Bracketology

NCAA Basketball Bracketology


Welcome to the Donchess Inference Index Bracketology page! Here, we will be updating our bracketology predictions as we get closer to March Madness. To come up with our bracketology predictions, we used the NCAA college basketball DII ratings as a base seeding of the teams and used a formula adding strength of schedule (SOS) to come up with the Bracket Rating. As is customary with the NCAA tournament, we also include the automatic qualifiers which are the champions from the conference tournaments. If the conference champion hasn’t yet been determined, then the highest rated team is predicted to be the champion. The DII takes into account a variety of key indicators that are very good predictors of which teams will make the final tournament.
 
Note that below there are 68 teams that make the NCAA tournament, and the winners of each conference are automatically included in the tournament. Because there are four play-in games, there are 2 seed groups that will have more than 4 teams.

Schools that are ineligible for the NCAA tournament this season include Arkansas-Pine Bluff, Connecticut, Jacksonville State, Mississippi Valley State, UNC-Wilmington, Texas A&M-Corpus Christi, Toledo, Towson and UC Riverside.
 
* denotes that the team gets an automatic bid due to winning their conference.
# denotes first round play-in game

 

Updated on 3/17/2013 @ 5:27pm ET – Final.

Bracketology – NCAA Tournament – On the Bubble Teams

Last Four In Last Four Out Next Four Out
Villanova
Boise St
Iowa
La Salle

 Kentucky
Middle Tenn St
Tennessee
Maryland

 Massachusetts
Southern Miss
Baylor
Virginia

 

Donchess Inference Ratings (DII) – Bracketology – NCAA Tournament Predictions

Seed Team Conf Record Bracket Rating SOS (Rank)
1 Seeds
Louisville
BE*
29-5
3.649
1.089 (8)
Gonzaga
WCC*
31-2
3.550
0.325 (110)
Indiana
B10
27-6
3.438
1.087 (9)
Ohio St
B10*
26-7
3.366
1.108 (6)
2 Seeds
Duke
ACC
27-5
3.352
1.135 (4)
Kansas
B12*
29-5
3.335
0.954 (20)
New Mexico
MWC*
29-5
3.318
1.068 (10)
Georgetown
BE
25-6
3.216
0.986 (17)
3 Seeds
Michigan St
B10
25-7
3.153
1.102 (7)
Miami FL
ACC*
27-6
3.071
1.031 (15)
Florida
SEC
26-7
3.024
0.890 (31)
Kansas St
B12
27-7
2.981
0.665 (67)
4 Seeds
Michigan
B10
25-7
2.969
0.830 (44)
Memphis
CUSA*
30-4
2.964
0.353 (107)
St Louis
A10*
27-6
2.961
0.687 (62)
Syracuse
BE
26-9
2.945
1.066 (11)
5 Seeds
Wisconsin
B10
23-10
2.912
1.180 (3)
Arizona
P12
25-7
2.844
0.918 (24)
Marquette
BE
23-8
2.788
1.047 (14)
Butler
A10
26-8
2.737
0.736 (56)
6 Seeds
Oklahoma St
B12
24-8
2.731
0.866 (37)
VA Commonwealth
A10
26-8
2.727
0.664 (68)
Notre Dame
BE
25-9
2.711
0.833 (43)
Pittsburgh
BE
24-8
2.707
0.682 (64)
7 Seeds
UNLV
MWC
26-9
2.696
0.850 (39)
Creighton
MVC*
27-7
2.688
0.598 (78)
North Carolina
ACC
24-10
2.623
0.919 (23)
UCLA
P12
26-9
2.607
0.877 (33)
8 Seeds
Colorado St
MWC
25-8
2.573
0.620 (75)
Oregon
P12*
26-8
2.535
0.596 (79)
NC State
ACC
24-10
2.454
0.869 (36)
St Mary’s CA
WCC
27-6
2.448
0.233 (115)
9 Seeds
Missouri
SEC
23-10
2.393
0.716 (59)
Cincinnati
BE
22-11
2.389
0.906 (28)
San Diego St
MWC
22-10
2.386
0.781 (48)
Illinois
B10
22-12
2.364
1.049 (13)
10 Seeds
Minnesota
B10
20-12
2.349
1.266 (1)
Mississippi
SEC*
26-8
2.287
0.417 (104)
Wichita St
MVC
26-8
2.286
0.497 (99)
Iowa St
B12
22-11
2.271
0.767 (51)
11 Seeds
Temple
A10
23-9
2.233
0.649 (70)
Colorado
P12
21-11
2.222
0.968 (19)
Oklahoma
B12
20-11
2.202
0.929 (22)
California
P12
20-11
2.160
0.911 (26)
12 Seeds
La Salle
A10#
21-9
2.154
0.595 (80)
Iowa
B10#
21-12
2.124
0.699 (61)
Boise St
MWC#
21-11
2.116
0.637 (71)
Villanova
BE#
20-13
2.078
0.918 (25)
Belmont
OVC*
26-6
1.913
-0.12 (153)
Bucknell
PL*
28-5
1.755
-0.40 (225)
13 Seeds
Akron
MAC*
26-7
1.688
-0.09 (146)
Valparaiso
HL*
26-7
1.646
-0.19 (171)
New Mexico St
WAC*
24-10
1.486
0.050 (127)
Davidson
SC*
26-7
1.434
-0.51 (255)
14 Seeds
Montana
BSC*
25-6
1.207
-0.89 (314)
S Dakota St
SL*
25-9
1.072
-0.57 (268)
Pacific
BWC*
22-12
1.038
-0.06 (141)
Northwestern LA
SLC*
23-8
0.998
-0.77 (295)
15 Seeds
Harvard
Ivy*
19-9
0.979
-0.16 (166)
Iona
MAAC*
20-13
0.867
0.046 (128)
FL Gulf Coast
ASC*
24-10
0.828
-0.57 (270)
Albany NY
AEC*
24-10
0.811
-0.57 (266)
16 Seeds
W Kentucky
SBC*
20-15
0.505
-0.20 (173)
Long Island
NEC*
20-12
0.409
-0.57 (267)
James Madison
CAA*#
20-14
0.305
-0.47 (244)
Southern Univ
SWAC*#
23-9
0.217
-1.45 (347)
NC A&T
MEAC*#
19-16
-0.28
-0.93 (321)
Liberty
BSo*#
15-20
-0.90
-0.98 (326)

