Bracketology


Tournament Bracket

Welcome to our Bracketology page! Here we plan to prep you for everything that will take place during March Madness! To come up with our bracketology predictions, we use a combination of variables including our own NCAA college basketball ratings, RPI, strength of schedule (SOS), and few other factors to come up with the Bracket Rating. As is customary with the NCAA tournament, we also include the automatic qualifiers which are the champions from the conference tournaments. If the conference champion hasn’t yet been determined, then the highest rated team is predicted to be the champion. All of the factors that we use are key indicators that are very good predictors of which teams will make the final tournament.

Note that below there are 68 teams that make the NCAA tournament, and the winners of each conference are automatically included in the tournament. Because there are four play-in games, there are 2 seed groups that will have more than 4 teams.

Early in the season (pre-January) a lot of the teams may appear to have some strange seedings. Before teams get into conference play, there is a lot of projection that needs to be done to seed the teams. As we get into January and February, the projections are slowly worked out of the equation and only actual results are used.

* denotes that the team gets an automatic bid due to winning their conference.
# denotes first round play-in game

Updated on 2/18/2018 @ 11:38am ET.

Bracketology – NCAA Tournament – Bubble Teams

Last Four In First Four Out Next Four Out
Louisville
Providence
UCLA
Penn St
Syracuse
Mississippi St
LSU
Nebraska
St Bonaventure
Utah
Notre Dame
USC


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Bracketology – 2018 NCAA Tournament Seeding Predictions

Projected Seed Team Conf Record Bracket Rating SOS (Rank)
1 Seeds
Virginia
ACC*
24-2
13.62
0.900 (20)
Villanova
Big East*
24-3
12.81
0.994 (9)
Xavier
Big East
24-4
10.95
1.023 (8)
Kansas
Big 12*
21-6
10.63
1.122 (1)
2 Seeds
Duke
ACC
21-5
10.07
0.840 (26)
North Carolina
ACC
21-7
10.06
1.122 (2)
Purdue
Big Ten*
23-5
10.04
0.700 (40)
Auburn
SEC*
23-4
9.760
0.703 (37)
3 Seeds
Michigan St
Big Ten
26-3
9.688
0.513 (67)
Texas Tech
Big 12
22-5
9.335
0.696 (41)
Cincinnati
AAC*
23-3
9.188
0.283 (87)
Clemson
ACC
20-5
8.972
0.772 (32)
4 Seeds
Arizona
Pac-12*
21-6
8.489
0.703 (38)
West Virginia
Big 12
19-8
8.443
0.804 (30)
Tennessee
SEC
19-7
8.323
1.094 (5)
Ohio St
Big Ten
22-6
7.985
0.689 (43)
5 Seeds
Gonzaga
WCC*
25-4
7.505
-0.01 (131)
Oklahoma
Big 12
16-10
7.238
1.081 (6)
Florida St
ACC
18-8
6.990
0.682 (44)
Kentucky
SEC
18-9
6.948
1.103 (3)
6 Seeds
Wichita St
AAC
20-5
6.923
0.489 (71)
Texas A&M
SEC
17-10
6.773
1.068 (7)
Florida
SEC
17-10
6.768
0.899 (21)
Arkansas
SEC
19-8
6.734
0.887 (25)
7 Seeds
TCU
Big 12
18-9
6.611
0.938 (14)
Houston
AAC
20-5
6.565
0.273 (88)
Arizona St
Pac-12
19-7
6.530
0.671 (46)
Alabama
SEC
17-10
6.519
0.967 (11)
8 Seeds
Nevada
MWC*
23-5
6.514
0.495 (69)
Missouri
SEC
18-9
6.370
0.807 (29)
Butler
Big East
18-10
6.312
0.925 (16)
Rhode Island
A-10*
21-4
6.311
0.350 (80)
9 Seeds
Creighton
Big East
18-8
6.306
0.598 (55)
Michigan
Big Ten
21-7
6.304
0.421 (73)
Kansas St
Big 12
19-8
6.278
0.717 (36)
Baylor
Big 12
17-10
6.215
0.720 (35)
10 Seeds
NC State
ACC
18-9
6.183
0.562 (61)
Virginia Tech
ACC
19-8
6.152
0.491 (70)
Seton Hall
Big East
17-9
6.032
0.927 (15)
Texas
Big 12
16-11
5.848
0.982 (10)
11 Seeds
St Mary’s CA
WCC
25-4
5.616
0.005 (126)
Miami FL
ACC
18-8
5.574
0.565 (60)
Penn St
Big Ten#
19-9
5.363
0.407 (76)
UCLA
Pac-12#
19-8
5.207
0.574 (58)
Providence
Big East#
17-10
5.157
0.890 (22)
Louisville
ACC#
18-9
5.110
0.654 (49)
12 Seeds
MTSU
CUSA*
22-5
4.516
0.089 (115)
Loyola-Chicago
MVC*
21-5
4.121
-0.05 (139)
ULL
Sun Belt*
23-4
3.643
-0.44 (240)
New Mexico St
WAC*
22-5
3.488
-0.42 (233)
13 Seeds
Vermont
AEC*
22-5
3.412
-0.32 (196)
ETSU
Southern*
23-5
2.960
-0.52 (264)
S Dakota St
Summit*
23-6
2.926
-0.47 (248)
Buffalo
MAC*
21-8
2.869
0.072 (121)
14 Seeds
Murray St
OVC*
22-5
2.862
-0.63 (294)
Montana
Big Sky*
19-7
2.447
-0.32 (197)
Rider
MAAC*
20-7
1.718
-0.25 (171)
UC Santa Barbara
Big West*
20-6
1.688
-0.46 (245)
15 Seeds
Col Charleston
Colonial*
22-6
1.627
-0.50 (255)
Bucknell
Patriot*
20-9
1.190
-0.25 (173)
N Kentucky
Horizon*
16-8
1.176
-0.44 (239)
Penn
Ivy*
19-7
0.894
-0.55 (269)
16 Seeds
SF Austin
Southland*
21-5
0.765
-1.13 (347)
Wagner
NEC*
20-7
0.224
-0.91 (338)
Winthrop
Big South*#
17-9
0.151
-0.74 (318)
FL Gulf Coast
ASUN*#
19-10
-0.32
-0.66 (303)
NC A&T
MEAC*#
16-12
-4.86
-1.00 (343)
Prairie View
SWAC*#
11-16
-6.42
-0.51 (259)

