English Premier League Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for September 21, 2024

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Chelsea
West Ham United 		45.8%
27.7%		26.4%
+107
+250
+102
+240
1.43
1.06		2.49
o3¼+103
u3+118
o3-125
u3+105
Newcastle United
Fulham 		37.3%
34.4%		28.2%
+155
+184
+145
+180
1.19
1.13		2.32
o2¾-112
u2¾+102
o2½-140
u3-125
Volatility Bet Value Active
Bournemouth
Liverpool 		6.7%
80.3%		13.0%
+815
-308
+750
-320
0.66
2.70		3.36
o3½-106
u3½-105
o3½-105
u3½-112
Everton
Leicester City 		35.6%
37.3%		27.1%
+198
+150
+202
+155
1.22
1.26		2.48
o2½-106
u2½-105
o2½-107
u2½+100
Brentford
Tottenham 		10.0%
74.1%		15.9%
+465
-178
+455
-182
0.80
2.48		3.28
o3¼-107
u3½-131
o3½+115
u3½-130
Ipswich Town
Southampton 		22.1%
54.0%		23.9%
+219
+132
+214
+125
1.00
1.71		2.71
o2½-115
u2½+104
o2½-125
u2½+110
Wolverhampton
Aston Villa 		14.0%
65.7%		20.4%
+458
-172
+430
-175
0.80
2.01		2.81
o3-112
u3+102
o3-105
u3-110
Manchester United
Crystal Palace 		35.1%
36.2%		28.7%
+144
+185
+140
+175
1.12
1.14		2.26
o3+105
u3-115
o3+105
u3-120
Games for Sep 20, 2024
Games for Sep 22, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Newcastle United
Wolverhampton		40.1%
31.3%		28.6%
+102
+269
+100
+260
2
1		-0.73528-0.74360-0.91389
Arsenal
Tottenham		36.6%
36.5%		26.9%
+158
+181
+140
+185
1
0		-0.97262-0.91980-1.00553
Chelsea
Bournemouth		48.5%
25.3%		26.2%
+123
+208
+120
+213
1
0		-0.83432-0.82166-0.72443
Everton
Aston Villa		17.7%
60.8%		21.6%
+440
-145
+440
-145
2
3		-0.55426-0.55741-0.49832
Leicester City
Crystal Palace		17.0%
61.5%		21.5%
+440
-148
+441
-160
2
2		-1.41964-1.44477-1.53656
Ipswich Town
Brighton and Hove Albion		10.8%
71.3%		17.9%
+550
-203
+560
-210
0
0		-1.60028-1.60525-1.71864
Brentford
Manchester City		3.6%
87.7%		8.7%
+1350
-460
+1300
-576
1
2		-0.22000-0.20383-0.13117
West Ham United
Fulham		28.5%
45.0%		26.5%
+226
+135
+214
+135
1
1		-1.24981-1.27165-1.32772
Nottingham Forest
Liverpool		5.1%
83.3%		11.6%
+1225
-403
+1125
-450
1
0		-2.60045-2.54938-2.97123
Manchester United
Southampton		49.3%
26.1%		24.6%
-122
+320
-125
+340
3
0		-0.62972-0.62008-0.70739
Liverpool
Manchester United		46.0%
28.1%		25.8%
-106
+265
-110
+260
3
0		-0.69635-0.69111-0.77618
Crystal Palace
Chelsea		13.9%
65.3%		20.7%
+415
-152
+400
-160
1
1		-1.50593-1.50544-1.57330
Tottenham
Newcastle United		35.7%
37.1%		27.2%
+165
+152
+165
+145
1
2		-0.94814-0.93718-0.99212
Manchester City
West Ham United		74.1%
9.9%		16.1%
-238
+655
-259
+640
3
1		-0.37233-0.37077-0.30040
Fulham
Ipswich Town		36.6%
34.7%		28.7%
+140
+210
+135
+205
1
1		-1.27125-1.27654-1.24991
Bournemouth
Everton		23.6%
51.4%		25.0%
+144
+207
+145
+196
3
2		-0.91629-0.93052-1.44274
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 09/15/24
#TeamWLTPtsWin PLChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Manchester City (4-0-0, 12 pts)25.35.57.283.177.0%99.1%0.4%0.0%
2Arsenal (3-0-1, 10 pts)20.77.99.471.412.8%84.5%7.4%0.0%
3Newcastle United (3-0-1, 10 pts)15.611.810.557.40.1%17.2%11.9%0.7%
4Liverpool (3-1-0, 9 pts)20.58.98.570.28.5%80.7%7.2%0.0%
5Aston Villa (3-1-0, 9 pts)16.012.29.857.80.4%19.9%11.9%0.7%
6Brighton and Hove Albion (2-0-2, 8 pts)14.611.911.555.30.0%13.3%10.5%0.7%
7Nottingham Forest (2-0-2, 8 pts)11.115.811.244.40.1%0.8%0.8%18.0%
8Chelsea (2-1-1, 7 pts)17.010.610.461.40.5%37.0%16.8%0.1%
9Manchester United (2-2-0, 6 pts)15.413.29.455.60.5%15.3%11.1%1.1%
10Brentford (2-2-0, 6 pts)12.316.39.446.20.0%1.4%1.8%12.2%
11Bournemouth (1-1-2, 5 pts)11.315.211.545.40.0%1.2%1.6%13.7%
12Fulham (1-1-2, 5 pts)11.215.511.345.00.0%1.1%1.5%14.1%
13Tottenham (1-2-1, 4 pts)16.011.610.458.40.1%25.6%13.3%0.3%
14West Ham United (1-2-1, 4 pts)11.915.510.646.30.0%1.0%1.7%11.9%
15Leicester City (0-2-2, 2 pts)9.217.611.238.70.0%0.0%0.2%40.7%
16Crystal Palace (0-2-2, 2 pts)11.215.111.645.30.0%1.4%1.2%15.2%
17Ipswich Town (0-2-2, 2 pts)8.618.311.136.80.0%0.0%0.0%54.5%
18Wolverhampton (0-3-1, 1 pts)9.917.610.540.30.0%0.2%0.3%37.1%
19Southampton (0-4-0, 0 pts)9.119.79.236.50.0%0.0%0.0%56.1%
20Everton (0-4-0, 0 pts)11.117.69.342.60.0%0.3%0.4%22.9%

Predictions Methodology

The English Premier League projections are based on our proprietary algorithm which we use to project out soccer matches. The EPL is a twenty team league which plays 38 games through out the season. Currently, the top four teams receive a draw to the Champions League and the fifth place team receives a draw to Europa League. Each year, the 18th through 20th placed team gets relegated to the English Championship division.