NCAA Basketball Bracketology
Welcome to the Donchess Inference Index Bracketology page! Here, we will be updating our bracketology predictions as we get closer to March Madness. To come up with our bracketology predictions, we used the NCAA college basketball DII ratings as a base seeding of the teams and used a formula adding strength of schedule (SOS) to come up with the Bracket Rating. As is customary with the NCAA tournament, we also include the automatic qualifiers which are the champions from the conference tournaments. If the conference champion hasn’t yet been determined, then the highest rated team is predicted to be the champion. The DII takes into account a variety of key indicators that are very good predictors of which teams will make the final tournament.
Note that below there are 68 teams that make the NCAA tournament, and the winners of each conference are automatically included in the tournament. Because there are four play-in games, there are 2 seed groups that will have more than 4 teams.
Early in the season (pre-January) a lot of the teams may appear to have some strange seedings. Before teams get into conference play, there is a lot of projection that needs to be done to seed the teams. Once January and February comes along the projections are slowly worked out of the equation and only actual results are used.
* denotes that the team gets an automatic bid due to winning their conference.
# denotes first round play-in game
Updated on 3/13/2016 @ 5:07pm ET.
Bracketology – NCAA Tournament – On the Bubble Teams
| Last Four In |
First Four Out |
Next Four Out |
San Diego St
Oregon St
USC
South Carolina |
Temple
St Bonaventure
G Washington
Syracuse |
Florida
Tulsa
Valparaiso
Houston |
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Bracketology – 2016 NCAA Tournament Predictions
| Seed |
Team |
Conf |
Record |
Bracket Seed |
SOS (Rank) |
| 1 Seeds |
Kansas |
B12* |
30-4 |
NCAA – 1 |
2.395 (7) |
| Virginia |
ACC |
26-7 |
NCAA – 1 |
2.526 (2) |
| North Carolina |
ACC* |
28-6 |
NCAA – 1 |
2.203 (14) |
| Villanova |
BE |
29-5 |
NCAA – 2 |
2.042 (21) |
| 2 Seeds |
Oklahoma |
B12 |
25-7 |
NCAA – 2 |
2.503 (3) |
| Michigan St |
B10* |
29-5 |
NCAA – 2 |
1.517 (59) |
| Oregon |
P12* |
28-6 |
NCAA – 1 |
1.873 (37) |
| West Virginia |
B12 |
26-8 |
NCAA – 3 |
2.436 (5) |
| 3 Seeds |
Xavier |
BE |
27-5 |
NCAA – 2 |
1.901 (34) |
| Miami FL |
ACC |
25-7 |
NCAA – 3 |
2.309 (11) |
| Kentucky |
SEC* |
26-8 |
NCAA – 4 |
1.919 (31) |
| Indiana |
B10 |
25-7 |
NCAA – 5 |
1.253 (70) |
| 4 Seeds |
Utah |
P12 |
26-8 |
NCAA – 3 |
1.914 (32) |
| Seton Hall |
BE* |
25-8 |
NCAA – 6 |
1.735 (43) |
| Texas A&M |
SEC |
26-8 |
NCAA – 3 |
1.773 (39) |
| Duke |
ACC |
23-10 |
NCAA – 4 |
2.323 (9) |
| 5 Seeds |
Purdue |
B10 |
26-8 |
NCAA – 5 |
1.588 (51) |
| Iowa St |
B12 |
21-11 |
NCAA – 4 |
2.456 (4) |
| California |
P12 |
23-10 |
NCAA – 4 |
1.938 (29) |
| Arizona |
P12 |
25-8 |
NCAA – 6 |
1.564 (56) |
| 6 Seeds |
Iowa |
B10 |
21-9 |
NCAA – 7 |
1.740 (42) |
| Texas |
B12 |
