Bracketology


Welcome to the Donchess Inference Index Bracketology page! Here, we will be updating our bracketology predictions as we get closer to March Madness. To come up with our bracketology predictions, we used the NCAA college basketball DII ratings as a base seeding of the teams and used a formula adding strength of schedule (SOS) to come up with the Bracket Rating. As is customary with the NCAA tournament, we also include the automatic qualifiers which are the champions from the conference tournaments. If the conference champion hasn’t yet been determined, then the highest rated team is predicted to be the champion. The DII takes into account a variety of key indicators that are very good predictors of which teams will make the final tournament.

Note that below there are 68 teams that make the NCAA tournament, and the winners of each conference are automatically included in the tournament. Because there are four play-in games, there are 2 seed groups that will have more than 4 teams.

Early in the season (pre-January) a lot of the teams may appear to have some strange seedings. Before teams get into conference play, there is a lot of projection that needs to be done to seed the teams. Once January and February comes along the projections are slowly worked out of the equation and only actual results are used.

* denotes that the team gets an automatic bid due to winning their conference.
# denotes first round play-in game

Updated on 1/15/2017 @ 10:30am ET.

Bracketology – NCAA Tournament – On the Bubble Teams

Last Four In First Four Out Next Four Out
Arkansas
Illinois St
VA Commonwealth
California
Georgia
Utah
Michigan
Pittsburgh
Col Charleston
Wake Forest
Illinois
Rhode Island


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Bracketology – 2017 NCAA Tournament Predictions

Seed Team Conf Record Bracket Rating SOS (Rank)
1 Seeds
Gonzaga
WCC*
17-0
10.32
0.256 (79)
Villanova
BE*
17-1
9.353
0.915 (10)
Baylor
B12*
16-1
8.874
0.736 (26)
Kentucky
SEC*
15-2
8.795
0.806 (18)
2 Seeds
Kansas
B12
16-1
8.689
0.869 (14)
UCLA
P12*
18-1
8.282
0.383 (59)
Creighton
BE
17-1
7.850
0.410 (53)
West Virginia
B12
15-2
7.751
0.217 (85)
3 Seeds
Florida St
ACC*
16-2
7.743
0.561 (35)
Notre Dame
ACC
16-2
7.697
0.511 (42)
Louisville
ACC
15-3
7.581
1.094 (4)
North Carolina
ACC
16-3
7.449
0.840 (17)
4 Seeds
Florida
SEC
14-3
7.109
1.261 (1)
Arizona
P12
16-2
7.030
0.603 (32)
Butler
BE
15-3
6.965
1.100 (3)
Oregon
P12
16-2
6.777
0.258 (78)
5 Seeds
Virginia
ACC
13-3
6.630
0.843 (16)
Wisconsin
B10*
14-3
6.508
0.461 (48)
Cincinnati
AAC*
14-2
5.833
0.342 (63)
Duke
ACC
14-4
5.691
0.765 (23)
6 Seeds
Purdue
B10
14-4
5.660
0.549 (37)
St Mary’s CA
WCC
15-2
5.433
0.208 (86)
Maryland
B10
16-2
5.064
0.195 (87)
Xavier
BE
13-4
5.021
0.989 (5)
7 Seeds
South Carolina
SEC
14-3
5.015
0.259 (77)
TCU
B12
14-3
4.952
0.263 (76)
Minnesota
B10
15-4
4.769
0.729 (27)
Iowa St
B12
11-5
4.711
0.645 (29)
8 Seeds
Northwestern
B10
14-4
4.595
0.402 (55)
SMU
AAC
14-4
4.517
0.284 (73)
Michigan St
B10
12-6
4.062
0.900 (13)
Virginia Tech
ACC
13-4
4.038
0.298 (71)
9 Seeds
Kansas St
B12
13-4
4.037
0.188 (89)
Dayton
A10*
13-4
3.970
0.272 (74)
Marquette
BE
12-5
3.867
0.412 (52)
Miami FL
ACC
12-4
3.857
0.338 (64)
10 Seeds
UNC Wilmington
CAA*
17-2
3.809
-0.47 (220)
Indiana
B10
11-6
3.708
0.324 (67)
Wichita St
MVC*
15-4
3.675
-0.21 (158)
Texas Tech
B12
13-4
3.598
0.000 (106)
11 Seeds
Seton Hall
BE
12-5
3.585
0.527 (39)
Clemson
ACC
11-6
3.575
0.964 (8)
USC
P12
15-3
3.565
0.238 (81)
California
P12#
13-5
3.516
0.321 (68)
VA Commonwealth
A10#
14-4
3.489
0.263 (75)
12 Seeds
Illinois St
MVC#
14-4
3.433
0.042 (105)
Arkansas
SEC#
13-4
3.370
0.417 (51)
MTSU
CUSA*
15-3
3.129
-0.02 (112)
Chattanooga
SC*
14-4
2.946
-0.39 (204)
Nevada
MWC*
15-3
2.944
0.054 (104)
13 Seeds
New Mexico St
WAC*
17-2
2.376
-1.01 (327)
Akron
MAC*
14-3
2.241
-0.40 (205)
Vermont
AEC*
14-5
2.071
-0.21 (157)
Valparaiso
HL*
14-4
1.817
-0.24 (164)
14 Seeds
UT Arlington
SBC*
12-5
1.681
-0.15 (140)
FL Gulf Coast
ASC*
14-5
1.673
-0.48 (224)
Belmont
OVC*
11-4
1.557
-0.15 (138)
Monmouth NJ
MAAC*
13-5
1.442
-0.04 (115)
15 Seeds
Bucknell
PL*
13-6
1.360
-0.01 (111)
Princeton
Ivy*
10-6
1.276
-0.24 (162)
UNC Asheville
BSo*
13-6
1.193
-0.34 (188)
IPFW
SL*
14-5
0.797
-0.89 (309)
16 Seeds
TX Southern
SWAC*
8-9
0.648
0.799 (19)
Montana
BSC*
10-9
-0.05
-0.12 (132)
UC Irvine
BWC*#
11-9
-0.34
-0.31 (177)
Sam Houston St
SLC*#
13-6
-0.73
-1.02 (329)
NC Central
MEAC*#
11-6
-0.90
-1.18 (341)
Mt St Mary’s
NEC*#
7-13
-1.83
0.317 (69)

