Bracketology
NCAA Basketball Bracketology
Welcome to the Donchess Inference Index Bracketology page! Here, we will be updating our bracketology predictions as we get closer to March Madness. To come up with our bracketology predictions, we used the NCAA college basketball DII ratings as a base seeding of the teams and used a formula adding strength of schedule (SOS) to come up with the Bracket Rating. As is customary with the NCAA tournament, we also include the automatic qualifiers which are the champions from the conference tournaments. If the conference champion hasn’t yet been determined, then the highest rated team is predicted to be the champion. The DII takes into account a variety of key indicators that are very good predictors of which teams will make the final tournament.
Note that below there are 68 teams that make the NCAA tournament, and the winners of each conference are automatically included in the tournament. Because there are four play-in games, there are 2 seed groups that will have more than 4 teams.
* denotes that the team gets an automatic bid due to winning their conference.
# denotes first round play-in game
Updated on 1/25/2015.
Bracketology – NCAA Tournament – On the Bubble Teams
| Last Four In |
Last Four Out |
Next Four Out |
Dayton
Davidson
Seton Hall
Texas A&M
|
BYU
Kansas St
Minnesota
South Carolina
|
G Washington
Illinois
Connecticut
Colorado St
|
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Bracketology – 2015 NCAA Tournament Predictions
| Seed |
Team |
Conf |
Record |
Bracket Rating |
SOS (Rank) |
| 1 Seeds |
Kentucky |
SEC* |
19-0 |
6.408 |
1.348 (6) |
| Virginia |
ACC* |
18-0 |
6.294 |
1.087 (22) |
| Gonzaga |
WCC* |
20-1 |
5.118 |
0.580 (73) |
| Arizona |
P12* |
18-2 |
4.785 |
1.140 (18) |
| 2 Seeds |
Wisconsin |
B10* |
18-2 |
4.576 |
1.008 (30) |
| Villanova |
BE* |
17-2 |
4.477 |
1.041 (27) |
| Duke |
ACC |
16-2 |
4.386 |
0.997 (32) |
| Kansas |
B12* |
16-3 |
4.252 |
2.118 (1) |
| 3 Seeds |
Louisville |
ACC |
15-3 |
4.161 |
0.889 (41) |
| North Carolina |
ACC |
16-4 |
4.133 |
1.504 (3) |
| Utah |
P12 |
15-3 |
4.025 |
0.594 (71) |
| VA Commonwealth |
A10* |
16-3 |
3.875 |
1.265 (10) |
| 4 Seeds |
Notre Dame |
ACC |
18-2 |
3.859 |
0.019 (119) |
| Wichita St |
MVC* |
17-2 |
3.807 |
0.372 (87) |
| Iowa St |
B12 |
14-4 |
3.664 |
1.004 (31) |
| Maryland |
B10 |
17-3 |
3.649 |
0.914 (38) |
| 5 Seeds |
Baylor |
B12 |
15-4 |
3.642 |
0.968 (34) |
| West Virginia |
B12 |
16-3 |
3.625 |
0.825 (49) |
| Oklahoma |
B12 |
12-7 |
3.566 |
1.606 (2) |
| Georgetown |
BE |
14-5 |
3.485 |
1.479 (4) |
| 6 Seeds |
Texas |
B12 |
14-5 |
3.409 |
1.151 (17) |
| Ohio St |
B10 |
15-5 |
3.213 |
0.629 (69) |
| Butler |
BE |
14-6 |
3.157 |
1.238 (13) |
| SMU |
AAC* |
16-4 |
3.155 |
0.440 (84) |
| 7 Seeds |
Xavier |
BE |
13-7 |
3.127 |
1.312 (8) |
| Michigan St |
B10 |
13-7 |
3.106 |
1.109 (21) |
| Georgia |
SEC |
13-5 |
3.069 |
1.201 (14) |
| Northern Iowa |
MVC |
17-2 |
3.020 |
0.127 (109) |
| 8 Seeds |
Indiana |
B10 |
15-4 |
3.005 |
0.708 (59) |
| Arkansas |
SEC |
15-4 |
3.003 |
0.757 (56) |
| Oklahoma St |
B12 |
13-6 |
2.992 |
0.900 (40) |
| Stanford |
P12 |
14-5 |
2.979 |
0.889 (43) |
| 9 Seeds |
St John’s |
BE |
13-5 |
2.870 |
0.706 (60) |
| Cincinnati |
AAC |
13-5 |
2.811 |
0.909 (39) |
| Alabama |
SEC |
13-6 |
2.784 |
0.803 (50) |
| NC State |
ACC |
13-7 |
2.782 |
1.374 (5) |
| 10 Seeds |
San Diego St |
MWC* |
15-5 |
2.757 |
0.581 (72) |
| Iowa |
B10 |
13-7 |
2.748 |
1.053 (23) |
| LSU |
SEC |
15-4 |
2.691 |
0.557 (76) |
| Providence |
BE |
15-5 |
2.684 |
1.283 (9) |
| 11 Seeds |
Miami FL |
ACC |
14-5 |
2.672 |
1.033 (28) |
| Florida |
SEC |
10-9 |
2.605 |
1.259 (11) |
| Mississippi |
SEC |
12-7 |
2.591 |
