Bracketology


NCAA Basketball Bracketology

Welcome to the Donchess Inference Index Bracketology page! Here, we will be updating our bracketology predictions as we get closer to March Madness. To come up with our bracketology predictions, we used the NCAA college basketball DII ratings as a base seeding of the teams and used a formula adding strength of schedule (SOS) to come up with the Bracket Rating. As is customary with the NCAA tournament, we also include the automatic qualifiers which are the champions from the conference tournaments. If the conference champion hasn’t yet been determined, then the highest rated team is predicted to be the champion. The DII takes into account a variety of key indicators that are very good predictors of which teams will make the final tournament.

Note that below there are 68 teams that make the NCAA tournament, and the winners of each conference are automatically included in the tournament. Because there are four play-in games, there are 2 seed groups that will have more than 4 teams.

Early in the season (pre-January) a lot of the teams may appear to have some strange seedings. Before teams get into conference play, there is a lot of projection that needs to be done to seed the teams. Once January and February comes along the projections are slowly worked out of the equation and only actual results are used.

* denotes that the team gets an automatic bid due to winning their conference.
# denotes first round play-in game

Updated on 10/31/2016 @ 2:05pm ET.

Bracketology – NCAA Tournament – On the Bubble Teams

Last Four In First Four Out Next Four Out
Dayton
Georgia Tech
St Mary’s CA
Utah
Georgetown
Clemson
Colorado
St Joseph’s PA
South Carolina
Providence
Virginia Tech
Ohio St


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Bracketology – 2016 NCAA Tournament Predictions

Seed Team Conf Record Bracket Rating SOS (Rank)
1 Seeds
Duke
ACC*
25-11
16.17
0 (1)
Kansas
B12*
33-5
14.98
0 (1)
North Carolina
ACC
33-7
12.85
0 (1)
Kentucky
SEC*
27-9
12.57
0 (1)
2 Seeds
Villanova
BE*
35-5
12.24
0 (1)
Oregon
P12*
31-7
11.52
0 (1)
Michigan St
B10*
29-6
10.69
0 (1)
Virginia
ACC
29-8
10.66
0 (1)
3 Seeds
Arizona
P12
25-9
10.20
0 (1)
Wisconsin
B10
22-13
9.523
0 (1)
Syracuse
ACC
23-14
8.748
0 (1)
Louisville
ACC
23-8
8.704
0 (1)
4 Seeds
Indiana
B10
27-8
8.569
0 (1)
Xavier
BE
28-6
8.481
0 (1)
Oklahoma
B12
29-8
7.978
0 (1)
West Virginia
B12
26-9
7.617
0 (1)
5 Seeds
Texas
B12
20-13
7.614
0 (1)
Miami FL
ACC
27-8
7.543
0 (1)
Purdue
B10
26-9
7.183
0 (1)
Connecticut
AAC*
25-11
6.697
0 (1)
6 Seeds
Gonzaga
WCC*
28-8
6.630
0 (1)
Iowa St
B12
23-12
6.621
0 (1)
Maryland
B10
27-9
6.314
0 (1)
California
P12
23-11
6.289
0 (1)
7 Seeds
Texas A&M
SEC
28-9
6.172
0 (1)
Iowa
B10
22-10
6.122
0 (1)
Seton Hall
BE
25-9
5.939
0 (1)
Notre Dame
ACC
24-12
5.370
0 (1)
8 Seeds
Baylor
B12
22-12
5.295
0 (1)
Wichita St
MVC*
26-9
5.213
0 (1)
Butler
BE
22-11
5.152
0 (1)
UCLA
P12
15-17
4.860
0 (1)
9 Seeds
Florida
SEC
21-15
4.760
0 (1)
SMU
AAC
25-5
4.711
0 (1)
Michigan
B10
23-13
4.709
0 (1)
Cincinnati
AAC
22-11
4.547
0 (1)
10 Seeds
Pittsburgh
ACC
21-12
4.521
0 (1)
Vanderbilt
SEC
19-14
4.459
0 (1)
Florida St
ACC
20-14
4.329
0 (1)
NC State
ACC
16-17
4.282
0 (1)
11 Seeds
VA Commonwealth
A10*
25-11
4.248
0 (1)
USC
P12
21-13
4.028
0 (1)
Utah
P12#
27-9
3.958
0 (1)
St Mary’s CA
WCC#
29-6
3.898
0 (1)
San Diego St
MWC*
28-10
3.897
0 (1)
12 Seeds
Georgia Tech
ACC#
21-15
3.845
0 (1)
Dayton
A10#
25-8
3.790
0 (1)
Valparaiso
HL*
30-7
3.050
0 (1)
Yale
Ivy*
23-7
2.122
0 (1)
Hawaii
BWC*
28-6
1.799
0 (1)
13 Seeds
SF Austin
SLC*
28-6
1.616
0 (1)
Ark Little Rock
SBC*
30-5
1.557
0 (1)
Hofstra
CAA*
24-10
1.430
0 (1)
S Dakota St
SL*
26-8
1.126
0 (1)
14 Seeds
Monmouth NJ
MAAC*
28-8
1.084
0 (1)
Akron
MAC*
26-9
0.931
0 (1)
Old Dominion
CUSA*
25-13
0.708
0 (1)
Stony Brook
AEC*
26-7
0.640
0 (1)
15 Seeds
Chattanooga
SC*
29-6
0.620
0 (1)
New Mexico St
WAC*
23-11
0.406
0 (1)
Belmont
OVC*
20-11
0.126
0 (1)
UNC Asheville
BSo*
22-12
-0.03
0 (1)
16 Seeds
Weber St
BSC*
25-9
-0.66
0 (1)
North Florida
ASC*
22-12
-1.20
0 (1)
Bucknell
PL*#
17-14
-1.50
0 (1)
TX Southern
SWAC*#
18-15
-1.56
0 (1)
Wagner
NEC*#
23-11
-2.33
0 (1)
Hampton
MEAC*#
21-11
-2.38
0 (1)

