Bracketology


Welcome to the Donchess Inference Index Bracketology page! Here, we will be updating our bracketology predictions as we get closer to March Madness. To come up with our bracketology predictions, we used the NCAA college basketball DII ratings as a base seeding of the teams and used a formula adding strength of schedule (SOS) to come up with the Bracket Rating. As is customary with the NCAA tournament, we also include the automatic qualifiers which are the champions from the conference tournaments. If the conference champion hasn’t yet been determined, then the highest rated team is predicted to be the champion. The DII takes into account a variety of key indicators that are very good predictors of which teams will make the final tournament.

Note that below there are 68 teams that make the NCAA tournament, and the winners of each conference are automatically included in the tournament. Because there are four play-in games, there are 2 seed groups that will have more than 4 teams.

Early in the season (pre-January) a lot of the teams may appear to have some strange seedings. Before teams get into conference play, there is a lot of projection that needs to be done to seed the teams. Once January and February comes along the projections are slowly worked out of the equation and only actual results are used.

* denotes that the team gets an automatic bid due to winning their conference.
# denotes first round play-in game

Final: Updated on 3/12/2017 @ 5:08pm ET.

Bracketology – NCAA Tournament – On the Bubble Teams

Last Four In First Four Out Next Four Out
USC
Providence
Wake Forest
Kansas St
Illinois St
Syracuse
Iowa
California
Illinois
TCU
Indiana
UT Arlington


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Bracketology – 2017 NCAA Tournament Predictions

Projected Seed Team Conf Record Actual Seed SOS (Rank)
1 Seeds
Villanova
BE*
31-3
NCAA – 1
1.066 (23)
Kansas
B12
28-4
NCAA – 1
1.265 (7)
North Carolina
ACC
27-7
NCAA – 1
1.174 (15)
Gonzaga
WCC*
32-1
NCAA – 1
0.227 (94)
2 Seeds
Arizona
P12*
30-4
NCAA – 2
0.869 (49)
Duke
ACC*
27-8
NCAA – 2
1.276 (6)
Kentucky
SEC*
28-5
NCAA – 2
1.056 (25)
Oregon
P12
29-5
NCAA – 3
0.690 (67)
3 Seeds
Louisville
ACC
24-8
NCAA – 2
1.334 (2)
UCLA
P12
29-4
NCAA – 3
0.627 (70)
Baylor
B12
25-7
NCAA – 3
1.085 (20)
Florida St
ACC
25-8
NCAA – 3
1.078 (21)
4 Seeds
West Virginia
B12
26-8
NCAA – 4
0.921 (42)
Butler
BE
23-8
NCAA – 4
1.162 (16)
Florida
SEC
24-8
NCAA – 4
1.289 (4)
Notre Dame
ACC
25-9
NCAA – 5
1.032 (28)
5 Seeds
Virginia
ACC
22-10
NCAA – 5
1.297 (3)
Purdue
B10
25-7
NCAA – 4
0.906 (44)
Iowa St
B12*
23-10
NCAA – 5
1.234 (10)
SMU
AAC*
29-4
NCAA – 6
0.312 (89)
6 Seeds
Cincinnati
AAC
29-4
NCAA – 6
0.374 (84)
Minnesota
B10
24-9
NCAA – 5
0.974 (33)
Michigan
B10*
23-11
NCAA – 7
1.026 (29)
Creighton
BE
25-9
NCAA – 6
0.874 (48)
7 Seeds
Wisconsin
B10
25-8
NCAA – 8
0.857 (52)
St Mary’s CA
WCC
28-4
NCAA – 7
0.183 (101)
Maryland
B10
24-8
NCAA – 6
0.741 (63)
Miami FL
ACC
21-11
NCAA – 8
1.122 (17)
8 Seeds
Virginia Tech
ACC
22-10
NCAA – 9
0.929 (40)
Arkansas
SEC
25-8
NCAA – 8
0.805 (58)
Northwestern
B10
23-11
NCAA – 8
0.875 (47)
Oklahoma St
B12
20-12
NCAA – 10
1.118 (18)
9 Seeds
Wichita St
MVC*
30-4
NCAA – 10
-0.03 (128)
South Carolina
SEC
22-10
NCAA – 7
0.763 (62)
Dayton
A10
24-7
NCAA – 7
0.323 (88)
Seton Hall
BE
21-11
NCAA – 9
0.995 (32)
10 Seeds
Xavier
BE
21-13
NCAA – 11
1.216 (13)
VA Commonwealth
A10
26-7
NCAA – 10
0.409 (82)
Vanderbilt
SEC
19-15
NCAA – 9
1.226 (11)
Marquette
BE
19-12
NCAA – 10
0.943 (38)
11 Seeds
Michigan St
B10
19-14
NCAA – 9
1.174 (14)
MTSU
CUSA*
30-4
NCAA – 12
-0.30 (187)
Rhode Island
A10*
23-9
NCAA – 11
0.438 (81)
Kansas St
B12#
20-13
NCAA – 11
1.054 (26)
Wake Forest
ACC#
19-13
NCAA – 11
1.249 (9)
12 Seeds
Providence
BE#
20-12
NCAA – 11
0.816 (56)
USC
P12#
24-9
NCAA – 11
0.645 (69)
UNC Wilmington
CAA*
29-5
NCAA – 12
-0.17 (151)
Nevada
MWC*
28-6
NCAA – 12
0.134 (108)
Vermont
AEC*
29-5
NCAA – 13
-0.48 (234)
13 Seeds
ETSU
SC*
27-7
NCAA – 13
-0.29 (180)
Princeton
Ivy*
22-6
NCAA – 12
-0.34 (196)
Bucknell
PL*
26-8
NCAA – 13
-0.36 (199)
New Mexico St
WAC*
28-5
NCAA – 14
-0.80 (310)
14 Seeds
Winthrop
BSo*
26-6
NCAA – 13
-0.74 (298)
FL Gulf Coast
ASC*
26-7
NCAA – 14
-0.70 (284)
N Kentucky
HL*
24-10
NCAA – 15
-0.51 (245)
Iona
MAAC*
22-12
NCAA – 14
-0.20 (160)
15 Seeds
Kent
MAC*
22-13
NCAA – 14
-0.34 (197)
TX Southern
SWAC*
23-11
NCAA – 16
-0.73 (292)
North Dakota
BSC*
22-9
NCAA – 15
-0.98 (329)
Jacksonville St
OVC*
20-14
NCAA – 15
-0.48 (235)
16 Seeds
New Orleans
SLC*
20-11
NCAA – 16
-0.72 (290)
Troy
SBC*
21-14
NCAA – 15
-0.52 (249)
S Dakota St
SL*#
18-16
NCAA – 16
-0.25 (173)
NC Central
MEAC*#
25-8
NCAA – 16
-1.50 (351)
UC Davis
BWC*#
22-12
NCAA – 16
-0.84 (315)
Mt St Mary’s
NEC*#
19-15
NCAA – 16
-0.42 (221)

