Netherlands Eredivisie Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for May 12, 2024

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Zwolle
RKC Waalwijk 		25.1%
50.0%		24.9%
+350
-131

1.06
1.61		2.67
o3-122
u3+105

Feyenoord
NEC Nijmegen 		66.6%
14.1%		19.3%
-200
+525

2.16
0.87		3.03
o3¼-115
u3½-125

Vitesse
Heerenveen 		12.5%
69.5%		18.0%
+451
-179

0.85
2.28		3.13
o3-125
u3+113

Almere City
Ajax 		9.7%
73.9%		16.4%
+775
-345

0.74
2.37		3.11
o3¼-105
u3¼-115

Sparta Rotterdam
Utrecht 		21.8%
55.0%		23.3%
+330
-123

1.03
1.78		2.81
o2¾-115
u2¾-105

AZ Alkmaar
Go Ahead Eagles 		53.3%
23.0%		23.6%
-120
+320

1.75
1.06		2.81
o2¾-115
u3-137

Heracles Almelo
Excelsior 		31.2%
40.9%		27.9%
+285
-107

1.07
1.27		2.34
o3-122
u3+111

Volendam
Twente 		3.1%
88.9%		8.1%
+2400
-1036

0.51
3.25		3.76
o4+107
u4-120

PSV Eindhoven
Fortuna Sittard 		69.7%
13.1%		17.2%
-325
+804

2.43
0.96		3.39
o3½+101
u3½-118

Games for May 11, 2024
Games for May 13, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
NEC Nijmegen
Excelsior		40.1%
31.4%		28.5%
+210
+129
+190
+125
3
0		-1.16264-1.11581-0.91409
Zwolle
Feyenoord		3.9%
87.2%		8.8%
+2087
-981
+2000
-1150
0
5		-0.13191-0.13307-0.13669
Twente
AZ Alkmaar		27.9%
46.7%		25.4%
+251
+125
+230
+120
1
2		-0.82830-0.83884-0.76228
Ajax
Volendam		75.3%
8.9%		15.7%
-351
+890
-360
+800
4
1		-0.27258-0.29389-0.28345
Vitesse
Utrecht		12.8%
69.5%		17.7%
+942
-351
+875
-370
0
1		-0.28072-0.29030-0.36455
RKC Waalwijk
Heracles Almelo		27.1%
47.0%		25.9%
+196
+133
+200
+120
5
0		-1.11158-1.14841-1.30427
Sparta Rotterdam
PSV Eindhoven		5.0%
85.0%		10.0%
+1642
-714
+1640
-800
2
4		-0.16486-0.16864-0.16217
Heerenveen
Almere City		39.8%
32.2%		28.0%
+145
+187
+145
+180
1
1		-1.31472-1.30254-1.27357
Go Ahead Eagles
Fortuna Sittard		23.1%
53.5%		23.4%
+195
+140
+180
+140
0
0		-1.32392-1.33124-1.45128
Fortuna Sittard
Vitesse		41.4%
32.4%		26.2%
+123
+220
+115
+215
2
3		-1.19531-1.19548-1.12794
Volendam
Sparta Rotterdam		7.6%
77.7%		14.6%
+1100
-418
+1000
-435
0
1		-0.24140-0.25775-0.25194
Utrecht
RKC Waalwijk		38.7%
34.5%		26.8%
+110
+258
+105
+240
2
2		-1.34369-1.35919-1.31610
AZ Alkmaar
NEC Nijmegen		49.1%
25.7%		25.2%
+112
+239
+110
+220
3
0		-0.78082-0.79248-0.71160
Feyenoord
Go Ahead Eagles		70.3%
12.3%		17.5%
-171
+482
-180
+450
3
1		-0.48517-0.49004-0.35297
PSV Eindhoven
Heerenveen		64.8%
15.8%		19.4%
-266
+725
-280
+670
8
0		-0.34596-0.35436-0.43416
Excelsior
Ajax		7.7%
77.9%		14.4%
+700
-262
+700
-320
2
2		-1.74531-1.85790-1.93940
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks10-1-0 (0.000)0-1.16264 
Sportsbooks10-1-0 (0.000)0-1.11581 
DRatings11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.91409
0.24855
0.20172

Predictions Methodology

While the regular season for the Eredivisie of the Netherlands is rather standard, the league has a rather unique end of season set up. The league consists of 18 teams that play a home-and-home series against every other team in the league to create a 34 game season. At the end of the regular season, the top four teams qualify for either the Champions League or Europa League. The fifth through eighth place teams then go into a playoff to determine who wins the last Europa league qualification spot. Relegation is just as interesting. The team at the bottom of the league is automatically relegated, while the teams seeded at fifteen and sixteen join a playoff that includes eight teams from the second division. The top two teams at the end of this playoff win entry into the top division.