Spain La Liga Predictions

Updated

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Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Athletic Club
Getafe		42.2%
28.0%		29.8%
+118
+288
+110
+290
2
0		-0.80786-0.78794-0.86325
Valencia
Barcelona		8.9%
75.5%		15.6%
+835
-287
+825
-305
2
4		-0.31682-0.32569-0.28124
Sevilla
Betis		25.2%
48.8%		26.0%
+315
+105
+290
+103
1
1		-1.26302-1.26603-1.34604
Rayo Vallecano
Villarreal		17.7%
60.4%		21.9%
+362
-120
+346
-125
0
3		-0.62755-0.62982-0.50428
Osasuna
Granada		28.7%
43.9%		27.4%
+249
+142
+240
+150
0
3		-0.90587-0.93805-0.82260
Mallorca
Cadiz		28.7%
41.6%		29.7%
+214
+186
+218
+170
1
1		-1.06613-1.08240-1.21396
Athletic Club
Atletico Madrid		18.6%
56.7%		24.7%
+321
-102
+315
-110
1
3		-0.70336-0.69433-0.56697
Celta Vigo
Alaves		32.7%
38.1%		29.2%
+200
+170
+190
+170
0
3		-1.01418-1.03541-0.96469
Getafe
Almeria		32.6%
37.5%		29.9%
+196
+160
+187
+170
3
1		-1.11398-1.07590-1.12061
Girona
Las Palmas		32.8%
37.8%		29.4%
-143
+423
-130
+390
2
0		-0.55236-0.58783-1.11474
Real Madrid
Real Sociedad		55.0%
20.7%		24.3%
+233
+144
+222
+140
1
0		-1.21878-1.20835-0.59796
Mallorca
Sevilla		14.9%
62.7%		22.4%
+325
+112
+325
+110
1
2		-0.77072-0.77542-0.46695
Barcelona
Real Madrid		19.2%
57.9%		22.9%
+335
-134
+340
-138
2
3		-0.58438-0.57882-0.54626
Atletico Madrid
Alaves		59.5%
16.7%		23.8%
-124
+440
-120
+410
0
2		-1.70898-1.66850-1.78988
Villarreal
Almeria		40.7%
32.3%		27.0%
-102
+258
-105
+250
2
1		-0.71109-0.71584-0.89948
Real Sociedad
Getafe		38.5%
31.4%		30.1%
+125
+291
+115
+301
1
1		-1.14728-1.14536-1.20071
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.80786 
Sportsbooks11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.78794 
DRatings11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.86325
-0.05539
-0.07531

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 04/29/24
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Real Madrid (26-1-6, 84 pts)29.41.77.095.0100.0%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2Barcelona (22-4-7, 73 pts)25.04.98.283.00.0%100.0%0.0%0.0%
3Girona (22-6-5, 71 pts)23.68.16.377.10.0%99.7%0.3%0.0%
4Atletico Madrid (20-9-4, 64 pts)22.810.05.273.70.0%95.6%4.4%0.0%
5Athletic Club (16-7-10, 58 pts)18.48.311.366.60.0%4.7%95.3%0.0%
6Real Sociedad (13-8-12, 51 pts)14.79.813.457.60.0%0.0%62.6%0.0%
7Betis (12-8-13, 49 pts)13.99.714.456.00.0%0.0%25.1%0.0%
8Valencia (13-12-8, 47 pts)14.913.79.554.00.0%0.0%10.9%0.0%
9Villarreal (12-12-9, 45 pts)13.813.910.351.80.0%0.0%1.4%0.0%
10Getafe (10-10-13, 43 pts)11.612.114.349.10.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
11Osasuna (11-16-6, 39 pts)12.418.27.444.50.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
12Sevilla (9-13-11, 38 pts)10.714.912.444.50.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
13Alaves (10-15-8, 38 pts)11.417.39.343.60.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
14Las Palmas (10-16-7, 37 pts)11.717.98.443.50.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%
15Rayo Vallecano (7-13-13, 34 pts)8.315.314.439.30.0%0.0%0.0%1.2%
16Mallorca (6-13-14, 32 pts)7.415.215.437.70.0%0.0%0.0%2.3%
17Celta Vigo (7-16-10, 31 pts)8.418.111.536.70.0%0.0%0.0%6.6%
18Cadiz (4-15-14, 26 pts)5.317.315.431.20.0%0.0%0.0%90.8%
19Granada (4-20-9, 21 pts)5.422.210.326.60.0%0.0%0.0%99.0%
20Almeria (1-21-11, 14 pts)2.523.112.419.90.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%

Predictions Methodology

Spain's La Liga is arguably the world's strongest soccer league. Twenty teams play 38 games in the league. The top four teams make Champions League. Teams that finish 5th through 7th make the Europa League. The teams that finish at the bottom of the table are relegated to La Liga 2.