Spain La Liga Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for April 26, 2024

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Real Madrid
Real Sociedad 		55.0%
20.7%		24.3%
+210
+157
+200
+160
1.67
0.92		2.59
o2¼-102
u2¼-110
o2½+125
u2½-130
Games for Apr 25, 2024
Games for Apr 27, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Betis
Rayo Vallecano		37.8%
34.0%		28.2%
+212
+160
+210
+159
0
2		-0.98182-0.98755-1.07784
Almeria
Las Palmas		24.7%
48.8%		26.5%
+370
-129
+375
-125
1
0		-1.57330-1.58036-1.40023
Valencia
Villarreal		25.8%
49.2%		25.1%
+244
+124
+235
+121
0
1		-0.83556-0.83711-0.70978
Celta Vigo
Sevilla		21.8%
53.0%		25.2%
+310
-102
+318
-110
2
1		-1.43729-1.47408-1.52289
Alaves
Athletic Club		10.6%
70.3%		19.1%
+590
-164
+570
-175
0
2		-0.50296-0.49635-0.35193
Girona
Getafe		27.0%
44.2%		28.8%
+114
+276
+115
+265
0
1		-1.34320-1.32742-0.81647
Real Madrid
Osasuna		69.8%
11.6%		18.6%
-198
+635
-190
+560
4
2		-0.42653-0.45136-0.35926
Granada
Mallorca		30.2%
41.4%		28.4%
+422
-116
+420
-120
0
1		-0.64331-0.63752-0.88213
Cadiz
Real Sociedad		9.6%
72.6%		17.8%
+900
-224
+850
-230
0
2		-0.39273-0.40330-0.32067
Sevilla
Almeria		40.4%
31.2%		28.3%
+120
+252
+125
+245
2
2		-1.26227-1.25180-1.26171
Villarreal
Betis		24.9%
50.6%		24.5%
+256
+116
+260
+113
3
2		-1.28377-1.30567-1.38934
Celta Vigo
Real Madrid		5.3%
83.1%		11.6%
+875
-299
+850
-307
0
4		-0.30695-0.32251-0.18535
Athletic Club
Las Palmas		50.1%
23.1%		26.9%
-115
+400
+100
+370
2
0		-0.63830-0.69409-0.69209
Rayo Vallecano
Alaves		27.3%
44.6%		28.1%
+315
+114
+315
+118
0
1		-0.79118-0.80133-0.80674
Osasuna
Girona		24.5%
49.2%		26.4%
+550
-187
+500
-185
0
2		-0.45092-0.46944-0.71017
Real Sociedad
Granada		43.3%
29.2%		27.5%
-110
+372
-115
+379
3
2		-0.67598-0.66701-0.83681
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 04/22/24
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Real Madrid (25-1-6, 81 pts)28.91.97.294.099.9%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2Barcelona (21-4-7, 70 pts)24.45.18.481.70.1%100.0%0.0%0.0%
3Girona (21-6-5, 68 pts)23.18.36.675.90.0%97.9%2.1%0.0%
4Atletico Madrid (19-9-4, 61 pts)22.110.35.671.90.0%78.1%21.9%0.0%
5Athletic Club (16-6-10, 58 pts)18.77.611.667.90.0%23.9%75.9%0.0%
6Real Sociedad (13-7-12, 51 pts)14.99.413.758.40.0%0.1%64.0%0.0%
7Betis (12-8-12, 48 pts)14.110.213.756.00.0%0.0%20.9%0.0%
8Valencia (13-11-8, 47 pts)15.113.29.754.90.0%0.0%15.0%0.0%
9Villarreal (11-12-9, 42 pts)13.114.310.649.90.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%
10Getafe (9-10-13, 40 pts)11.112.214.648.00.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%
11Osasuna (11-15-6, 39 pts)12.817.57.746.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
12Sevilla (9-13-10, 37 pts)11.215.111.745.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
13Las Palmas (10-15-7, 37 pts)11.917.48.844.40.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%
14Alaves (9-15-8, 35 pts)10.717.79.641.70.0%0.0%0.0%0.5%
15Rayo Vallecano (7-12-13, 34 pts)8.714.714.640.70.0%0.0%0.0%0.9%
16Celta Vigo (7-15-10, 31 pts)8.917.411.738.40.0%0.0%0.0%3.1%
17Mallorca (6-13-13, 31 pts)7.915.514.738.20.0%0.0%0.0%4.4%
18Cadiz (4-15-13, 25 pts)5.617.814.731.40.0%0.0%0.0%91.1%
19Granada (3-20-9, 18 pts)4.822.610.625.00.0%0.0%0.0%99.9%
20Almeria (1-20-11, 14 pts)2.822.612.720.90.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%

Predictions Methodology

Spain's La Liga is arguably the world's strongest soccer league. Twenty teams play 38 games in the league. The top four teams make Champions League. Teams that finish 5th through 7th make the Europa League. The teams that finish at the bottom of the table are relegated to La Liga 2.