German Bundesliga Predictions

Updated

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Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Freiburg
Bayer 04 Leverkusen		18.1%
61.1%		20.7%
+342
-119
+321
-124
3
2		-1.50869-1.48386-1.70672
FC Koln
Wolfsburg		22.6%
54.7%		22.7%
+235
+121
+240
+114
4
2		-1.24112-1.26595-1.48709
Hoffenheim
Dortmund		14.1%
69.0%		16.9%
+319
-125
+325
-130
0
1		-0.61160-0.60842-0.37066
Eintracht Frankfurt
Werder Bremen		50.1%
26.7%		23.2%
+200
+136
+195
+135
4
3		-1.12559-1.12473-0.69049
VfB Stuttgart
FC Koln		25.4%
51.5%		23.1%
+200
+139
+200
+135
0
0		-1.31000-1.30460-1.46638
Borussia Monchengladbach
Bayern Munich		4.3%
87.2%		8.5%
+1223
-510
+1300
-615
1
1		-2.22766-2.21384-2.47065
Union Berlin
Schalke 04		38.2%
35.1%		26.7%
+135
+228
+129
+215
6
1		-0.87366-0.87733-0.96299
Dortmund
Hertha BSC		61.5%
18.7%		19.8%
-132
+332
-139
+345
1
0		-0.59381-0.56541-0.48625
Augsburg
Hoffenheim		13.2%
69.6%		17.1%
+604
-230
+575
-230
0
1		-0.39186-0.40825-0.36256
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Mainz 05		44.5%
30.5%		25.0%
+200
+140
+185
+140
3
0		-1.12451-1.08726-0.80869
Wolfsburg
RB Leipzig		11.3%
72.1%		16.5%
+469
-170
+490
-190
0
2		-0.48514-0.46681-0.32662
VfL Bochum
Freiburg		14.2%
67.1%		18.6%
+521
-195
+525
-200
0
1		-0.44820-0.44679-0.39903
Bayern Munich
VfL Bochum		80.9%
7.1%		12.0%
-500
+1300
-600
+1400
7
0		-0.20796-0.20181-0.21244
FC Koln
Eintracht Frankfurt		19.9%
59.6%		20.4%
+240
+113
+230
+110
1
1		-1.37500-1.35662-1.58782
RB Leipzig
Union Berlin		58.9%
19.5%		21.6%
+128
+235
+120
+235
1
2		-1.22680-1.25180-1.63655
Freiburg
VfB Stuttgart		36.4%
37.1%		26.5%
+160
+175
+160
+165
1
0		-0.97896-0.99671-1.01148
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.18470 
Sportsbooks11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.17471 
DRatings11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.14975
0.03495
0.02496

Predictions Methodology

The game and score predictions above do not account for injuries, weather or any other random factor that may be cause the outcome to be swayed. See my disclaimer page for information on the benefits and downfalls about these Bundesliga predictions: disclaimer

The German Bundesliga pits all 18 teams against each other in a home-and-home series for a total of 34 games in a season. The top four teams qualify for the Champions League, and the fifth and sixth teams in the final standings qualify for Europa league. The bottom two teams in the Bundesliga get relegated, while the 16th ranked team plays the third ranked team in 2. Bundesliga to determine who will play in the top division for the next season.

These game predictions should be used for entertainment purposes only. The Season Projection for the Bundesliga is based on a simulation with 1,000 iterations.