Portugal Primeira Liga Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for December 20, 2025

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Rio Ave
Gil Vicente FC 		17.1%
58.7%		24.2%
+345
-133
+400
-135
0.76
1.66		2.42
o2¼-107
u2¼-113

Moreirense
Estrela 		31.2%
39.8%		29.0%
+180
+167
+195
+155
1.02
1.18		2.20
o2¼-105
u2¼-109

Games for Dec 19, 2025
Games for Dec 21, 2025

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Tondela
Santa Clara		27.7%
44.2%		28.1%
+418
-120
+400
-120
1
1		-1.25372-1.24126-1.26904
Nacional
Gil Vicente FC		30.0%
40.3%		29.7%
+280
+107
+310
+100
0
2		-0.78373-0.74345-0.90949
Braga
Famalicao		59.6%
22.7%		17.7%
-179
+534
-190
+530
2
2		-1.97350-3.23704-1.73115
Pacos
Porto		16.0%
69.7%		14.3%
+915
-263
+750
-260
0
2		-0.34699-0.37459-0.36080
Gil Vicente FC
Vitoria		22.9%
54.4%		22.7%
+310
-101
+325
-105
4
2		-1.00299-0.67013-1.47395
Rio Ave
Moreirense		33.2%
36.3%		30.5%
+144
+224
+135
+220
1
1		-1.78492-4.64391-1.18682
Sporting CP
Tondela		66.9%
16.8%		16.3%
-270
+801
-275
+825
1
0		-0.17504-0.16598-0.40178
Boavista
Benfica		15.1%
71.3%		13.6%
+900
-335
+975
-375
0
2		-0.30005-0.28438-0.33871
Portimonense
Santa Clara		26.6%
45.6%		27.8%
+230
+152
+220
+150
0
2		-0.96459-0.96648-0.78564
Maritimo
Nacional		35.2%
33.3%		31.5%
+166
+197
+160
+200
2
1		-0.78667-0.80437-1.04529
Vitoria
Braga		25.6%
52.4%		22.1%
+450
-160
+475
-175
0
3		-0.25886-0.24160-0.64672
Benfica
Belenenses		65.0%
17.5%		17.5%
-270
+850
-260
+800
3
0		-0.21417-0.18291-0.43066
SC Farense
Rio Ave		25.2%
49.5%		25.3%
+329
-106
+330
-105
0
2		-0.37363-0.37434-0.70293
Moreirense
Maritimo		35.5%
33.9%		30.7%
+220
+142
+210
+140
2
0		-0.95376-0.94693-1.03600
Famalicao
Boavista		37.1%
34.5%		28.4%
+227
+144
+235
+135
0
3		-0.55743-0.53150-1.06534
Porto
Gil Vicente FC		73.3%
13.9%		12.8%
-263
+750
-245
+750
2
0		-0.20737-0.19473-0.31020
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks10-1-0 (0.000)0-1.61415 
Sportsbooks10-1-0 (0.000)0-1.71741 
DRatings10-1-0 (0.000)0-1.32961
0.28454
0.38780

Predictions Methodology

The Portuguese Liga (Primeira Liga) consists of 18 teams. As with many other European leagues, teams progress throughout the season using the process of promotion and relegation, with the two lowest teams relegated to Segunda Liga, and the two highest teams moving up to join the Primeira Liga. The league became official in 1938, after four years as an experimental league, and has since improved its reputation within the UEFA (Union of European Football Associations).