Bracketology
NCAA Basketball Bracketology
Welcome to the Donchess Inference Index Bracketology page! Here, we will be updating our bracketology predictions as we get closer to March Madness. To come up with our bracketology predictions, we used the NCAA college basketball DII ratings as a base seeding of the teams and used a formula adding strength of schedule (SOS) to come up with the Bracket Rating. As is customary with the NCAA tournament, we also include the automatic qualifiers which are the champions from the conference tournaments. If the conference champion hasn’t yet been determined, then the highest rated team is predicted to be the champion. The DII takes into account a variety of key indicators that are very good predictors of which teams will make the final tournament.
Note that below there are 68 teams that make the NCAA tournament, and the winners of each conference are automatically included in the tournament. Because there are four play-in games, there are 2 seed groups that will have more than 4 teams.
Schools that are ineligible for the NCAA tournament this season include Arkansas-Pine Bluff, Connecticut, Jacksonville State, Mississippi Valley State, UNC-Wilmington, Texas A&M-Corpus Christi, Toledo, Towson and UC Riverside.
* denotes that the team gets an automatic bid due to winning their conference.
# denotes first round play-in game
Updated on 3/17/2013 @ 5:27pm ET – Final.
Bracketology – NCAA Tournament – On the Bubble Teams
| Last Four In |
Last Four Out |
Next Four Out |
Villanova
Boise St
Iowa
La Salle
|
Kentucky
Middle Tenn St
Tennessee
Maryland
|
Massachusetts
Southern Miss
Baylor
Virginia
|
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Donchess Inference Ratings (DII) – Bracketology – NCAA Tournament Predictions
| Seed |
Team |
Conf |
Record |
Bracket Rating |
SOS (Rank) |
| 1 Seeds |
Louisville |
BE* |
29-5 |
3.649 |
1.089 (8) |
| Gonzaga |
WCC* |
31-2 |
3.550 |
0.325 (110) |
| Indiana |
B10 |
27-6 |
3.438 |
1.087 (9) |
| Ohio St |
B10* |
26-7 |
3.366 |
1.108 (6) |
| 2 Seeds |
Duke |
ACC |
27-5 |
3.352 |
1.135 (4) |
| Kansas |
B12* |
29-5 |
3.335 |
0.954 (20) |
| New Mexico |
MWC* |
29-5 |
3.318 |
1.068 (10) |
| Georgetown |
BE |
25-6 |
3.216 |
0.986 (17) |
| 3 Seeds |
Michigan St |
B10 |
25-7 |
3.153 |
1.102 (7) |
| Miami FL |
ACC* |
27-6 |
3.071 |
1.031 (15) |
| Florida |
SEC |
26-7 |
3.024 |
0.890 (31) |
| Kansas St |
B12 |
27-7 |
2.981 |
0.665 (67) |
| 4 Seeds |
Michigan |
B10 |
25-7 |
2.969 |
0.830 (44) |
| Memphis |
CUSA* |
30-4 |
2.964 |
0.353 (107) |
| St Louis |
A10* |
27-6 |
2.961 |
0.687 (62) |
| Syracuse |
BE |
26-9 |
2.945 |
1.066 (11) |
| 5 Seeds |
Wisconsin |
B10 |
23-10 |
2.912 |
1.180 (3) |
| Arizona |
P12 |
25-7 |
2.844 |
0.918 (24) |
| Marquette |
BE |
23-8 |
2.788 |
1.047 (14) |
| Butler |
A10 |
26-8 |
2.737 |
0.736 (56) |
| 6 Seeds |
Oklahoma St |
B12 |
24-8 |
2.731 |
0.866 (37) |
| VA Commonwealth |
A10 |
26-8 |
2.727 |
0.664 (68) |
| Notre Dame |
BE |
25-9 |
2.711 |
0.833 (43) |
| Pittsburgh |
BE |
24-8 |
2.707 |
0.682 (64) |
| 7 Seeds |
UNLV |
MWC |
26-9 |
2.696 |
0.850 (39) |
| Creighton |
MVC* |
27-7 |
2.688 |
0.598 (78) |
| North Carolina |
ACC |
24-10 |
2.623 |
0.919 (23) |
| UCLA |
P12 |
26-9 |
2.607 |
0.877 (33) |
| 8 Seeds |
Colorado St |
MWC |
25-8 |
2.573 |
0.620 (75) |
| Oregon |
P12* |
26-8 |
2.535 |
0.596 (79) |
| NC State |
ACC |
24-10 |
2.454 |
0.869 (36) |
| St Mary’s CA |
WCC |
27-6 |
2.448 |
0.233 (115) |
| 9 Seeds |
Missouri |
SEC |
23-10 |
2.393 |
0.716 (59) |
| Cincinnati |
BE |
22-11 |
2.389 |
0.906 (28) |
| San Diego St |
MWC |
22-10 |
2.386 |
0.781 (48) |
| Illinois |
B10 |
22-12 |
2.364 |
1.049 (13) |
| 10 Seeds |
Minnesota |
B10 |
20-12 |
2.349 |
1.266 (1) |
| Mississippi |
SEC* |
26-8 |
2.287 |
0.417 (104) |
| Wichita St |
MVC |
26-8 |
2.286 |
0.497 (99) |
| Iowa St |
B12 |
22-11 |
2.271 |
0.767 (51) |
| 11 Seeds |
Temple |
A10 |
23-9 |