1.136 (19) |
| Texas A&M |
SEC# |
13-5 |
2.550 |
0.950 (35) |
Seton Hall |
BE# |
13-5 |
2.548 |
0.867 (44) |
| 12 Seeds |
Davidson |
A10# |
14-4 |
2.531 |
0.158 (104) |
| Dayton |
A10# |
16-3 |
2.464 |
0.384 (86) |
| SF Austin |
SLC* |
16-3 |
2.325 |
-1.18 (311) |
| WI Green Bay |
HL* |
17-4 |
1.883 |
-0.56 (203) |
Old Dominion |
CUSA* |
15-4 |
1.645 |
0.185 (100) |
| 13 Seeds |
Murray St |
OVC* |
17-4 |
1.578 |
-0.94 (275) |
| Long Beach St |
BWC* |
10-11 |
1.421 |
0.850 (47) |
| Iona |
MAAC* |
14-6 |
1.283 |
-0.07 (130) |
| Bowling Green |
MAC* |
12-5 |
1.278 |
-0.19 (141) |
| 14 Seeds |
Wofford |
SC* |
15-5 |
1.266 |
-0.27 (153) |
| Harvard |
Ivy* |
11-5 |
1.120 |
-0.42 (176) |
| Georgia St |
SBC* |
13-7 |
1.023 |
-0.48 (191) |
| E Washington |
BSC* |
15-5 |
0.902 |
-0.94 (274) |
| 15 Seeds |
NC Central |
MEAC* |
15-5 |
0.781 |
-1.27 (322) |
| William & Mary |
CAA* |
12-7 |
0.746 |
-0.61 (216) |
| New Mexico St |
WAC* |
12-10 |
0.636 |
-0.45 (186) |
| High Point |
BSo* |
16-5 |
0.609 |
-1.04 (290) |
| 16 Seeds |
S Dakota St |
SL* |
15-7 |
0.601 |
-0.89 (264) |
| Stony Brook |
AEC* |
13-8 |
0.423 |
-0.59 (212) |
| FL Gulf Coast |
ASC*# |
14-7 |
0.233 |
-1.05 (291) |
| TX Southern |
SWAC*# |
8-11 |
0.141 |
0.283 (94) |
St Francis NY |
NEC*# |
12-9 |
-0.08 |
-0.92 (268) |
| American Univ |
PL*# |
11-8 |
-0.10 |
-0.33 (165) |
To see how the DII bracketology compares to other bracketologists see: The Bracket Project
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Bracketology – 2015 NIT Tournament Predictions
For the hardcore college basketball fan, we have now introduced bracketology for the NIT tournament (otherwise known as NITology). The NIT takes the next 32 best teams that did not make the NCAA tournament.
All regular season champions that did not win their conference tournament automatically qualify for the National Invitation Tournament (NIT).
* denotes that the team gets an automatic bid due to winning their conference in the regular season.
| Seed |
Team |
Conf |
Record |
Bracket Rating |
SOS (Rank) |
| 1 Seeds |
BYU |
WCC |
15-7 |
2.314 |
0.338 (90) |
| Kansas St |
B12 |
12-8 |
2.293 |
1.152 (16) |
| Minnesota |
B10 |
13-8 |
2.260 |
0.472 (82) |
| South Carolina |
SEC |
10-8 |
2.251 |
0.865 (45) |
| 2 Seeds |
G Washington |
A10 |
16-4 |
2.247 |
0.085 (112) |
| Illinois |
B10 |
13-8 |
2.229 |
0.793 (52) |
| Connecticut |
AAC |
10-7 |
2.223 |
0.800 (51) |
| Colorado St |
MWC |
19-2 |
2.216 |
-0.19 (142) |
| 3 Seeds |
Tennessee |
SEC |
12-6 |
2.195 |
1.110 (20) |
| Tulsa |
AAC |
14-5 |
2.170 |
0.400 (85) |
| St Mary’s CA |
WCC |
16-4 |
2.152 |
0.246 (98) |
| Wyoming |
MWC |
17-3 |
2.124 |
-0.92 (273) |
| 4 Seeds |
Purdue |
B10 |
12-8 |
2.094 |
0.856 (46) |
| Washington |
P12 |
14-4 |
2.092 |
0.252 (96) |
| UCLA |
P12 |
11-9 |
2.084 |
1.330 (7) |
| Oregon |
P12 |
14-6 |
2.071 |
0.519 (78) |
| 5 Seeds |
Colorado |
P12 |
10-9 |
2.069 |
1.041 (26) |
| TCU |
B12 |
14-5 |
2.067 |
-0.31 (160) |
| Syracuse |
ACC |
14-6 |
2.027 |
0.576 (74) |
| Arizona St |
P12 |
10-10 |
1.973 |
1.022 (29) |
| 6 Seeds |
Temple |
AAC |
13-7 |
1.895 |
0.769 (55) |
| Michigan |
B10 |
12-8 |
1.851 |
0.791 (53) |
| Richmond |
A10 |
10-9 |
1.823 |
0.826 (48) |
| Nebraska |
B10 |
12-7 |
1.797 |
0.670 (63) |
| 7 Seeds |
Memphis |
AAC |
12-7 |
1.719 |
0.646 (66) |
| Oregon St |
P12 |
14-5 |
1.718 |
-0.02 (124) |
| Rhode Island |
A10 |
12-5 |
1.714 |
0.011 (120) |
| Pittsburgh |
ACC |
13-6 |
1.707 |
0.315 (92) |
| 8 Seeds |
Marquette |
BE |
10-9 |
1.671 |
1.044 (25) |
| Vanderbilt |
SEC |
11-8 |
1.656 |
0.480 (80) |
| Boise St |
MWC |
14-6 |
1.610 |
-0.35 (167) |
| Valparaiso |
HL |
18-4 |
1.554 |
-1.15 (304) |
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