Bracketology
NCAA Basketball Bracketology
Welcome to the Donchess Inference Index Bracketology page! Here, we will be updating our bracketology predictions as we get closer to March Madness. To come up with our bracketology predictions, we used the NCAA college basketball DII ratings as a base seeding of the teams and used a formula adding strength of schedule (SOS) to come up with the Bracket Rating. As is customary with the NCAA tournament, we also include the automatic qualifiers which are the champions from the conference tournaments. If the conference champion hasn’t yet been determined, then the highest rated team is predicted to be the champion. The DII takes into account a variety of key indicators that are very good predictors of which teams will make the final tournament.
Note that below there are 68 teams that make the NCAA tournament, and the winners of each conference are automatically included in the tournament. Because there are four play-in games, there are 2 seed groups that will have more than 4 teams.
* denotes that the team gets an automatic bid due to winning their conference.
# denotes first round play-in game
Updated on 3/10/2014 @ 10:33 am.
Bracketology – NCAA Tournament – On the Bubble Teams
| Last Four In |
Last Four Out |
Next Four Out |
Florida St
Dayton
Providence
SMU
|
Missouri
California
Arkansas
Nebraska
|
BYU
Minnesota
Georgetown
Utah
|
Bet NCAA Basketball at Bovada – Our top-rated Sportsbook: Join Bovada
See our detailed review of Bovada here: Bovada Sportsbook Review
Bracketology – 2014 NCAA Tournament Predictions
| Seed |
Team |
Conf |
Record |
Bracket Rating |
SOS (Rank) |
| 1 Seeds |
Florida |
SEC* |
29-2 |
5.101 |
1.227 (44) |
| Wichita St |
MVC* |
33-0 |
4.777 |
0.216 (123) |
| Arizona |
P12* |
28-3 |
4.771 |
1.469 (6) |
| Villanova |
BE* |
28-3 |
4.624 |
1.369 (22) |
| 2 Seeds |
Wisconsin |
B10* |
25-5 |
4.141 |
1.609 (2) |
| Kansas |
B12* |
23-8 |
4.114 |
2.119 (1) |
| Syracuse |
ACC* |
26-4 |
4.111 |
1.142 (54) |
| Creighton |
BE |
24-6 |
4.008 |
1.447 (14) |
| 3 Seeds |
Virginia |
ACC |
25-5 |
3.954 |
1.128 (57) |
| Duke |
ACC |
24-7 |
3.792 |
1.450 (12) |
| Michigan |
B10 |
23-7 |
3.783 |
1.460 (9) |
| Louisville |
AAC* |
26-5 |
3.652 |
0.688 (88) |
| 4 Seeds |
Iowa St |
B12 |
23-7 |
3.649 |
1.556 (4) |
| San Diego St |
MWC* |
27-3 |
3.643 |
0.375 (110) |
| Cincinnati |
AAC |
26-5 |
3.625 |
0.786 (84) |
| Michigan St |
B10 |
23-7 |
3.608 |
1.398 (18) |
| 5 Seeds |
Oklahoma |
B12 |
23-8 |
3.499 |
1.489 (5) |
| North Carolina |
ACC |
23-8 |
3.400 |
1.318 (26) |
| Connecticut |
AAC |
24-7 |
3.328 |
1.006 (66) |
| Texas |
B12 |
22-9 |
3.324 |
1.396 (19) |
| 6 Seeds |
Pittsburgh |
ACC |
23-8 |
3.307 |
1.076 (62) |
| Oregon |
P12 |
22-8 |
3.297 |
1.352 (23) |
| New Mexico |
MWC |
24-6 |
3.284 |
0.820 (82) |
| UCLA |
