Bracketology


Welcome to our Bracketology page! Here we plan to prep you for everything that will take place during March Madness! To come up with our bracketology predictions, we use a combination of variables including our own NCAA college basketball ratings, RPI, strength of schedule (SOS), and few other factors to come up with the Bracket Rating. As is customary with the NCAA tournament, we also include the automatic qualifiers which are the champions from the conference tournaments. If the conference champion hasn’t yet been determined, then the highest rated team is predicted to be the champion. All of the factors that we use are key indicators that are very good predictors of which teams will make the final tournament.

Note that below there are 68 teams that make the NCAA tournament, and the winners of each conference are automatically included in the tournament. Because there are four play-in games, there are 2 seed groups that will have more than 4 teams.

Early in the season (pre-January) a lot of the teams may appear to have some strange seedings. Before teams get into conference play, there is a lot of projection that needs to be done to seed the teams. As we get into January and February, the projections are slowly worked out of the equation and only actual results are used.

* denotes that the team gets an automatic bid due to winning their conference.
# denotes first round play-in game

Updated on 12/15/2017.

Bracketology – NCAA Tournament – Bubble Teams

Last Four In First Four Out Next Four Out
Auburn
Boise St
Oklahoma
Utah
St Mary’s CA
San Diego St
UCLA
Providence
Colorado
NC State
Maryland
Mississippi St


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Bracketology – 2018 NCAA Tournament Seeding Predictions

Projected Seed Team Conf Record Bracket Rating SOS (Rank)
1 Seeds
Duke
ACC*
11-1
16.15
0.777 (15)
Michigan St
B10*
9-1
15.19
0.766 (16)
Villanova
BE*
11-0
13.09
0.535 (35)
Texas A&M
SEC*
9-1
12.89
0.457 (48)
2 Seeds
North Carolina
ACC
9-1
12.54
0.787 (14)
Missouri
SEC
8-2
11.59
0.183 (91)
Kansas
B12*
7-2
11.47
0.675 (23)
Kentucky
SEC
8-1
11.27
-0.16 (171)
3 Seeds
Arizona St
P12*
9-0
10.78
0.498 (39)
TCU
B12
10-0
10.38
0.197 (89)
Arkansas
SEC
7-2
9.809
0.903 (10)
Wichita St
MVC*
8-1
9.802
0.441 (50)
4 Seeds
Xavier
BE
9-1
9.710
0.386 (60)
Virginia
ACC
8-1
9.686
0.508 (37)
Tennessee
SEC
7-1
9.635
0.660 (26)
Temple
AAC*
6-3
9.294
1.118 (3)
5 Seeds
Nevada
MWC*
8-2
9.071
0.577 (30)
West Virginia
B12
9-1
9.007
0.424 (54)
Alabama
SEC
7-3
8.941
0.582 (28)
Seton Hall
BE
9-1
8.842
0.294 (72)
6 Seeds
Purdue
B10
10-2
8.562
0.409 (56)
Florida St
ACC
9-0
8.561
-0.42 (227)
Rhode Island
A10*
5-3
8.448
0.968 (5)
Miami FL
ACC
8-0
7.536
-0.72 (282)
7 Seeds
Notre Dame
ACC
8-2
7.370
-0.08 (150)
Syracuse
ACC
8-1
7.288
0.140 (99)
Northern Iowa
MVC
8-2
7.252
0.044 (120)
Arizona
P12
7-3
7.165
0.904 (9)
8 Seeds
MTSU
CUSA*
7-1
7.133
0.070 (112)
Gonzaga
WCC*
8-2
6.952
0.673 (25)
USC
P12
5-3
6.947
0.592 (27)
Louisville
ACC
7-2
6.623
-0.23 (191)
9 Seeds
Creighton
BE
7-2
6.565
0.227 (83)
Minnesota
B10
9-3
6.543
0.123 (102)
Texas Tech
B12
8-1
6.517
-0.25 (196)
Florida
SEC
6-3
6.511
0.714 (19)
10 Seeds
Iowa St
B12
7-2
6.397
-0.01 (127)
Texas
B12
6-3
6.386
0.400 (57)
Michigan
B10
9-3
6.312
0.427 (52)
Baylor
B12
8-2
6.237
-0.08 (146)
11 Seeds
UNLV
MWC
8-2
6.105
-0.16 (168)
St John’s
BE
8-2
6.071
0.163 (95)
Butler
BE
8-2
6.019
0.228 (82)
Clemson
ACC
8-1
5.980
-0.17 (172)
12 Seeds
Utah
P12#
7-2
5.968
0.324 (70)
Oklahoma
B12#
7-1
5.788
0.170 (94)
Boise St
MWC#
9-1
5.736
-0.13 (160)
Auburn
SEC#
8-1
5.668
-0.42 (228)
Vermont
AEC*
7-4
5.242
0.226 (84)
UT Arlington
SBC*
7-3
4.084
-0.17 (173)
13 Seeds
S Dakota St
SL*
9-4
3.989
-0.46 (233)
Towson
CAA*
8-1
3.920
-0.20 (180)
Santa Barbara
BWC*
8-2
3.897
0.161 (96)
Lipscomb
ASC*
7-4
3.227
0.138 (100)
14 Seeds
Valparaiso
HL*
7-3
3.042
-0.34 (215)
Murray St
OVC*
6-2
2.881
-1.03 (327)
Buffalo
MAC*
6-3
2.873
-0.15 (164)
Utah Valley
WAC*
7-4
2.630
-0.23 (192)
15 Seeds
Wagner
NEC*
7-1
2.396
-1.07 (330)
Mercer
SC*
6-4
2.083
-0.56 (261)
Portland St
BSC*
7-3
1.965
0.160 (97)
Penn
Ivy*
8-4
1.222
-0.21 (185)
16 Seeds
Iona
MAAC*
5-4
0.602
0.103 (105)
SF Austin
SLC*
9-1
0.507
-1.70 (349)
Navy
PL*#
9-4
0.424
-0.44 (232)
Liberty
BSo*#
7-3
-0.01
-1.08 (331)
Prairie View
SWAC*#
2-8
-2.87
1.258 (2)
NC A&T
MEAC*#
5-5
-3.99
-0.75 (287)