20-12 |
NCAA – 6 |
2.767 (1) |
| Baylor |
B12 |
22-11 |
NCAA – 5 |
2.154 (16) |
| Maryland |
B10 |
25-8 |
NCAA – 5 |
1.467 (62) |
| 7 Seeds |
Providence |
BE |
23-10 |
NCAA – 9 |
1.689 (47) |
| Notre Dame |
ACC |
21-11 |
NCAA – 6 |
1.999 (23) |
| Butler |
BE |
21-10 |
NCAA – 9 |
1.580 (52) |
| Connecticut |
AAC* |
24-10 |
NCAA – 9 |
1.174 (72) |
| 8 Seeds |
St Joseph’s PA |
A10* |
27-7 |
NCAA – 8 |
1.033 (81) |
| Wisconsin |
B10 |
20-12 |
NCAA – 7 |
1.957 (26) |
| Wichita St |
MVC |
24-8 |
NCAA – 11 |
0.356 (107) |
| Dayton |
A10 |
25-7 |
NCAA – 7 |
1.138 (75) |
| 9 Seeds |
Gonzaga |
WCC* |
26-7 |
NCAA – 11 |
0.354 (108) |
| Colorado |
P12 |
22-11 |
NCAA – 8 |
1.567 (55) |
| Cincinnati |
AAC |
22-10 |
NCAA – 9 |
1.069 (79) |
| Texas Tech |
B12 |
19-12 |
NCAA – 8 |
2.422 (6) |
| 10 Seeds |
Pittsburgh |
ACC |
21-11 |
NCAA – 10 |
1.611 (50) |
| Vanderbilt |
SEC |
19-13 |
NCAA – 11 |
1.899 (35) |
| VA Commonwealth |
A10 |
24-10 |
NCAA – 10 |
0.932 (86) |
| Michigan |
B10 |
22-12 |
NCAA – 11 |
1.451 (65) |
| 11 Seeds |
St Mary’s CA |
WCC |
27-5 |
NIT – 2 |
-0.22 (151) |
| South Carolina |
SEC# |
24-8 |
NIT – 1 |
1.024 (83) |
| USC |
P12# |
21-12 |
NCAA – 8 |
1.811 (38) |
| Oregon St |
P12# |
19-12 |
NCAA – 7 |
2.014 (22) |
San Diego St |
MWC# |
25-9 |
NIT – 2 |
0.467 (105) |
| UNC Wilmington |
CAA* |
25-7 |
NIT – 2 |
-0.09 (140) |
| 12 Seeds |
Hawaii |
BWC* |
27-5 |
NCAA – 13 |
-0.80 (225) |
| Yale |
Ivy* |
22-6 |
NCAA – 12 |
-0.58 (199) |
| Ark Little Rock |
SBC* |
29-4 |
NCAA – 12 |
-0.94 (242) |
| Northern Iowa |
MVC* |
22-12 |
NCAA – 11 |
0.519 (102) |
| 13 Seeds |
S Dakota St |
SL* |
26-7 |
NCAA – 12 |
-0.39 (166) |
| Fresno St |
MWC* |
25-9 |
NCAA – 14 |
-0.06 (139) |
| Iona |
MAAC* |
22-10 |
NCAA – 13 |
-0.27 (157) |
| SF Austin |
SLC* |
27-5 |
NCAA – 14 |
-1.86 (333) |
| 14 Seeds |
Chattanooga |
SC* |
29-5 |
NCAA – 12 |
-0.80 (226) |
| Stony Brook |
AEC* |
26-6 |
NCAA – 13 |
-1.29 (278) |
| Buffalo |
MAC* |
20-14 |
NCAA – 14 |
0.189 (120) |
| MTSU |
CUSA* |
24-9 |
NCAA – 15 |
-0.67 (210) |
| 15 Seeds |
WI Green Bay |
HL* |
23-12 |
NCAA – 14 |
-0.46 (179) |
| UNC Asheville |
BSo* |
22-11 |
NCAA – 15 |
-0.98 (248) |
| CS Bakersfield |
WAC* |
24-8 |
NCAA – 15 |
-1.81 (332) |
| Weber St |
BSC* |
25-8 |
NCAA – 15 |
-1.55 (316) |
| 16 Seeds |
FL Gulf Coast |
ASC* |
20-13 |
NCAA – 16 |
-1.50 (307) |
| Austin Peay |
OVC* |
18-17 |
NCAA – 16 |
-0.93 (240) |
| Hampton |
MEAC*# |
21-10 |
NCAA – 16 |
-1.91 (337) |
| Southern Univ |
SWAC*# |
22-12 |
NCAA – 16 |
-2.15 (346) |
F Dickinson |
NEC*# |
18-14 |
NCAA – 16 |
-1.67 (325) |
| Holy Cross |
PL*# |
14-19 |
NCAA – 16 |
-1.21 (271) |
To see how the DII bracketology compares to other bracketologists see: The Bracket Project
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Bracketology – 2016 NIT Tournament Predictions
For the hardcore college basketball fan, we have now introduced bracketology for the NIT tournament (otherwise known as NITology). The NIT takes the next 32 best teams that did not make the NCAA tournament.
