Bracketology


Tournament Bracket

Welcome to our Bracketology page! Here we plan to prep you for everything that will take place during March Madness! To come up with our bracketology predictions, we use a combination of variables including our own NCAA college basketball ratings, RPI, strength of schedule (SOS), and few other factors to come up with the Bracket Rating. As is customary with the NCAA tournament, we also include the automatic qualifiers which are the champions from the conference tournaments. If the conference champion hasn’t yet been determined, then the highest rated team is predicted to be the champion. All of the factors that we use are key indicators that are very good predictors of which teams will make the final tournament.

Note that below there are 68 teams that make the NCAA tournament, and the winners of each conference are automatically included in the tournament. Because there are four play-in games, there are 2 seed groups that will have more than 4 teams.

Early in the season (pre-January) a lot of the teams may appear to have some strange seedings. Before teams get into conference play, there is a lot of projection that needs to be done to seed the teams. As we get into January and February, the projections are slowly worked out of the equation and only actual results are used.

* denotes that the team gets an automatic bid due to winning their conference.
# denotes first round play-in game

Updated on 2/14/2019.

Bracketology – NCAA Tournament – Bubble Teams

Last Four In First Four Out Next Four Out
Nebraska
Toledo
Temple
Arizona St
Utah St
UNC Greensboro
Oklahoma
San Francisco
Butler
Furman
Arkansas
Davidson


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Bracketology – 2019 NCAA Tournament Seeding Predictions

Projected Seed Team Conf Record Bracket Rating SOS (Rank)
1 Seeds
Duke
ACC*
22-2
17.14
1.155 (11)
Virginia
ACC
21-2
15.21
0.866 (33)
Gonzaga
WCC*
23-2
13.68
0.441 (72)
Tennessee
SEC*
23-1
13.56
0.502 (67)
2 Seeds
Michigan St
Big Ten*
20-5
13.15
1.162 (9)
Kentucky
SEC
20-4
12.52
0.948 (21)
Michigan
Big Ten
22-3
12.27
0.772 (44)
Kansas
Big 12
19-6
12.22
1.536 (1)
3 Seeds
North Carolina
ACC
19-5
11.53
1.125 (12)
Purdue
Big Ten
17-7
11.33
1.312 (3)
Houston
AAC*
23-1
11.01
0.265 (82)
LSU
SEC
20-4
11.00
0.918 (27)
4 Seeds
Marquette
Big East
21-4
10.86
0.669 (52)
Kansas St
Big 12
19-5
9.907
0.952 (20)
Texas Tech
Big 12*
20-5
9.678
0.664 (53)
Nevada
MWC*
23-1
9.639
0.065 (108)
5 Seeds
Florida St
ACC
19-5
9.449
0.811 (39)
Maryland
Big Ten
19-6
9.443
0.932 (24)
Villanova
Big East*
20-5
9.229
0.854 (35)
Iowa St
Big 12
18-6
9.109
0.796 (42)
6 Seeds
Louisville
ACC
17-8
9.053
1.125 (13)
Wisconsin
Big Ten
17-8
8.887
1.223 (7)
Virginia Tech
ACC
19-5
8.710
0.488 (68)
Iowa
Big Ten
19-5
8.570
0.725 (49)
7 Seeds
Mississippi St
SEC
17-7
8.421
0.945 (23)
Mississippi
SEC
17-7
7.106
0.742 (47)
TCU
Big 12
17-7
6.975
0.915 (28)
Texas
Big 12
14-11
6.867
1.264 (6)
8 Seeds
Buffalo
MAC*
21-3
6.864
0.122 (102)
Ohio St
Big Ten
16-7
6.759
0.819 (38)
Auburn
SEC
16-8
6.726
0.697 (51)
Cincinnati
AAC
20-4
6.665
0.257 (84)
9 Seeds
Baylor
Big 12
16-8
6.634
0.659 (54)
Washington
Pac-12*
19-5
6.568
0.592 (59)
Syracuse
ACC
17-8
6.016
0.759 (46)
NC State
ACC
18-7
5.783
0.284 (80)
10 Seeds
Wofford
Southern*
21-4
5.718
-0.31 (188)
Alabama
SEC
15-9
5.627
1.036 (16)
St John’s
Big East
18-7
5.598
0.558 (62)
Minnesota
Big Ten
16-9
5.565
0.989 (18)
11 Seeds
Clemson
ACC
15-9
5.354
0.852 (36)
VA Commonwealth
A-10*
18-6
5.055
0.342 (78)
Seton Hall
Big East
15-9
4.835
0.910 (29)
UCF
AAC
18-5
4.725
0.203 (91)
12 Seeds
Arizona St
Pac-12#
16-8
4.471
0.508 (65)
Temple
AAC#
18-7
4.471
0.531 (63)
Lipscomb
ASUN*
20-5
4.437
-0.43 (217)
Toledo
MAC#
20-4
4.123
-0.18 (149)
Nebraska
Big Ten#
14-11
4.081
0.856 (34)
Belmont
OVC*
19-4
4.014
-0.30 (185)
13 Seeds
New Mexico St
WAC*
20-4
3.805
-0.28 (178)
Yale
Ivy*
15-4
3.540
-0.14 (141)
Hofstra
Colonial*
21-4
3.165
-0.57 (258)
Vermont
AEC*
20-5
2.804
-0.46 (229)
14 Seeds
Old Dominion
CUSA*
20-6
2.666
-0.28 (180)
UC Irvine
Big West*
21-5
2.411
-0.23 (161)
N Kentucky
Horizon*
20-6
1.822
-0.70 (282)
Radford
Big South*
18-7
1.814
-0.50 (243)
15 Seeds
Georgia St
Sun Belt*
17-8
1.799
0.047 (109)
S Dakota St
Summit*
20-6
1.733
-0.78 (306)
Montana
Big Sky*
17-6
1.167
-0.77 (303)
Bucknell
Patriot*
17-8
0.947
-0.12 (137)
16 Seeds
Loyola-Chicago
MVC*
16-10
0.571
-0.12 (136)
Sam Houston St
Southland*
17-8
0.431
-0.83 (315)
TX Southern
SWAC*#
12-11
-3.12
-0.47 (233)
Norfolk St
MEAC*#
14-11
-4.07
-1.01 (343)
F Dickinson
NEC*#
12-12
-4.60
-0.80 (309)
Rider
MAAC*#
12-13
-6.43
-0.45 (226)

