German Bundesliga Predictions

Updated

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Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Hoffenheim
Hertha BSC		39.8%
35.0%		25.2%
+138
+195
+138
+185
1
1		-1.32731-1.34481-1.37670
Borussia Monchengladbach
Werder Bremen		33.4%
41.6%		25.0%
+153
+165
+150
+160
1
5		-1.00318-0.99956-0.87748
VfB Stuttgart
Wolfsburg		29.2%
45.5%		25.3%
+194
+155
+190
+150
2
3		-0.96643-0.95873-0.78730
Union Berlin
Eintracht Frankfurt		28.0%
47.7%		24.3%
+209
+145
+200
+140
0
2		-0.92422-0.91947-0.74028
Dortmund
FC Koln		49.8%
27.1%		23.1%
+125
+208
+125
+206
2
3		-1.15208-1.15563-1.30424
Mainz 05
Freiburg		22.9%
53.9%		23.2%
+245
+118
+246
+110
1
2		-0.81303-0.78777-0.61867
VfL Bochum
RB Leipzig		7.7%
79.2%		13.0%
+1050
-366
+950
-380
0
4		-0.26744-0.28068-0.23263
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Bayern Munich		8.7%
77.7%		13.5%
+666
-275
+650
-300
0
4		-0.34160-0.33647-0.25199
Freiburg
Hoffenheim		29.7%
45.5%		24.7%
+237
+121
+230
+120
0
0		-1.31766-1.30545-1.39647
FC Koln
VfL Bochum		33.5%
41.0%		25.5%
+110
+242
+115
+240
1
1		-1.36430-1.31729-1.36830
Wolfsburg
Union Berlin		34.0%
39.0%		27.0%
+295
+115
+285
+115
0
2		-0.78211-0.79297-0.94156
RB Leipzig
Borussia Monchengladbach		46.9%
28.8%		24.3%
+126
+215
+125
+200
0
3		-1.17717-1.14907-1.24459
Eintracht Frankfurt
VfB Stuttgart		31.4%
44.4%		24.2%
+187
+163
+185
+150
3
1		-1.07268-1.09133-1.15773
Bayern Munich
Augsburg		80.0%
7.5%		12.5%
-547
+1400
-670
+1450
0
1		-2.73091-2.79181-2.58947
Werder Bremen
Bayer 04 Leverkusen		6.9%
81.2%		11.9%
+412
-160
+390
-162
1
1		-1.54510-1.53007-2.13208
Schalke 04
Dortmund		5.6%
84.4%		10.1%
+613
-229
+625
-255
0
1		-0.38700-0.37826-0.16997
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks21-0-1 (0.750)0-0.71816 
Sportsbooks21-0-1 (0.750)0-0.71803 
DRatings21-0-1 (0.750)0-0.84148
-0.12332
-0.12346

Predictions Methodology

The game and score predictions above do not account for injuries, weather or any other random factor that may be cause the outcome to be swayed. See my disclaimer page for information on the benefits and downfalls about these Bundesliga predictions: disclaimer

The German Bundesliga pits all 18 teams against each other in a home-and-home series for a total of 34 games in a season. The top four teams qualify for the Champions League, and the fifth and sixth teams in the final standings qualify for Europa league. The bottom two teams in the Bundesliga get relegated, while the 16th ranked team plays the third ranked team in 2. Bundesliga to determine who will play in the top division for the next season.

These game predictions should be used for entertainment purposes only. The Season Projection for the Bundesliga is based on a simulation with 1,000 iterations.