German Bundesliga Predictions

Updated

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Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Union Berlin		51.5%
24.8%		23.7%
+163
+197
+147
+191
0
0		-1.20511-1.25488-1.44062
Freiburg
FC Koln		32.3%
42.3%		25.4%
+197
+152
+193
+145
1
0		-1.11170-1.12184-1.13122
Borussia Monchengladbach
VfB Stuttgart		30.3%
45.2%		24.5%
+374
-137
+365
-130
1
2		-0.57485-0.59442-0.79405
Augsburg
Eintracht Frankfurt		14.1%
68.2%		17.7%
+460
-167
+440
-180
1
1		-1.54726-1.56189-1.73409
Hoffenheim
RB Leipzig		17.2%
63.4%		19.5%
+740
-265
+741
-275
0
1		-0.34544-0.34691-0.45648
Dortmund
VfL Bochum		64.8%
16.4%		18.8%
-210
+538
-230
+570
1
1		-1.68255-1.71725-1.66924
Union Berlin
Borussia Monchengladbach		14.9%
66.5%		18.6%
+200
+160
+200
+145
1
0		-1.11496-1.14662-1.90253
RB Leipzig
Bayer 04 Leverkusen		33.7%
40.5%		25.7%
+169
+174
+165
+160
0
2		-1.02619-0.99978-0.90283
Schalke 04
Freiburg		13.2%
69.2%		17.6%
+383
-121
+365
-120
0
4		-0.62478-0.64371-0.36865
Eintracht Frankfurt
Dortmund		16.3%
65.4%		18.3%
+433
-163
+396
-170
0
4		-0.49837-0.50569-0.42402
Werder Bremen
Hertha BSC		32.0%
42.8%		25.1%
+217
+141
+205
+135
4
2		-1.16970-1.15350-1.13856
Wolfsburg
VfL Bochum		37.5%
35.8%		26.7%
+126
+224
+121
+215
5
1		-0.83229-0.83961-0.97998
FC Koln
Hoffenheim		22.2%
56.3%		21.5%
+222
+137
+215
+124
3
1		-1.18741-1.19198-1.50539
Bayern Munich
Mainz 05		64.6%
16.1%		19.2%
-190
+545
-190
+465
1
3		-1.88677-1.77732-1.82375
VfB Stuttgart
Augsburg		35.4%
38.2%		26.4%
+126
+233
+119
+215
1
1		-1.31733-1.35174-1.33268
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Wolfsburg		41.6%
32.4%		26.0%
+155
+183
+155
+172
0
0		-1.30394-1.30759-1.34888
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks21-0-1 (0.750)0-0.71816 
Sportsbooks21-0-1 (0.750)0-0.71803 
DRatings21-0-1 (0.750)0-0.84148
-0.12332
-0.12346

Predictions Methodology

The game and score predictions above do not account for injuries, weather or any other random factor that may be cause the outcome to be swayed. See my disclaimer page for information on the benefits and downfalls about these Bundesliga predictions: disclaimer

The German Bundesliga pits all 18 teams against each other in a home-and-home series for a total of 34 games in a season. The top four teams qualify for the Champions League, and the fifth and sixth teams in the final standings qualify for Europa league. The bottom two teams in the Bundesliga get relegated, while the 16th ranked team plays the third ranked team in 2. Bundesliga to determine who will play in the top division for the next season.

These game predictions should be used for entertainment purposes only. The Season Projection for the Bundesliga is based on a simulation with 1,000 iterations.