 Open LineSouth PointCircaWynnStationsWestgateBest Line

No-Vig Odds

Using a market maker sportsbook, this is what the line would be if there was no vigorish (sportsbook fee) in the price.

More on No-Vig Odds
Over-----o3½-103
Under-----u3½+103

Overall

Bet Value Inactive
Over: 0.0%
Bet Value Inactive
Under: 10.0%

Base Rating

Our analytical projection of the match in relation to the implied probability to win from the sportsbooks.

More on Base Rating

Over: 0.0%
Under: 10.0%

Bet Trends

Doing an analysis on the betting data, we project which team has which team has an edge.

More on Bet Trends

Over: 10.0%

Sharp Line

Our proprietary formula predicting which direction the line will move.

More on Sharp Line

Over: 0.0%
Under: 10.0%

Latest O/U

Steam Move

A quick and uniform line move across every sportsbook. Usually caused by an injury or deep-pocketed sharp bettor.

More on Steam Move

The Over moved from o3¼-115 to o3½-107
No Steam Moves On Under

Goal Props

Both Teams to Score
Yes48.7%
 
No51.3%

Total Goals

0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Exact Goals Scored - Overall
Exactly 04.00%
Exactly 220.72%
Exactly 417.89%
Exactly 66.18%
Exactly 81.14%
Exactly 100.13%
 
Exactly 112.87%
Exactly 322.23%
Exactly 511.52%
Exactly 72.84%
Exactly 90.41%
Exact Goals Scored - Excelsior
Exactly 046.71%
Exactly 135.56%
Exactly 213.53%
Exactly 33.43%
Exactly 40.65%
Exact Goals Scored - Ajax
Exactly 08.56%
Exactly 121.04%
Exactly 225.86%
Exactly 321.19%
Exactly 413.02%
Exactly 56.40%
Exactly 62.62%
Exactly 70.92%
Exactly 80.28%
Exact Goals Scored - First Half
Exactly 022.53%
Exactly 225.02%
Exactly 44.63%
Exactly 60.34%
 
Exactly 133.57%
Exactly 312.43%
Exactly 51.38%
Exact Goals Scored - First Half - Excelsior
Exactly 070.30%
Exactly 124.78%
Exactly 24.37%
Exactly 30.51%
Exact Goals Scored - First Half - Ajax
Exactly 032.04%
Exactly 136.47%
Exactly 220.75%
Exactly 37.87%
Exactly 42.24%
Exactly 50.51%

Alternate Props

Spread

Excelsior
Wins by 2+ goals2.54%
Wins by 3+ goals0.49%
Ajax
Wins by 2+ goals52.16%
Wins by 3+ goals30.55%
Wins by 4+ goals15.06%
Wins by 5+ goals6.31%
Wins by 6+ goals2.25%
Wins by 7+ goals0.66%
Wins by 8+ goals0.13%

Exact Winning Margin

Excelsior
Ajax
3
2
1
D
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Excelsior
Wins by 1 goal6.92%
Wins by 2 goals2.05%
Wins by 3 goals0.43%
Ajax
Wins by 1 goal22.38%
Wins by 2 goals21.61%
Wins by 3 goals15.49%
Wins by 4 goals8.75%
Wins by 5 goals4.06%
Wins by 6 goals1.59%
Wins by 7 goals0.53%
Wins by 8 goals0.13%

Total Goals Over/Under

OverUnder
0.596.00%4.00%
1.583.13%16.87%
2.562.41%37.59%
3.540.18%59.82%
4.522.28%77.72%
5.510.76%89.24%
6.54.58%95.42%
7.51.74%98.26%

Total Goals Excelsior Over/Under

OverUnder
0.553.29%46.71%
1.517.73%82.27%
2.54.20%95.80%

Total Goals Ajax Over/Under

OverUnder
0.591.44%8.56%
1.570.40%29.60%
2.544.54%55.46%
3.523.35%76.65%
4.510.33%89.67%
5.53.93%96.07%
6.51.31%98.69%

Total Goals - First Half Over/Under

OverUnder
0.577.47%22.53%
1.543.90%56.10%
2.518.88%81.12%
3.56.45%93.55%
4.51.81%98.19%

Score Props

Correct Score

Excelsior
Ajax
Score012345
0
4.00%
9.83%
12.08%
9.90%
6.08%
2.99%
1
3.04%
7.48%
9.19%
7.53%
4.63%
2.28%
2
1.16%
2.85%
3.50%
2.87%
1.76%
0.87%
3
0.29%
0.72%
0.89%
0.73%
0.45%
0.22%
Excelsior
1-03.04%
2-01.16%
2-12.85%
3-00.29%
3-10.72%
3-20.89%
Draw
0-04.00%
1-17.48%
2-23.50%
3-30.73%
Ajax
0-19.83%
0-212.08%
1-29.19%
0-39.90%
1-37.53%
2-32.87%
0-46.08%
1-44.63%
2-41.76%
3-40.45%
0-52.99%
1-52.28%
2-50.87%
3-50.22%

Correct Score - First Half

Excelsior
Ajax
Score012345
0
22.53%
25.64%
14.59%
5.53%
1.57%
0.36%
1
7.94%
9.04%
5.14%
1.95%
0.55%
0.13%
2
1.40%
1.59%
0.91%
0.34%
0.10%
0.02%
3
0.16%
0.19%
0.11%
0.04%
0.01%
0.00%
Excelsior
1-07.94%
2-01.40%
2-11.59%
3-00.16%
3-10.19%
3-20.11%
Draw
0-022.53%
1-19.04%
2-20.91%
Ajax
0-125.64%
0-214.59%
1-25.14%
0-35.53%
1-31.95%
2-30.34%
0-41.57%
1-40.55%
0-50.36%
1-50.13%
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