Bracketology
NCAA Basketball Bracketology
Welcome to the Donchess Inference Index Bracketology page! Here, we will be updating our bracketology predictions as we get closer to March Madness. To come up with our bracketology predictions, we used the NCAA college basketball DII ratings as a base seeding of the teams and used a formula adding strength of schedule (SOS) to come up with the Bracket Rating. As is customary with the NCAA tournament, we also include the automatic qualifiers which are the champions from the conference tournaments. If the conference champion hasn’t yet been determined, then the highest rated team is predicted to be the champion. The DII takes into account a variety of key indicators that are very good predictors of which teams will make the final tournament.
Note that below there are 68 teams that make the NCAA tournament, and the winners of each conference are automatically included in the tournament. Because there are four play-in games, there are 2 seed groups that will have more than 4 teams.
* denotes that the team gets an automatic bid due to winning their conference.
# denotes first round play-in game
Final: Updated on 3/16/2014 @ 5:30 pm.
Bracketology – NCAA Tournament – On the Bubble Teams
| Last Four In |
Last Four Out |
Next Four Out |
Nebraska
BYU
Dayton
SMU
|
Florida St
Utah
St John’s
Missouri
|
NC State
California
Minnesota
Arkansas
|
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Bracketology – 2014 NCAA Tournament Predictions
| Seed |
Team |
Conf |
Record |
Bracket Rating |
SOS (Rank) |
| 1 Seeds |
Florida |
SEC* |
32-2 |
5.124 |
1.327 (38) |
| Wichita St |
MVC* |
34-0 |
5.090 |
0.257 (120) |
| Arizona |
P12 |
30-4 |
4.529 |
1.577 (4) |
| Villanova |
BE |
28-4 |
4.141 |
1.368 (32) |
| 2 Seeds |
Kansas |
B12 |
24-9 |
3.906 |
2.193 (1) |
| Virginia |
ACC* |
28-6 |
3.824 |
1.274 (42) |
| Syracuse |
ACC |
27-5 |
3.804 |
1.206 (53) |
| Wisconsin |
B10 |
26-7 |
3.745 |
1.703 (2) |
| 3 Seeds |
Iowa St |
B12* |
26-7 |
3.743 |
1.672 (3) |
| Michigan |
B10 |
25-8 |
3.741 |
1.574 (6) |
| Creighton |
BE |
26-7 |
3.729 |
1.460 (19) |
| Louisville |
AAC* |
29-5 |
3.718 |
0.732 (88) |
| 4 Seeds |
Duke |
ACC |
26-8 |
3.634 |
1.538 (8) |
| San Diego St |
MWC |
29-4 |
3.625 |
0.495 (107) |
| Michigan St |
B10* |
26-8 |
3.565 |
1.534 (9) |
| Cincinnati |
AAC |
27-6 |
3.486 |
0.859 (83) |
| 5 Seeds |
UCLA |
P12* |
26-8 |
3.411 |
1.406 (26) |
| New Mexico |
MWC* |
27-6 |
3.324 |
0.894 (80) |
| Connecticut |
AAC |
26-8 |
3.284 |
1.185 (58) |
| Oklahoma |
B12 |
23-9 |
3.254 |
1.574 (5) |
| 6 Seeds |
Kentucky |
SEC |
24-10 |
3.237 |
1.571 (7) |
| Ohio St |
B10 |
25-9 |
3.194 |
1.400 (28) |
| North Carolina |
ACC |
23-9 |
3.193 |
1.389 (30) |
| Texas |
B12 |
23-10 |
3.154 |
1.475 (16) |
| 7 Seeds |
Pittsburgh |
ACC |
25-9 |
3.129 |
1.238 (48) |
| Baylor |
B12 |
24-11 |
3.119 |
1.399 (29) |
| Gonzaga |
WCC* |
28-6 |
3.074 |
0.582 (99) |
| VA Commonwealth |
A10 |
26-8 |
3.071 |
1.036 (68) |
| 8 Seeds |
Oregon |
P12 |
23-9 |
3.059 |
1.419 (22) |
| St Louis |
A10 |
26-6 |
2.972 |
0.646 (95) |
| Oklahoma St |
B12 |
21-12 |
2.889 |
1.515 (14) |
| Massachusetts |
A10 |
24-8 |
2.883 |
1.187 (57) |
| 9 Seeds |
Colorado |
P12 |
23-11 |
2.845 |
1.497 (15) |
| G Washington |
A10 |
24-8 |
2.827 |
0.851 (85) |
| Memphis |
AAC |
23-9 |
2.778 |
0.955 (76) |
| Providence |
BE* |
23-11 |
2.773 |
1.333 (37) |
| 10 Seeds |
Tennessee |
SEC |
21-12 |
2.751 |
1.264 (44) |
| Stanford |
P12 |
21-12 |
2.680 |
1.524 (12) |
| Arizona St |
P12 |
21-11 |
2.671 |
1.334 (36) |
| Iowa |
B10 |
19-12 |
2.665 |
1.240 (47) |
| 11 Seeds |
St Joseph’s PA |
A10* |
24-9 |
2.652 |
0.939 (79) |
| SF Austin |
SLC* |
31-2 |
2.594 |
-1.25 (325) |
| Xavier |
BE |
21-12 |
2.590 |
1.451 (20) |