There are currently three teams that are ineligible for the 2018 tournament due to APR. These teams are Alabama A&M, Grambling and SE Missouri St.


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Bracketology – 2018 NIT Tournament Bracket Predictions

For the hardcore college basketball fan, we have now introduced bracketology for the NIT tournament (otherwise known as NITology). The NIT takes the next 32 best teams that did not make the NCAA tournament.

All regular season champions that did not win their conference tournament automatically qualify for the National Invitation Tournament (NIT). It is important to note that early predictions will be flawed because of this rule. Typically, there are about seven to nine teams that win their conference in the regular season but don’t win their conference tournament and end up in the NIT. So, in early predictions, if your team is a seven or eight seed, then it is likely they won’t make the tournament because of these auto qualifiers.

* denotes that the team gets an automatic bid due to winning their conference in the regular season.

Seed Team Conf Record Bracket Rating SOS (Rank)
1 Seeds
Syracuse
ACC
18-9
4.883
0.702 (39)
Mississippi St
SEC
19-8
4.734
0.225 (95)
LSU
SEC
15-11
4.730
0.812 (28)
Nebraska
Big Ten
20-8
4.636
0.504 (68)
2 Seeds
St Bonaventure
A-10
20-6
4.390
0.213 (98)
Utah
Pac-12
17-9
4.341
0.570 (59)
Notre Dame
ACC
16-11
4.322
0.678 (45)
USC
Pac-12
19-9
4.258
0.606 (54)
3 Seeds
Georgia
SEC
15-11
4.225
0.907 (19)
Marquette
Big East
15-11
4.222
0.947 (13)
Washington
Pac-12
18-9
3.976
0.556 (63)
Boise St
MWC
20-6
3.900
0.170 (101)
4 Seeds
Maryland
Big Ten
17-11
3.895
0.639 (53)
WKU
CUSA
19-7
3.795
0.123 (109)
Oklahoma St
Big 12
15-12
3.564
0.752 (34)
Temple
AAC
15-11
3.321
0.907 (18)
5 Seeds
Old Dominion
CUSA
21-5
3.195
-0.30 (189)
UCF
AAC
17-9
3.174
0.413 (74)
Oregon
Pac-12
17-10
3.110
0.352 (79)
UNLV
MWC
19-8
2.828
-0.13 (151)
6 Seeds
South Dakota
Summit
23-6
2.824
-0.50 (254)
Fresno St
MWC
17-8
2.798
0.077 (119)
Boston College
ACC
16-11
2.671
0.514 (66)
Belmont
OVC
22-7
2.564
-0.26 (178)
7 Seeds
BYU
WCC
21-8
2.483
-0.08 (143)
Indiana
Big Ten
16-12
2.212
0.656 (48)
UNC Greensboro
Southern
19-7
2.187
-0.33 (201)
Georgetown
Big East
15-10
2.183
0.259 (89)
8 Seeds
San Diego St
MWC
15-10
1.953
0.144 (106)
SMU
AAC
15-12
1.669
0.345 (81)
Utah Valley
WAC
19-8
1.634
-0.53 (266)
Northeastern
Colonial
18-9
1.566
0.082 (117)