2.233 |
0.649 (70) |
| Colorado |
P12 |
21-11 |
2.222 |
0.968 (19) |
| Oklahoma |
B12 |
20-11 |
2.202 |
0.929 (22) |
| California |
P12 |
20-11 |
2.160 |
0.911 (26) |
| 12 Seeds |
La Salle |
A10# |
21-9 |
2.154 |
0.595 (80) |
| Iowa |
B10# |
21-12 |
2.124 |
0.699 (61) |
| Boise St |
MWC# |
21-11 |
2.116 |
0.637 (71) |
| Villanova |
BE# |
20-13 |
2.078 |
0.918 (25) |
Belmont |
OVC* |
26-6 |
1.913 |
-0.12 (153) |
| Bucknell |
PL* |
28-5 |
1.755 |
-0.40 (225) |
| 13 Seeds |
Akron |
MAC* |
26-7 |
1.688 |
-0.09 (146) |
| Valparaiso |
HL* |
26-7 |
1.646 |
-0.19 (171) |
| New Mexico St |
WAC* |
24-10 |
1.486 |
0.050 (127) |
| Davidson |
SC* |
26-7 |
1.434 |
-0.51 (255) |
| 14 Seeds |
Montana |
BSC* |
25-6 |
1.207 |
-0.89 (314) |
| S Dakota St |
SL* |
25-9 |
1.072 |
-0.57 (268) |
| Pacific |
BWC* |
22-12 |
1.038 |
-0.06 (141) |
| Northwestern LA |
SLC* |
23-8 |
0.998 |
-0.77 (295) |
| 15 Seeds |
Harvard |
Ivy* |
19-9 |
0.979 |
-0.16 (166) |
| Iona |
MAAC* |
20-13 |
0.867 |
0.046 (128) |
| FL Gulf Coast |
ASC* |
24-10 |
0.828 |
-0.57 (270) |
| Albany NY |
AEC* |
24-10 |
0.811 |
-0.57 (266) |
| 16 Seeds |
W Kentucky |
SBC* |
20-15 |
0.505 |
-0.20 (173) |
| Long Island |
NEC* |
20-12 |
0.409 |
-0.57 (267) |
| James Madison |
CAA*# |
20-14 |
0.305 |
-0.47 (244) |
| Southern Univ |
SWAC*# |
23-9 |
0.217 |
-1.45 (347) |
NC A&T |
MEAC*# |
19-16 |
-0.28 |
-0.93 (321) |
| Liberty |
BSo*# |
15-20 |
-0.90 |
-0.98 (326) |
To see how the DII bracketology compares to other bracketologists see: The Bracket Project
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Donchess Inference Ratings (DII) – Bracketology – NIT Tournament Predictions
For the hardcore college basketball fan, we have now introduced bracketology for the NIT tournament (otherwise known as NITology). The NIT takes the next 32 best teams that did not make the NCAA tournament.
All regular season champions that did not win their conference tournament automatically qualify for the National Invitation Tournament (NIT).
* denotes that the team gets an automatic bid due to winning their conference in the regular season.
| Seed |
Team |
Conf |
Record |
Bracket Rating |
SOS (Rank) |
| 1 Seeds |
Kentucky |
SEC |
21-11 |
2.069 |
0.735 (57) |
| Middle Tenn St |
SBC* |
28-5 |
2.031 |
-0.08 (144) |
| Tennessee |
SEC |
20-12 |
2.023 |
0.747 (53) |
| Maryland |
ACC |
22-12 |
1.966 |
0.535 (92) |
| 2 Seeds |
Massachusetts |
A10 |
21-11 |
1.965 |
0.652 (69) |
| Southern Miss |
CUSA |
25-9 |
1.885 |
0.136 (120) |
| Baylor |
B12 |
18-14 |
1.816 |
0.822 (46) |
| Virginia |
ACC |
21-11 |
1.799 |
0.458 (102) |
| 3 Seeds |
Alabama |
SEC |
21-12 |
1.798 |
0.578 (84) |
| Stanford |
P12 |
18-14 |
1.797 |
0.876 (34) |
| Arkansas |
SEC |
19-13 |
1.736 |
0.586 (82) |
| Arizona St |
P12 |
21-12 |
1.714 |
0.531 (93) |
| 4 Seeds |
Air Force |
MWC |
18-13 |
1.681 |
0.515 (96) |
| Charlotte |
A10 |
21-11 |
1.640 |
0.390 (106) |
| Washington |
P12 |
18-15 |
1.629 |
0.886 (32) |
| Providence |
BE |
17-14 |
1.617 |
0.844 (40) |
| 5 Seeds |
St Joseph’s PA |
A10 |
18-13 |
1.615 |
0.572 (86) |
| SF Austin |
SLC* |
27-4 |
1.608 |
-1.03 (331) |
| LSU |
SEC |
19-12 |
1.582 |
0.500 (97) |
| Xavier |
A10 |
17-14 |
1.562 |
0.773 (50) |
| 6 Seeds |
Florida St |
ACC |
18-15 |
1.561 |
0.857 (38) |
| Northern Iowa |
MVC |
18-14 |
1.524 |
0.636 (72) |
| Louisiana Tech |
WAC* |
26-6 |
1.522 |
-0.35 (214) |
| Wyoming |
MWC |
19-14 |
1.519 |
0.577 (85) |
| 7 Seeds |
Stony Brook |
AEC* |
23-7 |
1.199 |
-0.62 (276) |
| Long Beach St |
BWC* |
19-13 |
0.805 |
0.002 (132) |
| Robert Morris |
NEC* |
23-10 |
0.774 |
-0.52 (256) |
| Niagara |
MAAC* |
19-13 |
0.697 |
-0.06 (139) |
| 8 Seeds |
Mercer |
ASC* |
23-11 |
0.587 |
-0.69 (283) |
| Northeastern |
CAA* |
20-12 |
0.513 |
-0.32 (203) |
| Norfolk St |
MEAC* |
21-11 |
0.195 |
-0.90 (316) |
| High Point |
BSo* |
17-13 |
-0.45 |
-1.12 (340) |
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