P12 |
23-8 |
3.263 |
1.240 (42) |
| 7 Seeds |
Kentucky |
SEC |
22-9 |
3.259 |
1.432 (16) |
| Ohio St |
B10 |
22-8 |
3.241 |
1.253 (39) |
| VA Commonwealth |
A10 |
24-7 |
3.215 |
0.952 (72) |
| Massachusetts |
A10 |
23-6 |
3.210 |
1.083 (61) |
| 8 Seeds |
St Louis |
A10* |
25-5 |
3.173 |
0.582 (95) |
| Baylor |
B12 |
21-10 |
3.117 |
1.274 (36) |
| Oklahoma St |
B12 |
20-11 |
3.065 |
1.457 (10) |
| Memphis |
AAC |
23-8 |
3.048 |
0.869 (81) |
| 9 Seeds |
Colorado |
P12 |
21-10 |
2.981 |
1.441 (15) |
| Arizona St |
P12 |
21-10 |
2.979 |
1.294 (29) |
| Iowa |
B10 |
19-11 |
2.934 |
1.247 (40) |
| Tennessee |
SEC |
20-11 |
2.913 |
1.155 (51) |
| 10 Seeds |
G Washington |
A10 |
23-7 |
2.866 |
0.726 (85) |
| Gonzaga |
WCC* |
26-6 |
2.851 |
0.512 (100) |
| Kansas St |
B12 |
20-11 |
2.810 |
1.386 (20) |
| St John’s |
BE |
20-11 |
2.791 |
1.255 (38) |
| 11 Seeds |
Xavier |
BE |
20-11 |
2.790 |
1.402 (17) |
| Stanford |
P12 |
19-11 |
2.781 |
1.448 (13) |
| St Joseph’s PA |
A10 |
21-8 |
2.775 |
0.872 (80) |
| SMU |
AAC# |
23-8 |
2.729 |
0.687 (89) |
Providence |
BE# |
20-11 |
2.718 |
1.279 (33) |
| 12 Seeds |
Dayton |
A10# |
22-9 |
2.685 |
0.890 (79) |
| Florida St |
ACC# |
18-11 |
2.647 |
1.243 (41) |
| SF Austin |
SLC* |
29-2 |
2.171 |
-1.31 (331) |
| Harvard |
Ivy* |
26-4 |
2.000 |
-0.53 (209) |
Southern Miss |
CUSA* |
26-5 |
1.942 |
-0.34 (184) |
| 13 Seeds |
Toledo |
MAC* |
26-5 |
1.829 |
-0.19 (164) |
| WI Green Bay |
HL* |
24-6 |
1.688 |
-0.31 (177) |
| N Dakota St |
SL* |
23-6 |
1.548 |
-0.41 (196) |
| Manhattan |
MAAC* |
23-7 |
1.262 |
-0.32 (179) |
| 14 Seeds |
Georgia St |
SBC* |
24-7 |
1.148 |
-0.67 (236) |
| Santa Barbara |
BWC* |
21-8 |
1.130 |
-0.36 (189) |
| New Mexico St |
WAC* |
23-9 |
1.128 |
-0.36 (188) |
| Delaware |
CAA* |
23-9 |
0.977 |
-0.39 (194) |
| 15 Seeds |
Mercer |
ASC* |
23-7 |
0.935 |
-0.87 (274) |
| NC Central |
MEAC* |
25-5 |
0.881 |
-1.55 (347) |
| Boston Univ |
PL* |
24-9 |
0.809 |
-0.47 (204) |
| E Kentucky |
OVC* |
24-9 |
0.675 |
-0.87 (273) |
| 16 Seeds |
Vermont |
AEC* |
22-9 |
0.532 |
-0.98 (290) |
| Davidson |
SC* |
20-11 |
0.388 |
-0.57 (218) |
| Robert Morris |
NEC*# |
21-12 |
0.162 |
-0.63 (229) |
| Weber St |
BSC*# |
17-11 |
-0.20 |
-0.92 (283) |
Coastal Car |
BSo*# |
20-12 |
-0.64 |
-1.36 (339) |
| Alabama St |
SWAC*# |
18-11 |
-1.16 |
-1.82 (350) |
To see how the DII bracketology compares to other bracketologists see: The Bracket Project
Bet NCAA Basketball at 5Dimes- Our #2 rated Sportsbook: Join 5Dimes
See our detailed review of 5Dimes here: 5Dimes Sportsbook Review
Bracketology – 2014 NIT Tournament Predictions
For the hardcore college basketball fan, we have now introduced bracketology for the NIT tournament (otherwise known as NITology). The NIT takes the next 32 best teams that did not make the NCAA tournament.