To see how our brackets compare to other bracketologists see: The Bracket Project


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Bracketology – 2018 NIT Tournament Bracket Predictions

For the hardcore college basketball fan, we have now introduced bracketology for the NIT tournament (otherwise known as NITology). The NIT takes the next 32 best teams that did not make the NCAA tournament.

All regular season champions that did not win their conference tournament automatically qualify for the National Invitation Tournament (NIT). It is important to note that early predictions will be flawed because of this rule. Typically, there are about seven to nine teams that win their conference in the regular season but don’t win their conference tournament and end up in the NIT. So, in early predictions, if your team is a seven or eight seed, then it is likely they won’t make the tournament because of these auto qualifiers.

* denotes that the team gets an automatic bid due to winning their conference in the regular season.

Seed Team Conf Record Bracket Rating SOS (Rank)
1 Seeds
St Mary’s CA
WCC
8-2
5.601
-0.22 (187)
San Diego St
MWC
7-3
5.561
-0.16 (170)
UCLA
P12
7-2
5.504
-0.05 (135)
Providence
BE
7-3
5.369
0.360 (62)
2 Seeds
Colorado
P12
7-3
5.188
-0.05 (136)
NC State
ACC
8-2
5.051
-0.34 (216)
Maryland
B10
9-3
4.645
0.030 (122)
Mississippi St
SEC
8-1
4.587
-1.07 (329)
3 Seeds
Ohio St
B10
8-3
4.518
0.581 (29)
WKU
CUSA
5-4
4.514
0.717 (18)
Cincinnati
AAC
8-2
4.413
-0.36 (217)
Louisiana Tech
CUSA
7-3
4.403
-0.81 (297)
4 Seeds
SMU
AAC
8-3
3.985
0.051 (118)
Marquette
BE
7-3
3.978
0.425 (53)
Bradley
MVC
8-3
3.953
-0.16 (166)
UCF
AAC
7-3
3.948
0.419 (55)
5 Seeds
Wyoming
MWC
8-3
3.886
-0.11 (156)
Connecticut
AAC
7-3
3.859
0.032 (121)
Virginia Tech
ACC
9-1
3.816
-0.79 (294)
Georgia
SEC
7-1
3.799
-0.14 (162)
6 Seeds
Ga Southern
SBC
7-2
3.707
-0.29 (208)
Loyola-Chicago
MVC
9-1
3.684
-0.74 (284)
Boston College
ACC
8-3
3.623
-0.20 (182)
Washington St
P12
6-3
3.622
0.107 (104)
7 Seeds
Washington
P12
7-3
3.489
0.288 (73)
Fresno St
MWC
8-2
3.335
-0.74 (285)
Old Dominion
CUSA
7-3
3.323
-0.09 (152)
UC Davis
BWC
7-2
3.300
-0.23 (190)
8 Seeds
BYU
WCC
8-2
3.199
-0.06 (139)
Penn St
B10
8-3
3.130
-0.05 (134)
San Diego
WCC
8-2
3.035
-0.23 (189)
LSU
SEC
6-2
2.909
-0.07 (143)