Bracketology


Tournament Bracket

Welcome to our Bracketology page! Here we plan to prep you for everything that will take place during March Madness! To come up with our bracketology predictions, we use a combination of variables including our own NCAA college basketball ratings, RPI, strength of schedule (SOS), and few other factors to come up with the Bracket Rating. As is customary with the NCAA tournament, we also include the automatic qualifiers which are the champions from the conference tournaments. If the conference champion hasn’t yet been determined, then the highest rated team is predicted to be the champion. All of the factors that we use are key indicators that are very good predictors of which teams will make the final tournament.

Note that below there are 68 teams that make the NCAA tournament, and the winners of each conference are automatically included in the tournament. Because there are four play-in games, there are 2 seed groups that will have more than 4 teams.

Early in the season (pre-January) a lot of the teams may appear to have some strange seedings. Before teams get into conference play, there is a lot of projection that needs to be done to seed the teams. As we get into January and February, the projections are slowly worked out of the equation and only actual results are used.

* denotes that the team gets an automatic bid due to winning their conference.
# denotes first round play-in game

Updated on 12/10/2018.

Bracketology – NCAA Tournament – Bubble Teams

Last Four In First Four Out Next Four Out
Utah St
Clemson
Oregon
LSU
Mississippi
Seton Hall
Xavier
West Virginia
NC State
San Francisco
Arkansas
Iowa


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Bracketology – 2019 NCAA Tournament Seeding Predictions

Projected Seed Team Conf Record Bracket Rating SOS (Rank)
1 Seeds
Kansas
Big 12*
8-0
15.12
1.557 (1)
Duke
ACC*
9-1
13.32
0.592 (31)
Michigan
Big Ten*
10-0
13.16
0.460 (47)
Gonzaga
WCC*
9-1
12.88
1.127 (5)
2 Seeds
Michigan St
Big Ten
8-2
11.21
0.874 (14)
Tennessee
SEC*
7-1
11.20
0.501 (41)
Wisconsin
Big Ten
8-2
10.92
1.057 (8)
Nevada
MWC*
10-0
10.85
0.430 (50)
3 Seeds
Virginia
ACC
9-0
10.20
-0.35 (168)
Florida St
ACC
8-1
9.228
0.627 (29)
Villanova
Big East*
8-2
9.179
0.406 (53)
North Carolina
ACC
7-2
9.079
0.436 (49)
4 Seeds
Auburn
SEC
8-1
8.966
-0.11 (129)
Ohio St
Big Ten
8-1
8.956
0.082 (97)
Indiana
Big Ten
8-2
8.944
0.666 (26)
Texas Tech
Big 12
8-0
8.831
-0.39 (181)
5 Seeds
Oklahoma
Big 12
8-1
8.577
1.110 (6)
Purdue
Big Ten
6-4
8.027
1.181 (3)
Virginia Tech
ACC
8-1
7.904
-0.17 (141)
Marquette
Big East
8-2
7.653
0.569 (34)
6 Seeds
Louisville
ACC
6-3
7.575
0.958 (11)
Nebraska
Big Ten
8-2
7.375
0.324 (58)
Syracuse
ACC
7-2
7.266
0.317 (60)
Arizona
Pac-12*
7-3
7.178
0.854 (16)
7 Seeds
Cincinnati
AAC*
9-1
7.177
-0.09 (128)
Arizona St
Pac-12
7-1
7.142
0.174 (81)
Kentucky
SEC
7-2
7.043
-0.27 (159)
Mississippi St
SEC
8-1
7.029
-0.18 (142)
8 Seeds
Buffalo
MAC*
9-0
6.943
-0.41 (184)
Maryland
Big Ten
8-2
6.795
0.125 (90)
Texas
Big 12
6-3
6.687
0.889 (13)
Butler
Big East
7-2
6.471
0.280 (67)
9 Seeds
Kansas St
Big 12
6-2
6.339
0.077 (99)
Florida
SEC
5-4
6.330
0.930 (12)
Creighton
Big East
6-3
6.192
1.078 (7)
Washington
Pac-12
7-3
6.175
0.815 (20)
10 Seeds
Minnesota
Big Ten
8-2
6.145
0.582 (33)
Iowa St
Big 12
8-2
6.098
-0.17 (140)
TCU
Big 12
7-1
6.022
-0.15 (136)
Houston
AAC
8-0
6.005
-0.81 (270)
11 Seeds
St John’s
Big East
9-0
5.790
-0.75 (255)
UCLA
Pac-12
7-2
5.748
-0.07 (122)
LSU
SEC#
7-2
5.658
0.093 (95)
Oregon
Pac-12#
5-3
5.526
0.238 (74)
Clemson
ACC#
6-3
5.278
0.225 (76)
Utah St
MWC#
8-2
5.220
0.110 (92)
12 Seeds
Davidson
A-10*
8-1
4.813
-0.08 (124)
Belmont
OVC*
7-1
4.333
-0.36 (171)
Lipscomb
ASUN*
7-2
4.317
-0.37 (174)
New Mexico St
WAC*
7-2
4.227
-0.18 (144)
13 Seeds
Wofford
Southern*
8-3
3.887
-0.64 (236)
UC Irvine
Big West*
9-2
3.816
-0.19 (147)
S Illinois
MVC*
7-3
3.709
0.175 (80)
Georgia St
Sun Belt*
6-3
3.635
0.693 (23)
14 Seeds
Liberty
Big South*
7-2
3.421
-1.05 (313)
Yale
Ivy*
4-3
3.264
0.793 (21)
N Colorado
Big Sky*
5-1
3.091
-0.64 (237)
Col Charleston
Colonial*
8-2
2.980
-0.69 (246)
15 Seeds
Vermont
AEC*
7-3
2.871
0.030 (108)
WKU
CUSA*
5-4
2.597
0.372 (56)
N Kentucky
Horizon*
8-3
2.119
-1.06 (315)
Holy Cross
Patriot*
6-4
1.906
0.286 (66)
16 Seeds
S Dakota St
Summit*
8-3
1.756
-1.20 (329)
Abilene Chr
Southland*
9-1
1.673
-1.78 (352)
Howard
MEAC*#
5-3
-1.57
-0.93 (291)
St Francis NY
NEC*#
5-4
-2.14
-1.02 (309)
TX Southern
SWAC*#
4-6
-2.72
0.710 (22)
Rider
MAAC*#
2-3
-3.01
-0.02 (116)