To see how the DII bracketology compares to other bracketologists see: The Bracket Project


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Bracketology – 2017 NIT Tournament Predictions

For the hardcore college basketball fan, we have now introduced bracketology for the NIT tournament (otherwise known as NITology). The NIT takes the next 32 best teams that did not make the NCAA tournament.

All regular season champions that did not win their conference tournament automatically qualify for the National Invitation Tournament (NIT). It is important to note that early predictions will be flawed because of this rule. Typically, there are about seven to nine teams that win their conference in the regular season but don’t win their conference tournament and end up in the NIT. So, in early predictions, if your team is a seven or eight seed, then it is likely they won’t make the tournament because of these auto qualifiers.

* denotes that the team gets an automatic bid due to winning their conference in the regular season.

Seed Team Conf Record Bracket Rating SOS (Rank)
1 Seeds
Georgia
SEC
11-6
3.332
0.605 (31)
Utah
P12
12-5
3.200
-0.25 (167)
Michigan
B10
12-6
2.951
0.500 (43)
Pittsburgh
ACC
12-6
2.895
0.904 (12)
2 Seeds
Col Charleston
CAA
15-3
2.722
-0.17 (143)
Wake Forest
ACC
10-7
2.694
1.131 (2)
Illinois
B10
12-6
2.659
0.493 (45)
Rhode Island
A10
10-6
2.607
0.366 (61)
3 Seeds
NC State
ACC
12-5
2.579
0.392 (57)
Alabama
SEC
10-6
2.548
0.488 (46)
Houston
AAC
14-5
2.535
-0.17 (144)
Oklahoma St
B12
10-7
2.469
0.743 (25)
4 Seeds
Tennessee
SEC
9-8
2.451
0.967 (7)
ETSU
SC
14-4
2.394
-0.73 (281)
Memphis
AAC
13-5
2.360
-0.19 (151)
Iowa
B10
11-7
2.268
0.388 (58)
5 Seeds
Nebraska
B10
9-8
2.251
0.977 (6)
Penn St
B10
11-7
2.143
0.582 (34)
Mississippi St
SEC
12-4
2.128
-0.28 (170)
La Salle
A10
9-5
2.102
0.529 (38)
6 Seeds
Boise St
MWC
11-5
2.039
-0.12 (130)
Georgetown
BE
10-8
2.027
0.792 (21)
Syracuse
ACC
11-7
1.999
0.298 (72)
Georgia Tech
ACC
10-6
1.938
0.324 (66)
7 Seeds
Providence
BE
12-7
1.800
0.443 (49)
BYU
WCC
13-6
1.748
-0.09 (125)
Texas A&M
SEC
9-7
1.644
0.632 (30)
UCF
AAC
12-4
1.614
-0.34 (186)
8 Seeds
Oakland
HL
14-4
1.513
-0.76 (285)
Mississippi
SEC
10-7
1.501
0.911 (11)
Richmond
A10
11-6
1.469
0.085 (98)
Vanderbilt
SEC
8-9
1.447
0.953 (9)


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