Bracketology


Welcome to the Donchess Inference Index Bracketology page! Here, we will be updating our bracketology predictions as we get closer to March Madness. To come up with our bracketology predictions, we used the NCAA college basketball DII ratings as a base seeding of the teams and used a formula adding strength of schedule (SOS) to come up with the Bracket Rating. As is customary with the NCAA tournament, we also include the automatic qualifiers which are the champions from the conference tournaments. If the conference champion hasn’t yet been determined, then the highest rated team is predicted to be the champion. The DII takes into account a variety of key indicators that are very good predictors of which teams will make the final tournament.

Note that below there are 68 teams that make the NCAA tournament, and the winners of each conference are automatically included in the tournament. Because there are four play-in games, there are 2 seed groups that will have more than 4 teams.

Early in the season (pre-January) a lot of the teams may appear to have some strange seedings. Before teams get into conference play, there is a lot of projection that needs to be done to seed the teams. Once January and February comes along the projections are slowly worked out of the equation and only actual results are used.

* denotes that the team gets an automatic bid due to winning their conference.
# denotes first round play-in game

Updated on 2/20/2017 @ 9:09am ET.

Bracketology – NCAA Tournament – On the Bubble Teams

Last Four In First Four Out Next Four Out
Wake Forest
Tennessee
Seton Hall
Marquette
TCU
Rhode Island
Georgia Tech
Clemson
Texas Tech
Syracuse
Georgia
Pittsburgh


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Bracketology – 2017 NCAA Tournament Predictions

Seed Team Conf Record Bracket Rating SOS (Rank)
1 Seeds
Kansas
B12*
24-3
14.47
1.245 (1)
Villanova
BE*
26-2
14.01
0.894 (26)
Gonzaga
WCC*
28-0
13.01
0.143 (95)
North Carolina
ACC*
22-5
11.86
0.934 (22)
2 Seeds
Louisville
ACC
22-5
11.78
1.127 (8)
Oregon
P12*
24-4
11.66
0.570 (65)
Baylor
B12
22-5
11.58
0.955 (18)
Kentucky
SEC*
22-5
11.46
0.997 (15)
3 Seeds
Florida
SEC
22-5
11.42
1.135 (6)
Arizona
P12
25-3
11.31
0.642 (57)
Duke
ACC
22-5
11.10
0.947 (20)
UCLA
P12
24-3
10.46
0.445 (75)
4 Seeds
Florida St
ACC
21-6
10.44
0.870 (27)
West Virginia
B12
21-6
10.24
0.690 (52)
Virginia
ACC
18-8
9.791
1.171 (3)
Purdue
B10*
22-5
9.716
0.712 (47)
5 Seeds
Butler
BE
21-6
9.556
0.968 (17)
Notre Dame
ACC
21-6
9.166
0.766 (41)
Cincinnati
AAC*
24-3
9.052
0.230 (88)
Wisconsin
B10
22-5
8.997
0.710 (48)
6 Seeds
Creighton
BE
22-5
8.865
0.614 (61)
SMU
AAC
24-4
8.654
0.244 (87)
St Mary’s CA
WCC
24-3
8.325
0.130 (97)
Maryland
B10
22-5
8.215
0.595 (62)
7 Seeds
Minnesota
B10
20-7
7.544
0.782 (38)
Oklahoma St
B12
18-9
7.433
0.908 (25)
Iowa St
B12
17-9
7.366
0.951 (19)
Xavier
BE
18-9
7.270
1.165 (4)
8 Seeds
VA Commonwealth
A10*
22-5
6.827
0.310 (84)
South Carolina
SEC
20-7
6.777
0.593 (63)
Wichita St
MVC*
25-4
6.774
-0.11 (132)
Virginia Tech
ACC
18-8
6.651
0.790 (37)
9 Seeds
Dayton
A10
21-5
6.603
0.184 (90)
Northwestern
B10
20-7
6.549
0.628 (58)
USC
P12
21-6
6.438
0.498 (71)
Miami FL
ACC
18-8
6.310
0.793 (35)
10 Seeds
Arkansas
SEC
20-7
5.991
0.615 (60)
Michigan St
B10
16-11
5.769
1.027 (13)
Michigan
B10
17-10
5.754
0.803 (33)
Kansas St
B12
17-10
5.710
0.848 (30)
11 Seeds
California
P12
18-8
5.543
0.567 (66)
Illinois St
MVC
23-5
5.529
-0.07 (126)
MTSU
CUSA*
24-4
5.134
-0.22 (164)
Marquette
BE#
16-10
5.101
0.750 (43)
Seton Hall
BE#
16-10
5.018
0.867 (28)
12 Seeds
Tennessee
SEC#
15-12
5.012
1.009 (14)
Wake Forest
ACC#
15-12
4.910
1.194 (2)
UNC Wilmington
CAA*
24-5
4.868
-0.23 (167)
UT Arlington
SBC*
20-6
4.435
-0.21 (158)
Nevada
MWC*
21-6
4.239
0.053 (106)
13 Seeds
Vermont
AEC*
24-5
4.034
-0.42 (220)
Monmouth NJ
MAAC*
23-5
3.909
-0.24 (170)
Belmont
OVC*
20-5
3.596
-0.19 (154)
Princeton
Ivy*
17-6
3.529
-0.27 (178)
14 Seeds
ETSU
SC*
22-6
3.518
-0.40 (213)
Akron
MAC*
22-5
3.426
-0.32 (190)
New Mexico St
WAC*
23-4
3.361
-0.83 (312)
Valparaiso
HL*
22-6
2.936
-0.39 (208)
15 Seeds
UNC Asheville
BSo*
22-7
2.879
-0.54 (247)
Bucknell
PL*
21-8
2.673
-0.21 (159)
FL Gulf Coast
ASC*
22-7
2.175
-0.58 (256)
N Dakota St
SL*
18-9
1.121
-0.46 (224)
16 Seeds
E Washington
BSC*
18-9
-0.02
-0.64 (271)
New Orleans
SLC*
16-9
-0.56
-0.74 (298)
UC Irvine
BWC*#
16-12
-0.58
-0.42 (219)
TX Southern
SWAC*#
15-11
-0.85
-0.32 (186)
NC Central
MEAC*#
20-6
-1.08
-1.43 (351)
Wagner
NEC*#
14-12
-3.87
-0.93 (325)

