English Premier League Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for March 19, 2024

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Games for Mar 18, 2024
Games for Mar 20, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML
Final
Goals
Sportsbook
Log Loss
DRatings
Log Loss
Aston Villa
West Ham United
26.0%
48.7%
25.3%
+183
+148
+170
+160
1
1
-1.34079-1.33325-1.37543
Tottenham
Fulham
49.8%
25.6%
24.6%
+104
+243
+108
+240
0
3
-1.25787-1.25460-1.36227
Nottingham Forest
Luton Town
38.7%
32.1%
29.1%
+165
+173
+161
+170
1
1
-1.31819-1.30155-1.23381
Brentford
Burnley
26.9%
45.9%
27.1%
+123
+221
+125
+215
1
2
-1.19465-1.18633-0.77829
Luton Town
Bournemouth
13.1%
66.9%
19.9%
+468
-187
+475
-200
3
4
-0.45798-0.44915-0.40139
Newcastle United
Chelsea
19.8%
56.7%
23.5%
+305
-116
+290
-120
2
3
-0.64074-0.65089-0.56754
Manchester City
Liverpool
37.5%
35.0%
27.5%
+105
+249
+100
+240
1
1
-1.40842-1.41799-1.29226
Nottingham Forest
Brighton and Hove Albion
12.5%
67.7%
19.8%
+440
-154
+418
-140
0
1
-0.51896-0.54898-0.39044
Burnley
West Ham United
16.6%
61.5%
21.9%
+440
-152
+440
-160
2
2
-1.45013-1.45453-1.52083
Tottenham
Aston Villa
37.5%
35.8%
26.7%
+168
+150
+155
+155
4
0
-1.00871-0.97228-0.98008
Brentford
Arsenal
7.6%
78.2%
14.2%
+1262
-463
+1150
-500
1
2
-0.22427-0.23052-0.24616
Sheffield United
Bournemouth
16.9%
60.1%
23.0%
+745
-260
+740
-295
2
2
-1.76358-1.78821-1.46981
Luton Town
Crystal Palace
8.6%
75.1%
16.3%
+332
-110
+350
-115
1
1
-1.36877-1.35507-1.81253
Fulham
Wolverhampton
24.6%
48.7%
26.6%
+198
+147
+190
+150
1
2
-0.93242-0.95368-0.71867
Everton
Manchester United
13.8%
66.9%
19.4%
+320
-114
+315
-120
0
2
-0.65472-0.65126-0.40266
Arsenal
Sheffield United
72.6%
10.0%
17.3%
-550
+1581
-585
+1600
6
0
-0.20034-0.19200-0.31994
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 03/11/24
#TeamWLTPtsWin PLChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Arsenal (20-4-4, 64 pts)24.96.46.781.317.7%99.8%0.2%0.0%
2Liverpool (19-2-7, 64 pts)24.73.99.583.534.8%99.9%0.1%0.0%
3Manchester City (19-3-6, 63 pts)25.64.57.984.647.4%99.9%0.1%0.0%
4Aston Villa (17-7-4, 55 pts)20.211.06.867.50.0%26.7%53.5%0.0%
5Tottenham (16-6-5, 53 pts)20.89.37.970.30.1%69.6%23.2%0.0%
6Manchester United (15-11-2, 47 pts)19.313.94.862.60.0%3.2%15.8%0.0%
7West Ham United (12-9-7, 43 pts)15.512.89.756.10.0%0.2%1.1%0.0%
8Brighton and Hove Albion (11-8-9, 42 pts)14.212.111.754.30.0%0.0%0.4%0.0%
9Wolverhampton (12-11-5, 41 pts)15.115.27.852.90.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%
10Newcastle United (12-12-4, 40 pts)16.414.96.755.90.0%0.2%0.7%0.0%
11Chelsea (11-10-6, 39 pts)16.212.89.057.60.0%0.5%4.8%0.0%
12Fulham (10-13-5, 35 pts)13.217.47.447.10.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
13Bournemouth (8-11-8, 32 pts)11.215.711.144.60.0%0.0%0.0%0.2%
14Everton (8-13-7, 31 pts)11.316.99.843.70.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%
15Crystal Palace (7-13-8, 29 pts)10.317.110.641.60.0%0.0%0.0%1.1%
16Brentford (7-16-5, 26 pts)10.519.87.839.20.0%0.0%0.0%3.1%
17Nottingham Forest (6-16-6, 24 pts)8.820.78.535.00.0%0.0%0.0%19.5%
18Luton Town (5-16-6, 21 pts)7.122.28.730.10.0%0.0%0.0%79.1%
19Burnley (3-20-5, 14 pts)6.024.27.825.80.0%0.0%0.0%97.7%
20Sheffield United (3-20-5, 14 pts)5.125.47.522.70.0%0.0%0.0%99.2%

Predictions Methodology

The English Premier League projections are based on our proprietary algorithm which we use to project out soccer matches. The EPL is a twenty team league which plays 38 games through out the season. Currently, the top four teams receive a draw to the Champions League and the fifth place team receives a draw to Europa League. Each year, the 18th through 20th placed team gets relegated to the English Championship division.