| Kansas St |
B12 |
20-12 |
2.589 |
1.466 (18) |
| 12 Seeds |
SMU |
AAC# |
23-9 |
2.497 |
0.691 (91) |
| Dayton |
A10# |
23-10 |
2.495 |
0.888 (81) |
| BYU |
WCC# |
22-11 |
2.488 |
1.077 (65) |
| Nebraska |
B10# |
19-12 |
2.464 |
1.403 (27) |
Harvard |
Ivy* |
26-4 |
2.363 |
-0.54 (213) |
| N Dakota St |
SL* |
25-6 |
2.074 |
-0.38 (193) |
| 13 Seeds |
Manhattan |
MAAC* |
25-7 |
1.804 |
-0.25 (174) |
| W Michigan |
MAC* |
23-9 |
1.693 |
-0.12 (152) |
| New Mexico St |
WAC* |
26-9 |
1.607 |
-0.39 (197) |
| Tulsa |
CUSA* |
21-12 |
1.601 |
0.412 (112) |
| 14 Seeds |
Delaware |
CAA* |
25-9 |
1.459 |
-0.39 (195) |
| NC Central |
MEAC* |
28-5 |
1.399 |
-1.57 (347) |
| ULL |
SBC* |
23-11 |
1.028 |
-0.45 (204) |
| E Kentucky |
OVC* |
24-9 |
1.023 |
-0.89 (274) |
| 15 Seeds |
Mercer |
ASC* |
24-7 |
1.008 |
-0.86 (269) |
| WI Milwaukee |
HL* |
21-13 |
0.657 |
-0.24 (171) |
| American Univ |
PL* |
20-12 |
0.505 |
-0.71 (243) |
| Weber St |
BSC* |
19-11 |
0.318 |
-0.89 (277) |
| 16 Seeds |
Wofford |
SC* |
20-12 |
-0.03 |
-1.20 (319) |
| Cal Poly SLO |
BWC* |
13-19 |
-0.14 |
0.016 (139) |
| Coastal Car |
BSo*# |
21-12 |
-0.20 |
-1.35 (337) |
| Mt St Mary’s |
NEC*# |
16-16 |
-0.36 |
-0.63 (232) |
Albany NY |
AEC*# |
18-14 |
-0.59 |
-1.04 (296) |
| TX Southern |
SWAC*# |
16-14 |
-0.70 |
-1.33 (336) |
To see how the DII bracketology compares to other bracketologists see: The Bracket Project
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Bracketology – 2014 NIT Tournament Predictions
For the hardcore college basketball fan, we have now introduced bracketology for the NIT tournament (otherwise known as NITology). The NIT takes the next 32 best teams that did not make the NCAA tournament.
All regular season champions that did not win their conference tournament automatically qualify for the National Invitation Tournament (NIT).
* denotes that the team gets an automatic bid due to winning their conference in the regular season.
| Seed |
Team |
Conf |
Record |
Bracket Rating |
SOS (Rank) |
| 1 Seeds |
Florida St |
ACC |
19-13 |
2.447 |
1.417 (23) |
| Utah |
P12 |
21-11 |
2.433 |
0.787 (86) |
| St John’s |
BE |
20-12 |
2.432 |
1.278 (41) |
| Missouri |
SEC |
22-11 |
2.353 |
1.223 (51) |
| 2 Seeds |
NC State |
ACC |
21-13 |
2.351 |
1.270 (43) |
| California |
P12 |
19-13 |
2.343 |
1.370 (31) |
| Minnesota |
B10 |
19-13 |
2.297 |
1.335 (35) |
| Arkansas |
SEC |
21-11 |
2.283 |
0.943 (78) |
| 3 Seeds |
Southern Miss |
CUSA |
27-6 |
2.257 |
-0.23 (169) |
| Clemson |
ACC |
20-12 |
2.226 |
0.968 (73) |
| Toledo |
MAC |
27-6 |
2.225 |
-0.11 (151) |
| Illinois |
B10 |
19-14 |
2.214 |
1.366 (34) |
| 4 Seeds |
Georgetown |
BE |
17-14 |
2.164 |
1.525 (11) |
| Louisiana Tech |
CUSA* |
27-7 |
2.159 |
-0.30 (180) |
| West Virginia |
B12 |
17-15 |
2.124 |
1.414 (24) |
| WI Green Bay |
HL* |
24-6 |
2.056 |
-0.31 (182) |
| 5 Seeds |
LSU |
SEC |
19-13 |
2.055 |
1.158 (61) |
| Marquette |
BE |
17-15 |
2.025 |
1.299 (40) |
| Maryland |
ACC |
17-15 |
2.006 |
1.411 (25) |
| Georgia |
SEC |
19-13 |
1.928 |
1.025 (69) |
| 6 Seeds |
Indiana |
B10 |
17-15 |
1.918 |
1.249 (45) |
| Iona |
MAAC* |
22-10 |
1.530 |
-0.00 (141) |
| Georgia St |
SBC* |
25-8 |
1.452 |
-0.64 (234) |
| Belmont |
OVC* |
24-9 |
1.432 |
-0.36 (191) |
| 7 Seeds |
UC Irvine |
BWC* |
23-11 |
1.120 |
-0.41 (199) |
| Boston Univ |
PL* |
24-10 |
1.057 |
-0.43 (201) |
| Davidson |
SC* |
20-12 |
0.595 |
-0.57 (216) |
| Utah Valley |
WAC* |
19-10 |
0.569 |
-0.62 (228) |
| 8 Seeds |
Vermont |
AEC* |
22-10 |
0.392 |
-0.95 (287) |
| Robert Morris |
NEC* |
21-13 |
0.376 |
-0.62 (227) |
| FL Gulf Coast |
ASC* |
22-12 |
-0.02 |
-1.00 (292) |
| High Point |
BSo* |
16-14 |
-0.51 |
-0.99 (290) |
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