German Bundesliga Predictions

Updated

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Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Hertha BSC
Mainz 05		17.6%
62.4%		20.0%
+345
-125
+350
-125
1
1		-1.41042-1.39457-1.61094
Borussia Monchengladbach
Freiburg		20.8%
57.3%		21.8%
+231
+120
+235
+115
0
0		-1.33492-1.33165-1.52221
Union Berlin
FC Koln		23.3%
53.7%		23.0%
+205
+150
+195
+145
1
0		-1.14119-1.12224-1.45659
VfL Bochum
Schalke 04		34.9%
39.1%		26.0%
+250
+115
+240
+107
1
3		-0.78281-0.77395-0.93925
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Hertha BSC		58.0%
20.8%		21.3%
-114
+296
-110
+290
2
2		-1.43974-1.40658-1.54726
Wolfsburg
Eintracht Frankfurt		23.7%
53.6%		22.7%
+300
-110
+298
-105
1
0		-1.41605-1.41096-1.44058
Mainz 05
Hoffenheim		23.3%
54.2%		22.4%
+190
+145
+190
+135
1
4		-0.92271-0.89708-0.61207
Dortmund
RB Leipzig		22.9%
55.2%		21.9%
+185
+144
+175
+138
0
3		-0.90577-0.91300-0.59410
VfB Stuttgart
Bayern Munich		3.8%
88.4%		7.8%
+1350
-446
+1400
-535
2
2		-2.06247-2.08522-2.55002
Augsburg
Werder Bremen		28.1%
47.5%		24.4%
+532
-200
+500
-185
1
0		-1.87640-1.82623-1.26997
Mainz 05
Borussia Monchengladbach		26.3%
50.0%		23.6%
+197
+135
+195
+133
1
0		-1.12055-1.12673-1.33450
Hertha BSC
Augsburg		29.5%
45.9%		24.6%
+177
+162
+185
+146
2
0		-1.05088-1.09754-1.22197
RB Leipzig
Eintracht Frankfurt		46.2%
29.7%		24.1%
+112
+244
+107
+245
0
4		-1.26411-1.28067-1.21513
Schalke 04
VfB Stuttgart		15.2%
66.1%		18.6%
+382
-138
+385
-145
1
1		-1.44172-1.43511-1.67975
Werder Bremen
VfL Bochum		21.0%
57.1%		21.9%
+130
+214
+125
+223
2
0		-0.85545-0.84227-1.55846
Bayern Munich
Union Berlin		78.1%
8.3%		13.6%
-260
+695
-280
+680
1
1		-1.74899-1.76545-1.99701
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks21-0-1 (0.750)0-0.71816 
Sportsbooks21-0-1 (0.750)0-0.71803 
DRatings21-0-1 (0.750)0-0.84148
-0.12332
-0.12346

Predictions Methodology

The game and score predictions above do not account for injuries, weather or any other random factor that may be cause the outcome to be swayed. See my disclaimer page for information on the benefits and downfalls about these Bundesliga predictions: disclaimer

The German Bundesliga pits all 18 teams against each other in a home-and-home series for a total of 34 games in a season. The top four teams qualify for the Champions League, and the fifth and sixth teams in the final standings qualify for Europa league. The bottom two teams in the Bundesliga get relegated, while the 16th ranked team plays the third ranked team in 2. Bundesliga to determine who will play in the top division for the next season.

These game predictions should be used for entertainment purposes only. The Season Projection for the Bundesliga is based on a simulation with 1,000 iterations.