To see how the DII bracketology compares to other bracketologists see: The Bracket Project


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Bracketology – 2016 NIT Tournament Predictions

For the hardcore college basketball fan, we have now introduced bracketology for the NIT tournament (otherwise known as NITology). The NIT takes the next 32 best teams that did not make the NCAA tournament.

All regular season champions that did not win their conference tournament automatically qualify for the National Invitation Tournament (NIT). It is important to note that early predictions will be flawed because of this rule. Typically, there are about seven to nine teams that win their conference in the regular season but don’t win their conference tournament and end up in the NIT. So, in early predictions, if your team is a seven or eight seed, then it is likely they won’t make the tournament because of these auto qualifiers.

* denotes that the team gets an automatic bid due to winning their conference in the regular season.

Seed Team Conf Record Bracket Rating SOS (Rank)
1 Seeds
Georgetown
BE
15-18
3.719
0 (1)
Clemson
ACC
17-14
3.640
0 (1)
Colorado
P12
22-12
3.618
0 (1)
St Joseph’s PA
A10
28-8
3.612
0 (1)
2 Seeds
South Carolina
SEC
25-9
3.591
0 (1)
Providence
BE
24-11
3.580
0 (1)
Virginia Tech
ACC
20-15
3.543
0 (1)
Ohio St
B10
20-14
3.422
0 (1)
3 Seeds
Washington
P12
19-15
3.228
0 (1)
Kansas St
B12
17-16
3.139
0 (1)
Oregon St
P12
19-13
3.038
0 (1)
Georgia
SEC
20-14
2.994
0 (1)
4 Seeds
Creighton
BE
20-15
2.965
0 (1)
Texas Tech
B12
19-13
2.859
0 (1)
Temple
AAC
21-12
2.858
0 (1)
Marquette
BE
20-13
2.847
0 (1)
5 Seeds
BYU
WCC
26-11
2.835
0 (1)
G Washington
A10
28-10
2.829
0 (1)
LSU
SEC
19-14
2.822
0 (1)
Arkansas
SEC
16-16
2.666
0 (1)
6 Seeds
Mississippi
SEC
20-12
2.547
0 (1)
Alabama
SEC
18-15
2.540
0 (1)
Tulsa
AAC
20-12
2.311
0 (1)
Arizona St
P12
15-17
2.283
0 (1)
7 Seeds
Stanford
P12
15-15
2.261
0 (1)
Northern Iowa
MVC
23-13
2.142
0 (1)
Boise St
MWC
20-12
2.093
0 (1)
Tennessee
SEC
15-19
2.068
0 (1)
8 Seeds
Memphis
AAC
19-15
2.064
0 (1)
Nebraska
B10
16-18
2.045
0 (1)
Mississippi St
SEC
14-17
1.936
0 (1)
UNLV
MWC
18-15
1.835
0 (1)


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