Portugal Primeira Liga Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for March 6, 2026

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

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More Details
Arouca
Famalicao 		19.3%
57.7%		23.0%
+355
-125
+350
-125
0.94
1.80		2.74
o2½-105
u2½-114

Games for Mar 5, 2026
Games for Mar 7, 2026

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Tondela
Rio Ave		31.3%
39.5%		29.2%
+184
+162
+185
+150
0
3		-0.99155-0.96451-0.92821
Famalicao
Arouca		34.9%
35.8%		29.3%
-105
+317
-115
+320
1
1		-1.29598-1.33044-1.22915
Santa Clara
Vitoria		21.8%
52.6%		25.5%
+166
+208
+165
+210
1
2		-1.16376-1.18097-0.64177
Alverca
AVS		28.2%
43.7%		28.0%
+132
+236
+150
+200
3
1		-0.88003-0.96582-1.26471
Estrela
Gil Vicente FC		19.3%
56.2%		24.6%
+430
-135
+525
-165
0
2		-0.60596-0.52192-0.57677
Estoril
Casa Pia AC		35.3%
34.5%		30.1%
+173
+180
+170
+180
2
2		-1.20932-1.18026-1.19995
Porto
Arouca		67.7%
12.3%		20.0%
-400
+1100
-400
+1000
4
0		-0.26126-0.27403-0.39081
Rio Ave
Famalicao		15.5%
62.7%		21.8%
+396
-142
+375
-140
0
0		-1.42014-1.41001-1.52473
Nacional
Braga		9.7%
74.2%		16.1%
+705
-228
+730
-250
1
0		-2.11993-2.16491-2.33707
Vitoria
Alverca		48.9%
24.5%		26.5%
+199
+177
+160
+190
0
2		-1.04401-1.11541-1.40470
Sporting CP
Estoril		67.4%
12.6%		19.9%
-392
+1023
-425
+975
1
0		-0.26633-0.26075-0.39380
AVS
Estrela		25.1%
47.9%		26.9%
+247
+126
+265
+120
0
3		-0.85762-0.83829-0.73555
Casa Pia AC
Moreirense		20.1%
55.1%		24.8%
+280
+114
+270
+115
1
2		-0.80006-0.81697-0.59624
Tondela
Santa Clara		19.2%
57.0%		23.7%
+438
-122
+470
-145
2
1		-1.71180-1.79210-1.64771
Gil Vicente FC
Benfica		4.6%
84.6%		10.8%
+950
-318
+1025
-345
1
2		-0.31281-0.30271-0.16763
Rio Ave
Benfica		3.3%
87.8%		8.9%
+1706
-648
+2500
-1000
1
1		-2.20437-2.32616-2.41654
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Predictions Methodology

The Portuguese Liga (Primeira Liga) consists of 18 teams. As with many other European leagues, teams progress throughout the season using the process of promotion and relegation, with the two lowest teams relegated to Segunda Liga, and the two highest teams moving up to join the Primeira Liga. The league became official in 1938, after four years as an experimental league, and has since improved its reputation within the UEFA (Union of European Football Associations).