Spain La Liga Predictions

Updated

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Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Mallorca
Sevilla		14.9%
62.7%		22.4%
+325
+112
+325
+110
1
2		-0.77072-0.77542-0.46695
Barcelona
Real Madrid		19.2%
57.9%		22.9%
+335
-134
+340
-138
2
3		-0.58438-0.57882-0.54626
Atletico Madrid
Alaves		59.5%
16.7%		23.8%
-124
+440
-120
+410
0
2		-1.70898-1.66850-1.78988
Villarreal
Almeria		40.7%
32.3%		27.0%
-102
+258
-105
+250
2
1		-0.71109-0.71584-0.89948
Real Sociedad
Getafe		38.5%
31.4%		30.1%
+125
+291
+115
+301
1
1		-1.14728-1.14536-1.20071
Cadiz
Girona		16.0%
61.0%		23.0%
+770
-242
+700
-250
1
4		-0.36856-0.38094-0.49376
Betis
Valencia		28.4%
45.3%		26.3%
+191
+177
+200
+173
2
1		-1.09201-1.12575-1.25984
Osasuna
Rayo Vallecano		29.3%
42.6%		28.1%
+319
+115
+320
+115
1
2		-0.79149-0.79505-0.85418
Las Palmas
Celta Vigo		19.4%
56.6%		24.0%
+460
-147
+460
-135
1
4		-0.54362-0.57038-0.56948
Granada
Athletic Club		11.6%
69.5%		18.9%
+1015
-338
+1050
-360
1
1		-1.79824-1.81327-1.66701
Valencia
Osasuna		31.5%
40.2%		28.2%
+247
+144
+245
+140
1
0		-1.26972-1.27744-1.15410
Almeria
Real Sociedad		11.1%
70.9%		18.0%
+1140
-317
+1129
-350
2
2		-1.74200-1.74491-1.71663
Villarreal
Athletic Club		17.2%
60.6%		22.2%
+455
-156
+438
-135
1
1		-1.48939-1.42441-1.50602
Alaves
Granada		23.8%
49.8%		26.3%
+199
+205
+190
+200
0
2		-1.09991-1.10464-0.69647
Sevilla
Las Palmas		38.0%
32.2%		29.8%
+162
+195
+160
+189
2
0		-0.98216-0.99774-0.96856
Barcelona
Cadiz		71.5%
10.4%		18.1%
+107
+290
+110
+310
1
0		-0.74697-0.75184-0.33550
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.77072 
Sportsbooks11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.77542 
DRatings11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.46695
0.30377
0.30847

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 04/15/24
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Real Madrid (24-1-6, 78 pts)28.22.27.592.297.8%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2Barcelona (21-3-7, 70 pts)24.94.58.783.22.2%99.9%0.1%0.0%
3Girona (20-6-5, 65 pts)22.48.76.974.20.0%86.9%13.1%0.0%
4Atletico Madrid (19-8-4, 61 pts)22.89.55.774.00.0%86.3%13.7%0.0%
5Athletic Club (16-6-9, 57 pts)19.37.810.968.80.0%26.9%73.0%0.0%
6Real Sociedad (13-7-11, 50 pts)15.49.613.059.20.0%0.0%68.4%0.0%
7Valencia (13-10-8, 47 pts)15.312.610.056.00.0%0.0%20.6%0.0%
8Betis (11-8-12, 45 pts)13.610.414.054.70.0%0.0%10.7%0.0%
9Villarreal (10-12-9, 39 pts)12.714.410.949.00.0%0.0%0.2%0.0%
10Getafe (9-10-12, 39 pts)11.412.813.948.00.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%
11Osasuna (11-14-6, 39 pts)13.316.78.047.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
12Las Palmas (10-14-7, 37 pts)12.316.79.145.90.0%0.0%0.1%0.1%
13Sevilla (8-13-10, 34 pts)10.515.512.043.40.0%0.0%0.0%0.3%
14Alaves (8-15-8, 32 pts)9.818.39.939.20.0%0.0%0.0%3.8%
15Mallorca (6-12-13, 31 pts)8.114.915.039.40.0%0.0%0.0%3.7%
16Rayo Vallecano (6-12-13, 31 pts)7.915.215.038.60.0%0.0%0.0%5.1%
17Celta Vigo (6-15-10, 28 pts)8.217.812.036.70.0%0.0%0.0%11.7%
18Cadiz (4-14-13, 25 pts)5.817.215.032.40.0%0.0%0.0%75.7%
19Granada (3-20-8, 17 pts)5.123.09.925.20.0%0.0%0.0%99.6%
20Almeria (1-19-11, 14 pts)2.922.113.021.70.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%

Predictions Methodology

Spain's La Liga is arguably the world's strongest soccer league. Twenty teams play 38 games in the league. The top four teams make Champions League. Teams that finish 5th through 7th make the Europa League. The teams that finish at the bottom of the table are relegated to La Liga 2.