Spain La Liga Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for April 22, 2024

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Mallorca
Sevilla 		14.9%
62.7%		22.4%
+371
+100
+385
-105
0.74
1.81		2.55
o2-104
u2-110
o2+100
u2-120
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Games for Apr 26, 2024

Games In Progress

TimeTeamsOrig.
Win %		Orig.
Draw %		Closing
ML		Orig. Total
Goals		Closing
O/U		PeriodCurrent
Score
Las Palmas
Celta Vigo 		19.4%
56.6%		24.0%
+460
-147
+460
-135
2.57
o2½-108
u2½-103
o2½+105
u2½-110
2nd H
79:00		1
4

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Granada
Athletic Club		11.6%
69.5%		18.9%
+1015
-338
+1050
-360
1
1		-1.79824-1.81327-1.66701
Valencia
Osasuna		31.5%
40.2%		28.2%
+247
+144
+245
+140
1
0		-1.26972-1.27744-1.15410
Almeria
Real Sociedad		11.1%
70.9%		18.0%
+1140
-317
+1129
-350
2
2		-1.74200-1.74491-1.71663
Villarreal
Athletic Club		17.2%
60.6%		22.2%
+455
-156
+438
-135
1
1		-1.48939-1.42441-1.50602
Alaves
Granada		23.8%
49.8%		26.3%
+199
+205
+190
+200
0
2		-1.09991-1.10464-0.69647
Sevilla
Las Palmas		38.0%
32.2%		29.8%
+162
+195
+160
+189
2
0		-0.98216-0.99774-0.96856
Barcelona
Cadiz		71.5%
10.4%		18.1%
+107
+290
+110
+310
1
0		-0.74697-0.75184-0.33550
Real Madrid
Mallorca		75.5%
8.4%		16.0%
-122
+410
-125
+390
1
0		-0.61954-0.62085-0.28077
Getafe
Rayo Vallecano		29.1%
41.4%		29.5%
+274
+140
+273
+130
0
0		-1.14892-1.14097-1.22187
Girona
Atletico Madrid		9.6%
72.7%		17.7%
+309
-110
+290
+100
1
3		-0.67105-0.70917-0.31887
Celta Vigo
Betis		21.0%
55.4%		23.5%
+345
-106
+300
-105
1
2		-0.67984-0.70824-0.58989
Valencia
Granada		34.5%
37.3%		28.2%
+150
+225
+145
+215
1
0		-0.94112-0.94415-1.06328
Atletico Madrid
Villarreal		47.5%
26.2%		26.3%
+115
+255
+120
+210
2
1		-0.78239-0.83829-0.74535
Athletic Club
Real Madrid		10.4%
71.7%		17.9%
+499
-169
+475
-165
0
2		-0.48959-0.50785-0.33314
Real Sociedad
Alaves		45.4%
26.7%		28.0%
+122
+305
+120
+290
1
0		-0.82244-0.83718-0.79045
Betis
Girona		32.2%
40.1%		27.7%
+395
-136
+380
-135
2
3		-0.57313-0.58066-0.91502
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks10-0-1 (0.500)0-1.79824 
Sportsbooks10-0-1 (0.500)0-1.81327 
DRatings10-0-1 (0.500)0-1.66701
0.13123
0.14626

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 04/15/24
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Real Madrid (24-1-6, 78 pts)28.22.27.592.297.8%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2Barcelona (21-3-7, 70 pts)24.94.58.783.22.2%99.9%0.1%0.0%
3Girona (20-6-5, 65 pts)22.48.76.974.20.0%86.9%13.1%0.0%
4Atletico Madrid (19-8-4, 61 pts)22.89.55.774.00.0%86.3%13.7%0.0%
5Athletic Club (16-6-9, 57 pts)19.37.810.968.80.0%26.9%73.0%0.0%
6Real Sociedad (13-7-11, 50 pts)15.49.613.059.20.0%0.0%68.4%0.0%
7Valencia (13-10-8, 47 pts)15.312.610.056.00.0%0.0%20.6%0.0%
8Betis (11-8-12, 45 pts)13.610.414.054.70.0%0.0%10.7%0.0%
9Villarreal (10-12-9, 39 pts)12.714.410.949.00.0%0.0%0.2%0.0%
10Getafe (9-10-12, 39 pts)11.412.813.948.00.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%
11Osasuna (11-14-6, 39 pts)13.316.78.047.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
12Las Palmas (10-14-7, 37 pts)12.316.79.145.90.0%0.0%0.1%0.1%
13Sevilla (8-13-10, 34 pts)10.515.512.043.40.0%0.0%0.0%0.3%
14Alaves (8-15-8, 32 pts)9.818.39.939.20.0%0.0%0.0%3.8%
15Mallorca (6-12-13, 31 pts)8.114.915.039.40.0%0.0%0.0%3.7%
16Rayo Vallecano (6-12-13, 31 pts)7.915.215.038.60.0%0.0%0.0%5.1%
17Celta Vigo (6-15-10, 28 pts)8.217.812.036.70.0%0.0%0.0%11.7%
18Cadiz (4-14-13, 25 pts)5.817.215.032.40.0%0.0%0.0%75.7%
19Granada (3-20-8, 17 pts)5.123.09.925.20.0%0.0%0.0%99.6%
20Almeria (1-19-11, 14 pts)2.922.113.021.70.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%

Predictions Methodology

Spain's La Liga is arguably the world's strongest soccer league. Twenty teams play 38 games in the league. The top four teams make Champions League. Teams that finish 5th through 7th make the Europa League. The teams that finish at the bottom of the table are relegated to La Liga 2.