Bracketology
NCAA Basketball Bracketology
Welcome to the Donchess Inference Index Bracketology page! Here, we will be updating our bracketology predictions as we get closer to March Madness. To come up with our bracketology predictions, we used the NCAA college basketball DII ratings as a base seeding of the teams and used a formula adding strength of schedule (SOS) to come up with the Bracket Rating. As is customary with the NCAA tournament, we also include the automatic qualifiers which are the champions from the conference tournaments. If the conference champion hasn’t yet been determined, then the highest rated team is predicted to be the champion. The DII takes into account a variety of key indicators that are very good predictors of which teams will make the final tournament.
Note that below there are 68 teams that make the NCAA tournament, and the winners of each conference are automatically included in the tournament. Because there are four play-in games, there are 2 seed groups that will have more than 4 teams.
* denotes that the team gets an automatic bid due to winning their conference.
# denotes first round play-in game
Updated on 3/1/2015.
Bracketology – NCAA Tournament – On the Bubble Teams
| Last Four In |
Last Four Out |
Next Four Out |
Davidson
Pittsburgh
Illinois
Purdue
|
Dayton
Cincinnati
Minnesota
Alabama
|
TCU
Florida
Vanderbilt
Tulsa
|
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Bracketology – 2015 NCAA Tournament Predictions
| Seed |
Team |
Conf |
Record |
Bracket Rating |
SOS (Rank) |
| 1 Seeds |
Kentucky |
SEC* |
29-0 |
6.560 |
1.593 (25) |
| Virginia |
ACC* |
27-1 |
5.356 |
1.386 (42) |
| Villanova |
BE* |
27-2 |
4.922 |
1.491 (33) |
| Arizona |
P12* |
26-3 |
4.902 |
1.364 (47) |
| 2 Seeds |
Wisconsin |
B10* |
25-3 |
4.748 |
1.551 (28) |
| Gonzaga |
WCC* |
29-2 |
4.608 |
0.690 (85) |
| Duke |
ACC |
26-3 |
4.491 |
1.679 (18) |
| Kansas |
B12* |
23-6 |
4.227 |
2.503 (1) |
| 3 Seeds |
Utah |
P12 |
22-6 |
3.823 |
1.102 (65) |
| Baylor |
B12 |
22-7 |
3.732 |
1.723 (15) |
| Wichita St |
MVC* |
27-3 |
3.682 |
0.298 (105) |
| Oklahoma |
B12 |
20-8 |
3.635 |
1.955 (5) |
| 4 Seeds |
Louisville |
ACC |
23-6 |
3.617 |
1.523 (31) |
| Iowa St |
B12 |
20-8 |
3.482 |
1.865 (8) |
| Notre Dame |
ACC |
24-5 |
3.451 |
0.808 (79) |
| North Carolina |
ACC |
20-9 |
3.377 |
2.191 (2) |
| 5 Seeds |
Northern Iowa |
MVC |
27-3 |
3.284 |
0.297 (106) |
| Ohio St |
B10 |
20-8 |
3.228 |
1.028 (68) |
| SMU |
AAC* |
23-5 |
3.215 |
0.456 (98) |
| Maryland |
B10 |
24-5 |
3.176 |
1.431 (40) |
| 6 Seeds |
Arkansas |
SEC |
23-6 |
3.168 |
1.198 (58) |
| West Virginia |
B12 |
22-7 |
3.160 |
1.687 (17) |
| Georgetown |
BE |
18-9 |
3.089 |
1.970 (4) |
| Butler |
BE |
21-8 |
3.088 |
1.553 (27) |
| 7 Seeds |
VA Commonwealth |
A10* |
21-8 |
3.015 |
1.316 (51) |
| Michigan St |
B10 |
19-9 |
2.917 |
1.339 (49) |
| Texas |
B12 |
17-12 |
2.862 |
1.888 (7) |
| Iowa |
B10 |
19-10 |
2.846 |
1.488 (34) |
| 8 Seeds |
St John’s |
BE |
20-9 |
2.790 |
1.431 (39) |
| Xavier |
BE |
18-12 |
2.775 |
1.771 (12) |
| LSU |
SEC |
21-8 |
2.719 |
1.119 (64) |
| San Diego St |
MWC* |
22-7 |
2.695 |
0.515 (95) |
| 9 Seeds |
Oklahoma St |
B12 |
17-11 |
2.686 |
1.710 (16) |
| BYU |
WCC |
23-8 |
2.680 |
0.514 (96) |
| Georgia |
SEC |
19-9 |
2.645 |
1.618 (21) |
| Texas A&M |
SEC |
20-8 |
2.616 |
1.290 (56) |
| 10 Seeds |
Stanford |
P12 |
18-9 |
2.601 |
1.231 (57) |
| Providence |
BE |
19-9 |
2.579 |
1.891 (6) |
| Oregon |
P12 |
21-8 |
2.506 |
0.986 (70) |
| Indiana |
B10 |
19-10 |
2.492 |
1.297 (54) |
| 11 Seeds |
NC State |
ACC |
17-12 |
2.484 |
1.829 (11) |
| Mississippi |
SEC |
19-10 |
2.479 |
1.357 (48) |
| UCLA |
P12 |
17-12 |
2.416 |
1.737 (14) |
| Purdue |
B10# |
19-9 |
2.405 |
1.150 (63) |
Illinois |
B10# |
18-11 |
2.336 |
1.301 (53) |
| 12 Seeds |
Pittsburgh |
ACC# |
19-10 |
2.282 |
1.184 (59) |
| Davidson |
A10# |
21-6 |
2.278 |
0.214 (113) |
| SF Austin |
