Bracketology


Tournament Bracket

Welcome to our Bracketology page! Here we plan to prep you for everything that will take place during March Madness! To come up with our bracketology predictions, we use a combination of variables including our own NCAA college basketball ratings, RPI, strength of schedule (SOS), and few other factors to come up with the Bracket Rating. As is customary with the NCAA tournament, we also include the automatic qualifiers which are the champions from the conference tournaments. If the conference champion hasn’t yet been determined, then the highest rated team is predicted to be the champion. All of the factors that we use are key indicators that are very good predictors of which teams will make the final tournament.

Note that below there are 68 teams that make the NCAA tournament, and the winners of each conference are automatically included in the tournament. Because there are four play-in games, there are 2 seed groups that will have more than 4 teams.

Early in the season (pre-January) a lot of the teams may appear to have some strange seedings. Before teams get into conference play, there is a lot of projection that needs to be done to seed the teams. As we get into January and February, the projections are slowly worked out of the equation and only actual results are used.

* denotes that the team gets an automatic bid due to winning their conference.
# denotes first round play-in game

Final: Updated on 3/17/2024 @ 5:00pm ET.

Bracketology – NCAA Tournament – Bubble Teams

Last Four In First Four Out Next Four Out
Colorado
FL Atlantic
Michigan St
Texas A&M
St John’s
Virginia
Indiana St
Villanova
Pittsburgh
Seton Hall
Wake Forest
Providence

The team listed at the top of the “Last Four In” is the most vulnerable to miss the tournament.

Bracketology – 2024 NCAA Tournament Seeding Predictions

Projected Seed Team Conf Record Rating SOS (Rank)
1 Seeds
Connecticut
BE*
31-3
12.31
0.934 (75)
Purdue
B10
29-4
11.98
1.504 (3)
Houston
B12
30-4
10.92
1.237 (15)
North Carolina
ACC
27-7
9.665
1.222 (17)
2 Seeds
Tennessee
SEC
24-8
9.596
1.387 (6)
Arizona
P12
25-8
9.250
1.229 (16)
Iowa St
B12*
27-7
9.043
1.015 (57)
Marquette
BE
25-9
8.650
1.353 (9)
3 Seeds
Illinois
B10*
26-8
8.032
1.200 (23)
Auburn
SEC*
27-7
8.028
1.115 (39)
Baylor
B12
23-10
8.006
1.369 (7)
Creighton
BE
23-9
7.989
1.134 (36)
4 Seeds
Duke
ACC
24-8
7.888
0.955 (71)
Kentucky
SEC
23-9
7.763
1.087 (44)
Kansas
B12
22-10
7.704
1.401 (5)
Alabama
SEC
21-11
7.263
1.530 (1)
5 Seeds
BYU
B12
23-10
6.436
0.995 (62)
San Diego St
MWC
24-10
6.425
1.095 (42)
Wisconsin
B10
22-13
6.390
1.496 (4)
Texas Tech
B12
23-10
6.013
1.125 (37)
6 Seeds
South Carolina
SEC
26-7
5.877
0.877 (82)
St Mary’s CA
WCC*
26-7
5.830
0.519 (99)
Utah St
MWC
27-6
5.803
0.701 (87)
Florida
SEC
24-11
5.768
1.154 (31)
7 Seeds
Washington St
P12
24-9
5.745
0.855 (83)
Clemson
ACC
21-11
5.705
1.119 (38)
Nevada
MWC
26-7
5.530
0.659 (89)
Gonzaga
WCC
25-7
5.519
0.470 (102)
8 Seeds
Nebraska
B10
23-10
5.485
1.017 (56)
Boise St
MWC
22-10
5.442
1.004 (60)
Texas
B12
20-12
5.338
1.113 (40)
Dayton
A10
24-7
5.279
0.674 (88)
9 Seeds
Colorado St
MWC
24-10
5.105
0.981 (67)
New Mexico
MWC*
26-9
5.084
0.808 (85)
Mississippi St
SEC
21-13
4.896
1.251 (14)
Northwestern
B10
21-11
4.884
1.034 (52)
10 Seeds
Oklahoma
Big 12
20-12
4.860
1.015 (58)
TCU
Big 12
21-12
4.842
0.881 (80)
Texas A&M
SEC#
20-14
4.824
1.217 (18)
Michigan St
Big Ten#
19-14
4.747
1.361 (8)
FL Atlantic
AAC#
25-8
4.690
0.644 (90)
Colorado
Pac-12#
24-10
4.649
0.983 (66)
11 Seeds
Drake
MVC*
28-6
4.517
0.218 (123)
Oregon
P12*
23-11
4.318
1.055 (48)
NC State
ACC*
22-14
3.739
0.985 (65)
Grand Canyon
WAC*
29-4
3.438
-0.08 (170)
12 Seeds
James Madison
SBC*
31-3
3.289
-0.47 (259)
McNeese St
SLC*
30-3
2.631
-0.89 (340)
Duquesne
A10*
24-11
2.330
0.562 (95)
UAB
AAC*
23-11
1.933
0.535 (98)
13 Seeds
Yale
Ivy*
22-9
1.827
0.054 (146)
Samford
SC*
29-5
1.649
-0.34 (228)
Col Charleston
CAA*
27-7
1.504
-0.26 (214)
Vermont
AEC*
28-6
1.166
-0.41 (246)
14 Seeds
Akron
MAC*
24-10
0.682
-0.23 (204)
Morehead St
OVC*
26-8
-0.20
-0.75 (318)
Colgate
PL*
25-9
-0.23
-0.77 (320)
Oakland
HL*
23-11
-0.90
-0.23 (205)
15 Seeds
WKU
CUSA*
22-11
-1.49
-0.23 (207)
S Dakota St
SL*
22-12
-1.61
-0.39 (241)
Long Beach St
BWC*
21-14
-2.82
-0.17 (187)
Longwood
BSo*
21-13
-2.88
-0.60 (290)
16 Seeds
St Peter’s
MAAC*
19-13
-3.72
-0.71 (310)
Stetson
ASC*
22-12
-4.26
-0.37 (237)
Montana St
BSC*#
17-17
-5.88
-0.44 (253)
Grambling
SWAC*#
20-14
-6.04
-0.69 (307)
Howard
MEAC*#
18-16
-6.06
-0.84 (328)
Wagner
NEC*#
16-15
-9.35
-1.19 (360)

