German Bundesliga Predictions

Updated 2 hr ago

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Time	Teams	Win	Draw	Best ML	Final Goals	Sportsbook Log Loss	DRatings Log Loss
05/13/2023 01:30 PM	Schalke 04 Bayern Munich	3.9% 88.0%	8.1%	+1700 -668 +1600 -755	0 6	-0.16124-0.16588	-0.12805
05/13/2023 01:30 PM	Augsburg VfL Bochum	31.3% 43.2%	25.5%	+215 +129 +220 +125	2 3	-0.85125-0.83993	-0.83965
05/13/2023 01:30 PM	Freiburg Union Berlin	47.2% 27.5%	25.3%	+315 +113 +307 +110	2 4	-0.77881-0.78054	-1.29117
05/13/2023 01:30 PM	Mainz 05 Eintracht Frankfurt	23.8% 53.8%	22.4%	+250 +111 +240 +105	0 3	-0.77405-0.76462	-0.61982
05/07/2023 03:30 PM	Wolfsburg Dortmund	10.8% 73.6%	15.6%	+465 -197 +475 -200	0 6	-0.44083-0.43889	-0.30601
05/06/2023 04:30 PM	Bayern Munich Werder Bremen	67.2% 14.7%	18.1%	-372 +925 -400 +850	2 1	-0.26545-0.27232	-0.39800
05/06/2023 01:30 PM	RB Leipzig Freiburg	36.6% 36.7%	26.7%	-111 +319 -115 +302	1 0	-0.66324-0.67080	-1.00474
05/06/2023 01:30 PM	VfL Bochum Borussia Monchengladbach	12.9% 70.2%	16.9%	+250 +110 +240 +106	0 2	-0.76402-0.76722	-0.35401
05/06/2023 01:30 PM	VfB Stuttgart Hertha BSC	30.5% 44.5%	25.0%	+139 +214 +135 +205	1 2	-1.16264-1.15116	-0.80979
05/06/2023 01:30 PM	Eintracht Frankfurt Hoffenheim	25.6% 51.9%	22.5%	+171 +152 +165 +148	1 3	-0.94559-0.95443	-0.65629
05/06/2023 01:30 PM	Union Berlin Augsburg	24.9% 51.0%	24.1%	+140 +238 +133 +225	0 1	-1.23330-1.22227	-0.67378
05/05/2023 06:30 PM	FC Koln Bayer 04 Leverkusen	18.9% 60.7%	20.4%	+477 -162 +434 -165	2 1	-1.77602-1.72485	-1.66484
05/05/2023 06:30 PM	Schalke 04 Mainz 05	16.5% 63.9%	19.5%	+414 -144 +400 -150	3 2	-1.66184-1.65648	-1.80066
04/30/2023 03:30 PM	Mainz 05 Wolfsburg	32.5% 41.1%	26.3%	+211 +129 +210 +125	0 3	-0.85665-0.86003	-0.88809
04/30/2023 01:30 PM	Hertha BSC Bayern Munich	4.7% 86.2%	9.1%	+2400 -1025 +2575 -1000	0 2	-0.12299-0.12468	-0.14826
04/29/2023 04:30 PM	Werder Bremen Schalke 04	36.6% 37.3%	26.0%	+189 +143 +190 +135	1 2	-0.91113-0.89779	-0.98604

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Season Prediction Results

Time Period

	Games	Record (Pct)	No Pick	Log Loss Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model. More on Log Loss	+/-
Sportsbooks	2	1-0-1 (0.750)	0	-0.71816
Sportsbooks	2	1-0-1 (0.750)	0	-0.71803
DRatings	2	1-0-1 (0.750)	0	-0.84148	-0.12332 -0.12346

Predictions Methodology

The game and score predictions above do not account for injuries, weather or any other random factor that may be cause the outcome to be swayed. See my disclaimer page for information on the benefits and downfalls about these Bundesliga predictions: disclaimer

The German Bundesliga pits all 18 teams against each other in a home-and-home series for a total of 34 games in a season. The top four teams qualify for the Champions League, and the fifth and sixth teams in the final standings qualify for Europa league. The bottom two teams in the Bundesliga get relegated, while the 16th ranked team plays the third ranked team in 2. Bundesliga to determine who will play in the top division for the next season.

These game predictions should be used for entertainment purposes only. The Season Projection for the Bundesliga is based on a simulation with 1,000 iterations.