Portugal Primeira Liga Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for December 20, 2025

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Rio Ave
Gil Vicente FC 		17.1%
58.7%		24.2%
+340
-133
+400
-135
0.76
1.66		2.42
o2¼-114
u2¼-106

Moreirense
Estrela 		31.2%
39.8%		29.0%
+195
+148
+210
+140
1.02
1.18		2.20
o2¼-115
u2¼-103

Games for Dec 19, 2025
Games for Dec 21, 2025

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Tondela
Famalicao		28.5%
46.2%		25.3%
+385
-128
+375
-125
2
2		-1.33344-1.30328-1.37279
Vitoria
Nacional		50.2%
24.7%		25.1%
+109
+274
+110
+270
0
1		-1.36422-1.35662-1.39756
Santa Clara
Benfica		17.5%
66.9%		15.7%
+875
-294
+950
-320
1
2		-0.32548-0.32021-0.40266
Gil Vicente FC
Belenenses		33.4%
34.4%		32.2%
+178
+188
+190
+180
1
2		-1.09201-1.07537-1.06575
Sporting CP
Braga		35.2%
37.5%		27.3%
+165
+170
+165
+175
1
0		-1.01891-1.02210-1.04279
Pacos
Rio Ave		35.2%
34.4%		30.5%
+247
+129
+250
+125
1
1		-1.19326-1.19392-1.18794
Maritimo
Boavista		33.8%
35.0%		31.2%
+269
+126
+250
+120
1
0		-1.32844-1.29960-1.08412
Vitoria
Porto		18.6%
64.7%		16.7%
+791
-278
+750
-280
0
1		-0.34827-0.35472-0.43530
Benfica
Portimonense		68.3%
16.3%		15.4%
-219
+620
-220
+620
5
1		-0.41803-0.42454-0.38182
Famalicao
Gil Vicente FC		36.2%
35.4%		28.4%
+174
+166
+175
+170
3
0		-1.06854-1.06178-1.01719
Belenenses
Sporting CP		13.9%
71.5%		14.6%
+810
-238
+775
-250
2
2		-1.52381-1.55362-1.92573
Boavista
Braga		15.9%
70.5%		13.6%
+575
-215
+600
-215
1
2		-0.42622-0.42846-0.34977
Rio Ave
Maritimo		36.4%
32.6%		31.0%
+177
+171
+180
+165
0
1		-1.04333-1.02521-1.12043
Moreirense
Santa Clara		34.0%
35.6%		30.4%
+385
-127
+400
-130
0
0		-1.31733-1.30247-1.19106
SC Farense
Pacos		23.3%
54.5%		22.2%
+185
+165
+190
+150
2
0		-1.08818-1.10712-1.45504
Porto
Nacional		75.7%
12.4%		11.9%
-474
+1276
-475
+1200
1
0		-0.24107-0.24095-0.27891
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks10-1-0 (0.000)0-1.61415 
Sportsbooks10-1-0 (0.000)0-1.71741 
DRatings10-1-0 (0.000)0-1.32961
0.28454
0.38780

Predictions Methodology

The Portuguese Liga (Primeira Liga) consists of 18 teams. As with many other European leagues, teams progress throughout the season using the process of promotion and relegation, with the two lowest teams relegated to Segunda Liga, and the two highest teams moving up to join the Primeira Liga. The league became official in 1938, after four years as an experimental league, and has since improved its reputation within the UEFA (Union of European Football Associations).