Bracketology


NCAA Basketball Bracketology

Welcome to the Donchess Inference Index Bracketology page! Here, we will be updating our bracketology predictions as we get closer to March Madness. To come up with our bracketology predictions, we used the NCAA college basketball DII ratings as a base seeding of the teams and used a formula adding strength of schedule (SOS) to come up with the Bracket Rating. As is customary with the NCAA tournament, we also include the automatic qualifiers which are the champions from the conference tournaments. If the conference champion hasn’t yet been determined, then the highest rated team is predicted to be the champion. The DII takes into account a variety of key indicators that are very good predictors of which teams will make the final tournament.

Note that below there are 68 teams that make the NCAA tournament, and the winners of each conference are automatically included in the tournament. Because there are four play-in games, there are 2 seed groups that will have more than 4 teams.

Early in the season (pre-January) a lot of the teams may appear to have some strange seedings. Before teams get into conference play, there is a lot of projection that needs to be done to seed the teams. Once January and February comes along the projections are slowly worked out of the equation and only actual results are used.

* denotes that the team gets an automatic bid due to winning their conference.
# denotes first round play-in game

Updated on 3/13/2016 @ 5:07pm ET.

Bracketology – NCAA Tournament – On the Bubble Teams

Last Four In First Four Out Next Four Out
San Diego St
Oregon St
USC
South Carolina
Temple
St Bonaventure
G Washington
Syracuse
Florida
Tulsa
Valparaiso
Houston


Bet NCAA Basketball at Bovada – Our top-rated Sportsbook: Join Bovada
See our detailed review of Bovada here: Bovada Sportsbook Review

Bracketology – 2016 NCAA Tournament Predictions

Seed Team Conf Record Bracket Seed SOS (Rank)
1 Seeds
Kansas
B12*
30-4
NCAA – 1
2.395 (7)
Virginia
ACC
26-7
NCAA – 1
2.526 (2)
North Carolina
ACC*
28-6
NCAA – 1
2.203 (14)
Villanova
BE
29-5
NCAA – 2
2.042 (21)
2 Seeds
Oklahoma
B12
25-7
NCAA – 2
2.503 (3)
Michigan St
B10*
29-5
NCAA – 2
1.517 (59)
Oregon
P12*
28-6
NCAA – 1
1.873 (37)
West Virginia
B12
26-8
NCAA – 3
2.436 (5)
3 Seeds
Xavier
BE
27-5
NCAA – 2
1.901 (34)
Miami FL
ACC
25-7
NCAA – 3
2.309 (11)
Kentucky
SEC*
26-8
NCAA – 4
1.919 (31)
Indiana
B10
25-7
NCAA – 5
1.253 (70)
4 Seeds
Utah
P12
26-8
NCAA – 3
1.914 (32)
Seton Hall
BE*
25-8
NCAA – 6
1.735 (43)
Texas A&M
SEC
26-8
NCAA – 3
1.773 (39)
Duke
ACC
23-10
NCAA – 4
2.323 (9)
5 Seeds
Purdue
B10
26-8
NCAA – 5
1.588 (51)
Iowa St
B12
21-11
NCAA – 4
2.456 (4)
California
P12
23-10
NCAA – 4
1.938 (29)
Arizona
P12
25-8
NCAA – 6
1.564 (56)
6 Seeds
Iowa
B10
21-9
NCAA – 7
1.740 (42)
Texas
B12
20-12
NCAA – 6
2.767 (1)
Baylor
B12
22-11
NCAA – 5
2.154 (16)
Maryland
B10
25-8
NCAA – 5
1.467 (62)
7 Seeds
Providence
BE
23-10
NCAA – 9
1.689 (47)
Notre Dame
ACC
21-11
NCAA – 6
1.999 (23)
Butler
BE
21-10
NCAA – 9
1.580 (52)
Connecticut
AAC*
24-10
NCAA – 9
1.174 (72)
8 Seeds
St Joseph’s PA
A10*
27-7
NCAA – 8
1.033 (81)
Wisconsin
B10
20-12
NCAA – 7
1.957 (26)
Wichita St
MVC
24-8
NCAA – 11
0.356 (107)
Dayton
A10
25-7
NCAA – 7
1.138 (75)
9 Seeds
Gonzaga
WCC*
26-7
NCAA – 11
0.354 (108)
Colorado
P12
22-11
NCAA – 8
1.567 (55)
Cincinnati
AAC
22-10
NCAA – 9
1.069 (79)
Texas Tech
B12
19-12
NCAA – 8
2.422 (6)
10 Seeds
Pittsburgh
ACC
21-11
NCAA – 10
1.611 (50)
Vanderbilt
SEC
19-13
NCAA – 11
1.899 (35)
VA Commonwealth
A10
24-10
NCAA – 10
0.932 (86)
Michigan
B10
22-12
NCAA – 11
1.451 (65)
11 Seeds
St Mary’s CA
WCC
27-5
NIT – 2
-0.22 (151)
South Carolina
SEC#
24-8
NIT – 1
1.024 (83)
USC
P12#
21-12
NCAA – 8
1.811 (38)
Oregon St
P12#
19-12
NCAA – 7
2.014 (22)
San Diego St
MWC#
25-9
NIT – 2
0.467 (105)
UNC Wilmington
CAA*
25-7
NIT – 2
-0.09 (140)
12 Seeds
Hawaii
BWC*
27-5
NCAA – 13
-0.80 (225)
Yale
Ivy*
22-6
NCAA – 12
-0.58 (199)
Ark Little Rock
SBC*
29-4
NCAA – 12
-0.94 (242)
Northern Iowa
MVC*
22-12
NCAA – 11
0.519 (102)
13 Seeds
S Dakota St
SL*
26-7
NCAA – 12
-0.39 (166)
Fresno St
MWC*
25-9
NCAA – 14
-0.06 (139)
Iona
MAAC*
22-10
NCAA – 13
-0.27 (157)
SF Austin
SLC*
27-5
NCAA – 14
-1.86 (333)
14 Seeds
Chattanooga
SC*
29-5
NCAA – 12
-0.80 (226)
Stony Brook
AEC*
26-6
NCAA – 13
-1.29 (278)
Buffalo
MAC*
20-14
NCAA – 14
0.189 (120)
MTSU
CUSA*
24-9
NCAA – 15
-0.67 (210)
15 Seeds
WI Green Bay
HL*
23-12
NCAA – 14
-0.46 (179)
UNC Asheville
BSo*
22-11
NCAA – 15
-0.98 (248)
CS Bakersfield
WAC*
24-8
NCAA – 15
-1.81 (332)
Weber St
BSC*
25-8
NCAA – 15
-1.55 (316)
16 Seeds
FL Gulf Coast
ASC*
20-13
NCAA – 16
-1.50 (307)
Austin Peay
OVC*
18-17
NCAA – 16
-0.93 (240)
Hampton
MEAC*#
21-10
NCAA – 16
-1.91 (337)
Southern Univ
SWAC*#
22-12
NCAA – 16
-2.15 (346)
F Dickinson
NEC*#
18-14
NCAA – 16
-1.67 (325)
Holy Cross
PL*#
14-19
NCAA – 16
-1.21 (271)