 
To see how the DII bracketology compares to other bracketologists see: The Bracket Project
 


 

Donchess Inference Ratings (DII) – Bracketology – NIT Tournament Predictions

For the hardcore college basketball fan, we have now introduced bracketology for the NIT tournament (otherwise known as NITology). The NIT takes the next 32 best teams that did not make the NCAA tournament.

All regular season champions that did not win their conference tournament automatically qualify for the National Invitation Tournament (NIT).
 
* denotes that the team gets an automatic bid due to winning their conference in the regular season.

Seed Team Conf Record Bracket Rating SOS (Rank)
1 Seeds
Kentucky
SEC
21-11
2.069
0.735 (57)
Middle Tenn St
SBC*
28-5
2.031
-0.08 (144)
Tennessee
SEC
20-12
2.023
0.747 (53)
Maryland
ACC
22-12
1.966
0.535 (92)
2 Seeds
Massachusetts
A10
21-11
1.965
0.652 (69)
Southern Miss
CUSA
25-9
1.885
0.136 (120)
Baylor
B12
18-14
1.816
0.822 (46)
Virginia
ACC
21-11
1.799
0.458 (102)
3 Seeds
Alabama
SEC
21-12
1.798
0.578 (84)
Stanford
P12
18-14
1.797
0.876 (34)
Arkansas
SEC
19-13
1.736
0.586 (82)
Arizona St
P12
21-12
1.714
0.531 (93)
4 Seeds
Air Force
MWC
18-13
1.681
0.515 (96)
Charlotte
A10
21-11
1.640
0.390 (106)
Washington
P12
18-15
1.629
0.886 (32)
Providence
BE
17-14
1.617
0.844 (40)
5 Seeds
St Joseph’s PA
A10
18-13
1.615
0.572 (86)
SF Austin
SLC*
27-4
1.608
-1.03 (331)
LSU
SEC
19-12
1.582
0.500 (97)
Xavier
A10
17-14
1.562
0.773 (50)
6 Seeds
Florida St
ACC
18-15
1.561
0.857 (38)
Northern Iowa
MVC
18-14
1.524
0.636 (72)
Louisiana Tech
WAC*
26-6
1.522
-0.35 (214)
Wyoming
MWC
19-14
1.519
0.577 (85)
7 Seeds
Stony Brook
AEC*
23-7
1.199
-0.62 (276)
Long Beach St
BWC*
19-13
0.805
0.002 (132)
Robert Morris
NEC*
23-10
0.774
-0.52 (256)
Niagara
MAAC*
19-13
0.697
-0.06 (139)
8 Seeds
Mercer
ASC*
23-11
0.587
-0.69 (283)
Northeastern
CAA*
20-12
0.513
-0.32 (203)
Norfolk St
MEAC*
21-11
0.195
-0.90 (316)
High Point
BSo*
17-13
-0.45
-1.12 (340)