All regular season champions that did not win their conference tournament automatically qualify for the National Invitation Tournament (NIT). It is important to note that early predictions will be flawed because of this rule. Typically, there are about seven to nine teams that win their conference in the regular season but don’t win their conference tournament and end up in the NIT. So, in early predictions, if your team is a seven or eight seed, then it is likely they won’t make the tournament because of these auto qualifiers.
* denotes that the team gets an automatic bid due to winning their conference in the regular season.
| Seed |
Team |
Conf |
Record |
Bracket Seed |
SOS (Rank) |
| 1 Seeds |
Temple |
AAC* |
21-11 |
NCAA – 10 |
1.312 (69) |
| St Bonaventure |
A10 |
22-8 |
NIT – 1 |
0.630 (98) |
| G Washington |
A10 |
23-10 |
NIT – 4 |
0.857 (90) |
| Syracuse |
ACC |
19-13 |
NCAA – 10 |
1.952 (27) |
| 2 Seeds |
Florida |
SEC |
19-14 |
NIT – 2 |
2.126 (19) |
| Tulsa |
AAC |
20-11 |
NCAA – 11 |
1.154 (74) |
| Valparaiso |
HL* |
26-6 |
NIT – 1 |
-0.42 (170) |
| Houston |
AAC |
22-9 |
NIT – 5 |
0.267 (114) |
| 3 Seeds |
Florida St |
ACC |
19-13 |
NIT – 4 |
1.757 (40) |
| Creighton |
BE |
18-14 |
NIT – 4 |
1.511 (61) |
| Georgia Tech |
ACC |
19-14 |
NIT – 4 |
2.150 (17) |
| Virginia Tech |
ACC |
19-14 |
NIT – 3 |
1.616 (49) |
| 4 Seeds |
Hofstra |
CAA* |
24-9 |
NIT – 6 |
0.295 (110) |
| Georgia |
SEC |
19-13 |
NIT – 3 |
1.903 (33) |
| Washington |
P12 |
18-14 |
NIT – 3 |
1.939 (28) |
| Clemson |
ACC |
17-14 |
Out |
1.462 (63) |
| 5 Seeds |
LSU |
SEC |
19-14 |
Out |
1.537 (57) |
| Ohio St |
B10 |
19-13 |
NIT – 3 |
1.408 (67) |
| BYU |
WCC |
23-10 |
NIT – 2 |
0.072 (127) |
| Princeton |
Ivy |
22-6 |
NIT – 6 |
-0.51 (190) |
| 6 Seeds |
Mississippi |
SEC |
20-12 |
Out |
1.052 (80) |
| Monmouth NJ |
MAAC* |
27-7 |
NIT – 1 |
-0.25 (155) |
| Akron |
MAC* |
26-8 |
Out |
-0.24 (153) |
| UAB |
CUSA* |
26-6 |
NIT – 7 |
-0.97 (246) |
| 7 Seeds |
IPFW |
SL* |
24-9 |
NIT – 7 |
-0.43 (172) |
| New Mexico St |
WAC* |
23-10 |
NIT – 7 |
-1.20 (269) |
| Belmont |
OVC* |
20-10 |
NIT – 6 |
-0.60 (202) |
| High Point |
BSo* |
21-10 |
NIT – 8 |
-1.26 (275) |
| 8 Seeds |
North Florida |
ASC* |
22-11 |
NIT – 7 |
-1.37 (296) |
| Bucknell |
PL* |
17-13 |
NIT – 8 |
-1.23 (273) |
| TX Southern |
SWAC* |
18-14 |
NIT – 8 |
-1.37 (294) |
| Wagner |
NEC* |
22-10 |
NIT – 8 |
-2.13 (345) |
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