German Bundesliga Predictions

Updated

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Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Werder Bremen
Eintracht Frankfurt		20.3%
58.9%		20.8%
+478
-168
+470
-180
0
2		-0.48414-0.48396-0.52946
FC Koln
VfB Stuttgart		28.3%
47.6%		24.1%
+238
+131
+210
+130
0
3		-0.85569-0.88230-0.74236
Freiburg
VfL Bochum		50.2%
25.8%		24.0%
+160
+189
+148
+200
2
0		-0.97745-0.93846-0.69003
RB Leipzig
Wolfsburg		51.9%
24.3%		23.8%
+130
+212
+125
+215
3
0		-0.85189-0.84690-0.65495
Bayern Munich
Borussia Monchengladbach		62.3%
18.0%		19.6%
-205
+575
-243
+550
2
3		-1.91501-1.92148-1.71319
Hoffenheim
Augsburg		44.8%
30.4%		24.7%
+169
+165
+155
+165
0
1		-0.99593-1.02151-1.18922
Eintracht Frankfurt
FC Koln		35.6%
39.2%		25.1%
+165
+182
+156
+175
0
3		-1.05426-1.05397-0.93629
Borussia Monchengladbach
Hertha BSC		37.0%
37.3%		25.7%
+156
+185
+145
+185
1
4		-1.06871-1.08877-0.98690
Union Berlin
RB Leipzig		17.4%
62.0%		20.6%
+405
-116
+400
-125
2
1		-1.63599-1.64990-1.74968
Dortmund
Werder Bremen		50.8%
26.3%		22.9%
-132
+365
-135
+325
2
0		-0.56819-0.59891-0.67769
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Hoffenheim		34.6%
40.2%		25.2%
+166
+171
+155
+170
3
1		-0.99707-0.97487-1.06022
Augsburg
Mainz 05		17.1%
62.6%		20.3%
+350
-121
+328
-125
1
3		-0.62500-0.63363-0.46874
VfB Stuttgart
Freiburg		19.0%
59.7%		21.3%
+285
+111
+280
+105
1
2		-0.76509-0.76529-0.51653
VfL Bochum
Bayern Munich		3.2%
89.7%		7.1%
+2093
-729
+1590
-740
0
3		-0.14865-0.17385-0.10908
Wolfsburg
Schalke 04		30.9%
43.6%		25.5%
+107
+275
+103
+280
0
0		-1.32418-1.32403-1.36771
Bayern Munich
Wolfsburg		71.9%
11.6%		16.5%
-170
+463
-175
+425
4
2		-0.48245-0.49989-0.32974
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks21-0-1 (0.750)0-0.71816 
Sportsbooks21-0-1 (0.750)0-0.71803 
DRatings21-0-1 (0.750)0-0.84148
-0.12332
-0.12346

Predictions Methodology

The game and score predictions above do not account for injuries, weather or any other random factor that may be cause the outcome to be swayed. See my disclaimer page for information on the benefits and downfalls about these Bundesliga predictions: disclaimer

The German Bundesliga pits all 18 teams against each other in a home-and-home series for a total of 34 games in a season. The top four teams qualify for the Champions League, and the fifth and sixth teams in the final standings qualify for Europa league. The bottom two teams in the Bundesliga get relegated, while the 16th ranked team plays the third ranked team in 2. Bundesliga to determine who will play in the top division for the next season.

These game predictions should be used for entertainment purposes only. The Season Projection for the Bundesliga is based on a simulation with 1,000 iterations.