There is currently one team that is ineligible for the 2019 tournament due to APR. That team is Alabama A&M.


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Bracketology – 2019 NIT Tournament Bracket Predictions

For the hardcore college basketball fan, we have now introduced bracketology for the NIT tournament (otherwise known as NITology). The NIT takes the next 32 best teams that did not make the NCAA tournament.

All regular season champions that did not win their conference tournament automatically qualify for the National Invitation Tournament (NIT). It is important to note that early predictions will be flawed because of this rule. Typically, there are about seven to nine teams that win their conference in the regular season but don’t win their conference tournament and end up in the NIT. So, in early predictions, if your team is a seven or eight seed, then it is likely they won’t make the tournament because of these auto qualifiers.

* denotes that the team gets an automatic bid due to winning their conference in the regular season.

Seed Team Conf Record Bracket Rating SOS (Rank)
1 Seeds
Utah St
MWC
19-6
4.047
-0.22 (159)
UNC Greensboro
Southern
22-3
4.036
-0.48 (237)
Oklahoma
Big 12
15-10
3.788
1.335 (2)
San Francisco
WCC
18-6
3.768
-0.05 (122)
2 Seeds
Butler
Big East
14-11
3.668
0.904 (30)
Furman
Southern
20-5
3.628
-0.52 (246)
Arkansas
SEC
14-10
3.602
0.878 (32)
Davidson
A-10
18-6
3.442
0.040 (111)
3 Seeds
Fresno St
MWC
18-6
3.169
-0.25 (168)
Liberty
ASUN
22-5
3.143
-0.88 (327)
St Mary’s CA
WCC
15-10
3.065
0.372 (74)
ETSU
Southern
19-7
3.045
-0.25 (169)
4 Seeds
Indiana
Big Ten
13-11
2.996
1.118 (14)
Oregon
Pac-12
15-9
2.922
0.354 (76)
Murray St
OVC
19-4
2.794
-0.78 (305)
Florida
SEC
13-11
2.770
1.156 (10)
5 Seeds
Dayton
A-10
16-8
2.661
0.176 (93)
Oregon St
Pac-12
15-8
2.400
0.238 (87)
Bowling Green
MAC
17-7
2.360
-0.42 (216)
South Florida
AAC
17-7
2.340
-0.13 (139)
6 Seeds
South Carolina
SEC
12-12
2.257
0.964 (19)
Memphis
AAC
15-10
2.250
0.469 (70)
Providence
Big East
14-11
2.127
0.717 (50)
Georgetown
Big East
15-10
2.098
0.475 (69)
7 Seeds
Texas St
Sun Belt
19-5
1.989
-0.62 (264)
BYU
WCC
16-10
1.964
0.229 (89)
Col Charleston
Colonial
20-6
1.963
-0.38 (204)
Utah Valley
WAC
16-7
1.858
-0.41 (212)
8 Seeds
Colorado
Pac-12
15-9
1.823
0.207 (90)
Quinnipiac
MAAC*
13-10
-3.46
-0.74 (292)
Prairie View
SWAC*
11-12
-4.64
-0.51 (244)
Robert Morris
NEC*
13-12
-5.09
-0.87 (323)