To see how the DII bracketology compares to other bracketologists see: The Bracket Project


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Bracketology – 2017 NIT Tournament Predictions

For the hardcore college basketball fan, we have now introduced bracketology for the NIT tournament (otherwise known as NITology). The NIT takes the next 32 best teams that did not make the NCAA tournament.

All regular season champions that did not win their conference tournament automatically qualify for the National Invitation Tournament (NIT). It is important to note that early predictions will be flawed because of this rule. Typically, there are about seven to nine teams that win their conference in the regular season but don’t win their conference tournament and end up in the NIT. So, in early predictions, if your team is a seven or eight seed, then it is likely they won’t make the tournament because of these auto qualifiers.

* denotes that the team gets an automatic bid due to winning their conference in the regular season.

Seed Team Conf Record Bracket Rating SOS (Rank)
1 Seeds
Illinois St
MVC*
27-6
NIT – 1
0.019 (120)
Syracuse
ACC
18-14
NIT – 1
0.956 (37)
Iowa
B10
18-14
NIT – 1
0.863 (51)
California
P12
21-12
NIT – 1
0.715 (65)
2 Seeds
Illinois
B10
18-14
NIT – 2
0.930 (39)
TCU
B12
19-15
NIT – 4
1.016 (31)
Indiana
B10
18-15
NIT – 3
0.926 (41)
UT Arlington
SBC*
25-8
NIT – 6
-0.18 (156)
3 Seeds
Georgia
SEC
19-14
NIT – 2
1.041 (27)
Monmouth NJ
MAAC*
27-6
NIT – 4
-0.23 (170)
Houston
AAC
21-10
NIT – 2
0.365 (85)
Alabama
SEC
19-14
NIT – 3
0.831 (55)
4 Seeds
Col Charleston
CAA
25-9
NIT – 5
0.011 (121)
BYU
WCC
22-11
NIT – 3
0.214 (96)
Mississippi
SEC
20-13
NIT – 5
0.768 (61)
Akron
MAC*
26-8
NIT – 7
-0.27 (176)
5 Seeds
Utah
P12
20-11
NIT – 3
0.190 (99)
UCF
AAC
21-11
NIT – 4
0.275 (92)
Belmont
OVC*
22-6
NIT – 7
-0.32 (192)
Clemson
ACC
17-15
NIT – 2
1.221 (12)
6 Seeds
Colorado St
MWC
23-11
NIT – 4
-0.04 (131)
Texas Tech
B12
18-14
Out
0.716 (64)
Valparaiso
HL
24-8
NIT – 7
-0.33 (193)
Boise St
MWC
19-11
NIT – 6
0.120 (110)
7 Seeds
Colorado
P12
19-14
NIT – 5
0.541 (77)
Richmond
A10
20-12
NIT – 6
0.347 (86)
UNC Asheville
BSo
23-9
Out
-0.52 (247)
UNC Greensboro
SC*
25-9
NIT – 8
-0.49 (237)
8 Seeds
CS Bakersfield
WAC*
22-9
NIT – 8
-0.60 (262)
Oakland
HL*
24-8
NIT – 7
-0.62 (269)
South Dakota
SL*
22-11
NIT – 8
-0.43 (224)
UC Irvine
BWC*
21-14
NIT – 8
-0.46 (232)

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