There is currently one team that is ineligible for the 2019 tournament due to APR. That team is Alabama A&M.


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Bracketology – 2019 NIT Tournament Bracket Predictions

For the hardcore college basketball fan, we have now introduced bracketology for the NIT tournament (otherwise known as NITology). The NIT takes the next 32 best teams that did not make the NCAA tournament.

All regular season champions that did not win their conference tournament automatically qualify for the National Invitation Tournament (NIT). It is important to note that early predictions will be flawed because of this rule. Typically, there are about seven to nine teams that win their conference in the regular season but don’t win their conference tournament and end up in the NIT. So, in early predictions, if your team is a seven or eight seed, then it is likely they won’t make the tournament because of these auto qualifiers.

* denotes that the team gets an automatic bid due to winning their conference in the regular season.

Seed Team Conf Record Bracket Rating SOS (Rank)
1 Seeds
Mississippi
SEC
6-2
5.220
0.413 (52)
Seton Hall
Big East
6-3
5.173
0.462 (45)
Xavier
Big East
6-4
5.087
0.819 (18)
West Virginia
Big 12
6-3
4.983
-0.05 (119)
2 Seeds
NC State
ACC
8-1
4.876
-1.32 (338)
San Francisco
WCC
8-1
4.816
-0.70 (248)
Arkansas
SEC
6-2
4.809
-0.12 (131)
Iowa
Big Ten
7-2
4.771
0.615 (30)
3 Seeds
UCF
AAC
7-2
4.766
0.047 (103)
Notre Dame
ACC
6-3
4.580
0.162 (85)
VA Commonwealth
A-10
7-3
4.548
0.534 (39)
Colorado
Pac-12
7-1
4.455
-0.47 (193)
4 Seeds
Temple
AAC
7-2
4.448
0.135 (87)
Vanderbilt
SEC
6-2
4.396
-0.38 (178)
Alabama
SEC
6-3
4.375
0.453 (48)
Oregon St
Pac-12
6-2
4.288
0.036 (107)
5 Seeds
St Louis
A-10
7-2
4.183
-0.11 (130)
Georgetown
Big East
7-2
4.114
-0.02 (117)
Fresno St
MWC
7-2
4.098
-0.32 (166)
San Diego
WCC
8-2
4.094
-0.38 (177)
6 Seeds
St Mary’s CA
WCC
6-4
3.870
0.272 (69)
Penn St
Big Ten
5-4
3.867
0.860 (15)
BYU
WCC
7-3
3.858
-0.43 (188)
Dayton
A-10
5-4
3.845
0.380 (54)
7 Seeds
Providence
Big East
7-3
3.832
0.169 (84)
Toledo
MAC
9-1
3.826
-0.82 (272)
Georgia Tech
ACC
5-3
3.810
0.237 (75)
UNC Greensboro
Southern
8-2
3.713
-0.65 (238)
8 Seeds
Miami FL
ACC
5-4
3.712
0.073 (100)
Connecticut
AAC
7-3
3.694
-0.29 (163)
Loy Marymount
WCC
9-1
3.661
-0.83 (273)
Furman
Southern
10-0
3.608
-1.55 (346)