All regular season champions that did not win their conference tournament automatically qualify for the National Invitation Tournament (NIT).
* denotes that the team gets an automatic bid due to winning their conference in the regular season.
| Seed |
Team |
Conf |
Record |
Bracket Rating |
SOS (Rank) |
| 1 Seeds |
Missouri |
SEC |
21-10 |
2.635 |
1.103 (59) |
| California |
P12 |
19-12 |
2.624 |
1.344 (24) |
| Arkansas |
SEC |
21-10 |
2.610 |
0.943 (74) |
| Nebraska |
B10 |
18-11 |
2.573 |
1.291 (30) |
| 2 Seeds |
BYU |
WCC |
21-10 |
2.521 |
0.971 (68) |
| Minnesota |
B10 |
18-12 |
2.499 |
1.279 (32) |
| Georgetown |
BE |
17-13 |
2.482 |
1.559 (3) |
| Utah |
P12 |
20-10 |
2.462 |
0.647 (91) |
| 3 Seeds |
Clemson |
ACC |
19-11 |
2.400 |
0.900 (77) |
| Illinois |
B10 |
18-13 |
2.372 |
1.306 (28) |
| West Virginia |
B12 |
17-14 |
2.355 |
1.343 (25) |
| NC State |
ACC |
18-12 |
2.321 |
1.169 (50) |
| 4 Seeds |
Marquette |
BE |
17-14 |
2.304 |
1.277 (35) |
| LSU |
SEC |
18-12 |
2.269 |
1.133 (55) |
| Indiana |
B10 |
17-14 |
2.204 |
1.229 (43) |
| Georgia |
SEC |
18-12 |
2.094 |
0.940 (75) |
| 5 Seeds |
Maryland |
ACC |
16-14 |
2.069 |
1.286 (31) |
| Washington |
P12 |
17-14 |
1.996 |
1.178 (48) |
| Mississippi |
SEC |
18-13 |
1.968 |
0.966 (69) |
| Richmond |
A10 |
18-13 |
1.858 |
0.911 (76) |
| 6 Seeds |
Texas Tech |
B12 |
14-17 |
1.824 |
1.465 (8) |
| Purdue |
B10 |
15-14 |
1.815 |
1.150 (53) |
| Oregon St |
P12 |
16-14 |
1.801 |
1.130 (56) |
| Penn St |
B10 |
15-15 |
1.793 |
1.192 (45) |
| 7 Seeds |
Wake Forest |
ACC |
16-15 |
1.781 |
1.088 (60) |
| St Mary’s CA |
WCC |
22-10 |
1.777 |
0.440 (106) |
| Louisiana Tech |
CUSA |
25-6 |
1.734 |
-0.42 (199) |
| Iona |
MAAC* |
21-9 |
1.126 |
-0.08 (145) |
| 8 Seeds |
Belmont |
OVC* |
24-9 |
1.094 |
-0.35 (186) |
| Utah Valley |
WAC* |
18-9 |
0.312 |
-0.58 (220) |
| FL Gulf Coast |
ASC* |
22-11 |
0.035 |
-1.06 (299) |
| High Point |
BSo* |
16-14 |
-0.86 |
-0.99 (291) |
Bet NCAA Basketball at WagerWeb – Our #3 rated Sportsbook: Join WagerWeb
See our detailed review of WagerWeb here: WagerWeb Sportsbook Review