To see how the DII bracketology compares to other bracketologists see: The Bracket Project


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Bracketology – 2017 NIT Tournament Predictions

For the hardcore college basketball fan, we have now introduced bracketology for the NIT tournament (otherwise known as NITology). The NIT takes the next 32 best teams that did not make the NCAA tournament.

All regular season champions that did not win their conference tournament automatically qualify for the National Invitation Tournament (NIT). It is important to note that early predictions will be flawed because of this rule. Typically, there are about seven to nine teams that win their conference in the regular season but don’t win their conference tournament and end up in the NIT. So, in early predictions, if your team is a seven or eight seed, then it is likely they won’t make the tournament because of these auto qualifiers.

* denotes that the team gets an automatic bid due to winning their conference in the regular season.

Seed Team Conf Record Bracket Rating SOS (Rank)
1 Seeds
TCU
B12
17-10
4.640
0.724 (45)
Rhode Island
A10
17-9
4.244
0.380 (82)
Georgia Tech
ACC
16-11
4.221
0.620 (59)
Clemson
ACC
14-12
4.221
1.158 (5)
2 Seeds
Texas Tech
B12
17-10
4.150
0.519 (70)
Syracuse
ACC
16-12
4.085
0.830 (31)
Georgia
SEC
15-12
4.083
0.939 (21)
Pittsburgh
ACC
15-12
4.055
1.063 (10)
3 Seeds
Indiana
B10
15-12
4.026
0.703 (50)
Houston
AAC
19-8
3.993
0.020 (112)
Providence
BE
16-11
3.981
0.716 (46)
Alabama
SEC
16-10
3.959
0.653 (56)
4 Seeds
Illinois
B10
15-12
3.805
0.792 (36)
Col Charleston
CAA
21-7
3.603
0.012 (114)
Mississippi
SEC
16-11
3.427
0.770 (39)
Boise St
MWC
17-8
3.390
0.018 (113)
5 Seeds
Ohio St
B10
15-13
2.954
0.809 (32)
Utah
P12
17-10
2.777
0.039 (108)
Texas A&M
SEC
14-12
2.708
0.739 (44)
Auburn
SEC
16-11
2.602
0.797 (34)
6 Seeds
Chattanooga
SC
19-8
2.491
-0.25 (174)
San Diego St
MWC
16-10
2.437
-0.00 (115)
Memphis
AAC
18-9
2.378
-0.00 (117)
Colorado
P12
16-12
2.302
0.402 (76)
7 Seeds
Colorado St
MWC
18-9
2.276
-0.24 (169)
Winthrop
BSo
21-6
2.223
-0.61 (263)
Arkansas St
SBC
19-8
2.206
-0.18 (150)
BYU
WCC
19-10
2.189
0.041 (107)
8 Seeds
St Bonaventure
A10
16-10
2.133
0.171 (92)
CS Bakersfield
WAC
19-7
2.103
-0.69 (282)
New Mexico
MWC
16-11
2.041
0.218 (89)
Mt St Mary’s
NEC*
15-15
-5.74
-0.23 (165)

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