SLC* |
24-4 |
2.143 |
-1.47 (315) |
| Buffalo |
MAC* |
19-9 |
1.860 |
0.422 (100) |
Valparaiso |
HL* |
26-5 |
1.817 |
-1.07 (253) |
| 13 Seeds |
Murray St |
OVC* |
26-4 |
1.708 |
-1.17 (273) |
| Iona |
MAAC* |
24-6 |
1.623 |
-0.43 (168) |
| Old Dominion |
CUSA* |
22-6 |
1.603 |
-0.06 (134) |
| Harvard |
Ivy* |
20-6 |
1.477 |
-0.62 (193) |
| 14 Seeds |
Wofford |
SC* |
25-6 |
1.456 |
-0.70 (205) |
| UC Davis |
BWC* |
22-5 |
1.317 |
-1.16 (271) |
| Georgia St |
SBC* |
20-9 |
1.155 |
-0.79 (215) |
| S Dakota St |
SL* |
21-9 |
0.900 |
-1.02 (245) |
| 15 Seeds |
New Mexico St |
WAC* |
19-10 |
0.882 |
-1.05 (250) |
| NC Central |
MEAC* |
22-6 |
0.734 |
-2.09 (347) |
| High Point |
BSo* |
23-8 |
0.710 |
-1.25 (288) |
| Northeastern |
CAA* |
20-11 |
0.644 |
-0.30 (154) |
| 16 Seeds |
E Washington |
BSC* |
21-8 |
0.591 |
-1.35 (299) |
| Albany NY |
AEC* |
21-8 |
0.578 |
-1.11 (260) |
| North Florida |
ASC*# |
20-11 |
0.387 |
-1.60 (329) |
| St Francis NY |
NEC*# |
21-10 |
0.330 |
-1.40 (305) |
Colgate |
PL*# |
15-16 |
0.079 |
-0.67 (202) |
| TX Southern |
SWAC*# |
16-12 |
-0.01 |
-0.89 (229) |
To see how the DII bracketology compares to other bracketologists see: The Bracket Project
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Bracketology – 2015 NIT Tournament Predictions
For the hardcore college basketball fan, we have now introduced bracketology for the NIT tournament (otherwise known as NITology). The NIT takes the next 32 best teams that did not make the NCAA tournament.
All regular season champions that did not win their conference tournament automatically qualify for the National Invitation Tournament (NIT). It is important to note that early predictions will be flawed because of this rule. Typically, there are about seven to nine teams that win their conference in the regular season but don’t win their conference tournament and end up in the NIT. So, in early predictions, if your team is a seven or eight seed, then it is likely they won’t make the tournament because of these auto qualifiers.
* denotes that the team gets an automatic bid due to winning their conference in the regular season.
| Seed |
Team |
Conf |
Record |
Bracket Rating |
SOS (Rank) |
| 1 Seeds |
Dayton |
A10 |
22-6 |
2.249 |
0.556 (92) |
| Cincinnati |
AAC |
20-9 |
2.213 |
0.740 (83) |
| Minnesota |
B10 |
17-12 |
2.205 |
0.921 (74) |
| Alabama |
SEC |
17-12 |
2.157 |
1.309 (52) |
| 2 Seeds |
TCU |
B12 |
17-12 |
2.146 |
0.926 (73) |
| Florida |
SEC |
14-15 |
2.122 |
1.855 (9) |
| Vanderbilt |
SEC |
17-12 |
2.112 |
0.981 (71) |
| Tulsa |
AAC |
21-7 |
2.109 |
0.500 (97) |
| 3 Seeds |
Boise St |
MWC |
22-7 |
2.104 |
-0.07 (135) |
| Temple |
AAC |
20-9 |
2.095 |
0.797 (80) |
| Miami FL |
ACC |
18-11 |
2.067 |
1.372 (46) |
| Arizona St |
P12 |
15-13 |
2.033 |
1.461 (37) |
| 4 Seeds |
St Mary’s CA |
WCC |
21-8 |
2.013 |
0.544 (93) |
| Richmond |
A10 |
17-12 |
2.002 |
0.874 (75) |
| South Carolina |
SEC |
14-14 |
1.979 |
1.503 (32) |
| Kansas St |
B12 |
15-15 |
1.973 |
2.026 (3) |
| 5 Seeds |
Connecticut |
AAC |
16-11 |
1.903 |
0.794 (81) |
| Rhode Island |
A10 |
20-7 |
1.877 |
0.151 (115) |
| Colorado St |
MWC |
25-5 |
1.817 |
-0.16 (143) |
| Clemson |
ACC |
16-12 |
1.816 |
1.383 (43) |
| 6 Seeds |
Seton Hall |
BE |
16-12 |
1.715 |
1.471 (36) |
| Michigan |
B10 |
14-14 |
1.659 |
1.603 (24) |
| WI Green Bay |
HL |
23-7 |
1.489 |
-0.46 (173) |
| Illinois St |
MVC |
19-11 |
1.472 |
0.256 (109) |
| 7 Seeds |
Georgia Tech |
ACC |
12-17 |
1.449 |
1.676 (19) |
| G Washington |
A10 |
18-11 |
1.444 |
0.536 (94) |
| Oregon St |
P12 |
17-11 |
1.438 |
0.680 (86) |
| Tennessee |
SEC |
14-14 |
1.428 |
1.617 (22) |
| 8 Seeds |
Louisiana Tech |
CUSA |
23-7 |
1.422 |
-0.56 (181) |
| Memphis |
AAC |
17-12 |
1.409 |
0.737 (84) |
| Creighton |
BE |
13-16 |
1.404 |
1.331 (50) |
| Colorado |
P12 |
12-15 |
1.370 |
1.479 (35) |
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