Spain La Liga Predictions

Updated

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Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Osasuna
Atletico Madrid		9.6%
72.7%		17.6%
+1100
-315
+1000
-345
0
1		-0.30457-0.30143-0.31847
Getafe
Las Palmas		29.1%
40.8%		30.0%
+260
+150
+250
+150
2
1		-1.31524-1.28873-1.23347
Valencia
Sevilla		29.2%
43.0%		27.8%
+302
+113
+290
+115
1
1		-1.21497-1.20748-1.28017
Leganes
Espanyol		21.6%
52.4%		26.0%
+335
+115
+315
+110
1
1		-1.12655-1.14788-1.34600
Betis
Valladolid		38.2%
33.9%		27.9%
-128
+420
-130
+400
0
1		-1.67595-1.65156-1.08252
Girona
Alaves		26.5%
45.8%		27.6%
+147
+225
+140
+230
1
0		-0.93379-0.91687-1.32806
Celta Vigo
Rayo Vallecano		33.3%
38.4%		28.3%
+170
+190
+177
+175
1
2		-1.09201-1.05774-0.95732
Real Madrid
Valencia		61.2%
17.1%		21.8%
-233
+700
-230
+700
2
1		-0.38151-0.38274-0.49184
Rayo Vallecano
Betis		22.6%
52.9%		24.5%
+450
-140
+405
-135
1
1		-1.37263-1.35019-1.40658
Espanyol
Las Palmas		23.5%
50.4%		26.0%
+292
+110
+300
+110
0
1		-0.77130-0.76634-0.68419
Villarreal
Leganes		47.5%
25.8%		26.7%
-109
+325
-110
+335
5
2		-0.68500-0.68528-0.74431
Sevilla
Real Madrid		6.2%
80.8%		13.0%
+1075
-382
+1000
-400
2
4		-0.26216-0.26580-0.21333
Alaves
Valencia		24.1%
49.4%		26.5%
+302
+115
+312
+115
2
2		-1.18922-1.13897-1.32840
Atletico Madrid
Barcelona		21.4%
54.0%		24.5%
+264
+103
+270
-110
2
1		-1.31867-1.36074-1.54052
Athletic Club
Osasuna		39.1%
31.6%		29.3%
+105
+357
+105
+315
2
1		-0.73489-0.75828-0.94015
Real Sociedad
Celta Vigo		28.4%
44.3%		27.3%
+197
+185
+187
+190
0
2		-1.06802-1.08043-0.81475
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks21-1-0 (0.500)0-0.80990 
Sportsbooks21-1-0 (0.500)0-0.79508 
DRatings21-1-0 (0.500)0-0.77597
0.03393
0.01911

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 12/23/24
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Atletico Madrid (12-1-5, 41 pts)22.45.510.077.324.9%98.9%1.1%0.0%
2Real Madrid (12-2-4, 40 pts)24.15.58.380.859.9%100.0%0.0%0.0%
3Barcelona (12-5-2, 38 pts)22.68.96.574.314.2%98.5%1.5%0.0%
4Athletic Club (10-3-6, 36 pts)18.48.411.366.40.9%79.1%17.9%0.0%
5Villarreal (8-4-6, 30 pts)15.211.011.857.40.1%9.5%46.3%0.0%
6Mallorca (9-7-3, 30 pts)15.014.58.553.50.0%2.6%22.1%0.2%
7Real Sociedad (7-7-4, 25 pts)14.613.69.853.60.0%4.9%29.4%0.1%
8Girona (7-7-4, 25 pts)13.914.39.851.60.0%1.9%19.5%1.1%
9Betis (6-5-7, 25 pts)12.912.612.651.20.0%0.9%15.6%0.8%
10Osasuna (6-5-7, 25 pts)12.612.712.650.60.0%1.5%12.5%1.4%
11Celta Vigo (7-8-3, 24 pts)14.414.98.751.80.0%1.2%19.7%0.6%
12Rayo Vallecano (5-6-7, 22 pts)11.214.112.746.20.0%0.2%3.9%5.7%
13Las Palmas (6-8-4, 22 pts)11.716.89.544.50.0%0.1%2.6%12.0%
14Sevilla (6-8-4, 22 pts)12.815.69.548.00.0%0.5%6.0%3.8%
15Leganes (4-8-6, 18 pts)8.818.011.137.60.0%0.0%0.1%52.3%
16Alaves (4-9-5, 17 pts)10.716.610.742.80.0%0.0%0.7%17.6%
17Getafe (3-8-7, 16 pts)9.416.212.440.70.0%0.2%0.2%27.2%
18Espanyol (4-11-3, 15 pts)9.520.28.336.70.0%0.0%0.1%60.8%
19Valencia (2-9-6, 12 pts)9.316.811.939.90.0%0.0%0.8%34.0%
20Valladolid (3-12-3, 12 pts)8.321.48.333.20.0%0.0%0.0%82.4%

Predictions Methodology

Spain's La Liga is arguably the world's strongest soccer league. Twenty teams play 38 games in the league. The top four teams make Champions League. Teams that finish 5th through 7th make the Europa League. The teams that finish at the bottom of the table are relegated to La Liga 2.