There are currently eleven teams that are ineligible for the 2024 tournament due to various reasons. Bellarmine, Le Moyne, Lindenwood, Queens, St. Thomas, Southern Indiana, Stonehill, Tarleton State, Texas A&M-Commerce, UC San Diego, Utah Tech.

Bracketology – 2024 NIT Tournament Bracket Predictions

For the hardcore college basketball fan, we have now introduced bracketology for the NIT tournament (otherwise known as NITology). The NIT takes the next 32 best teams that did not make the NCAA tournament.

All regular season champions that did not win their conference tournament used to automatically qualify for the National Invitation Tournament (NIT). However, this is no longer the case starting in 2024. Now, the two teams with the highest NET rating from six conferences (ACC, Big 10, Big 12, Big East, Pac-12 and SEC) will get auto bids and will be a host school.

* denotes that the team gets a bid and will host a first round game due to the new 2024 selection rules.

Seed Team Conf Record Bracket Rating SOS (Rank)
1 Seeds
St John’s
BE*
20-13
4.619
1.163 (28)
Virginia
ACC*
23-10
4.547
0.914 (77)
Indiana St
MVC
28-6
4.364
0.090 (138)
Villanova
BE*
18-15
4.285
1.203 (21)
2 Seeds
Pittsburgh
ACC*
22-11
4.265
0.883 (79)
Seton Hall
BE
20-12
4.173
1.055 (49)
Wake Forest
ACC
20-13
4.119
0.935 (74)
Providence
BE
21-13
3.907
1.079 (45)
3 Seeds
Ohio St
B10*
20-13
3.854
1.135 (34)
Cincinnati
B12*
20-14
3.778
1.033 (53)
Utah
P12*
19-14
3.456
1.168 (27)
Iowa
B10*
18-14
3.427
1.190 (23)
4 Seeds
UCF
B12*
17-15
3.411
1.040 (50)
LSU
SEC*
17-15
3.373
0.953 (72)
Georgia
SEC*
17-16
3.352
1.139 (33)
Washington
P12*
17-15
3.270
1.091 (42)
Top 4 Unseeded
South Florida
AAC
24-7
3.210
0.150 (133)
Kansas St
B12
19-14
3.127
1.217 (19)
Princeton
Ivy
24-4
3.036
-0.10 (175)
Butler
BE
18-14
3.018
1.171 (26)
Next 4 Unseeded
Richmond
A10
23-9
2.949
0.279 (118)
Virginia Tech
ACC
18-14
2.839
0.987 (64)
Syracuse
ACC
20-12
2.670
1.153 (31)
Bradley
MVC
22-11
2.546
0.345 (108)
Next 4 Unseeded
San Francisco
WCC
23-10
2.468
0.077 (142)
Loyola-Chicago
A10
23-9
2.411
0.335 (109)
UNLV
MWC
19-12
2.358
0.898 (78)
VCU
A10
22-12
2.207
0.548 (96)
Last 4 In
Appalachian St
SBC
27-6
1.914
-0.18 (189)
UC Irvine
BWC
24-9
1.845
-0.08 (168)
SMU
AAC
20-12
1.819
0.370 (107)
Cornell
Ivy
22-7
1.785
-0.16 (183)