To see how the DII bracketology compares to other bracketologists see: The Bracket Project


  Bet at 5dimes
Bet NCAA Basketball at 5Dimes- Our #2 rated Sportsbook: Join 5Dimes
See our detailed review of 5Dimes here: 5Dimes Sportsbook Review

Bracketology – 2016 NIT Tournament Predictions

For the hardcore college basketball fan, we have now introduced bracketology for the NIT tournament (otherwise known as NITology). The NIT takes the next 32 best teams that did not make the NCAA tournament.

All regular season champions that did not win their conference tournament automatically qualify for the National Invitation Tournament (NIT). It is important to note that early predictions will be flawed because of this rule. Typically, there are about seven to nine teams that win their conference in the regular season but don’t win their conference tournament and end up in the NIT. So, in early predictions, if your team is a seven or eight seed, then it is likely they won’t make the tournament because of these auto qualifiers.

* denotes that the team gets an automatic bid due to winning their conference in the regular season.

Seed Team Conf Record Bracket Seed SOS (Rank)
1 Seeds
Temple
AAC*
21-11
NCAA – 10
1.312 (69)
St Bonaventure
A10
22-8
NIT – 1
0.630 (98)
G Washington
A10
23-10
NIT – 4
0.857 (90)
Syracuse
ACC
19-13
NCAA – 10
1.952 (27)
2 Seeds
Florida
SEC
19-14
NIT – 2
2.126 (19)
Tulsa
AAC
20-11
NCAA – 11
1.154 (74)
Valparaiso
HL*
26-6
NIT – 1
-0.42 (170)
Houston
AAC
22-9
NIT – 5
0.267 (114)
3 Seeds
Florida St
ACC
19-13
NIT – 4
1.757 (40)
Creighton
BE
18-14
NIT – 4
1.511 (61)
Georgia Tech
ACC
19-14
NIT – 4
2.150 (17)
Virginia Tech
ACC
19-14
NIT – 3
1.616 (49)
4 Seeds
Hofstra
CAA*
24-9
NIT – 6
0.295 (110)
Georgia
SEC
19-13
NIT – 3
1.903 (33)
Washington
P12
18-14
NIT – 3
1.939 (28)
Clemson
ACC
17-14
Out
1.462 (63)
5 Seeds
LSU
SEC
19-14
Out
1.537 (57)
Ohio St
B10
19-13
NIT – 3
1.408 (67)
BYU
WCC
23-10
NIT – 2
0.072 (127)
Princeton
Ivy
22-6
NIT – 6
-0.51 (190)
6 Seeds
Mississippi
SEC
20-12
Out
1.052 (80)
Monmouth NJ
MAAC*
27-7
NIT – 1
-0.25 (155)
Akron
MAC*
26-8
Out
-0.24 (153)
UAB
CUSA*
26-6
NIT – 7
-0.97 (246)
7 Seeds
IPFW
SL*
24-9
NIT – 7
-0.43 (172)
New Mexico St
WAC*
23-10
NIT – 7
-1.20 (269)
Belmont
OVC*
20-10
NIT – 6
-0.60 (202)
High Point
BSo*
21-10
NIT – 8
-1.26 (275)
8 Seeds
North Florida
ASC*
22-11
NIT – 7
-1.37 (296)
Bucknell
PL*
17-13
NIT – 8
-1.23 (273)
TX Southern
SWAC*
18-14
NIT – 8
-1.37 (294)
Wagner
NEC*
22-10
NIT – 8
-2.13 (345)


Bet NCAA Basketball at Top Bet: Join Top Bet
See our detailed review of Top Bet here: TopBet Sportsbook Review

Share Button