NEC Nijmegen at Ajax

Updated

NEC Nijmegen

10.8%16.6%72.6%
WinDrawAjax Win
0.82Projected Goals 2.41
3Final Score 0

Ajax

Last 5 Games

NEC Nijmegen
Money Line
T 1-1 vs Willem II
L 0-1 at Heerenveen
W 1-2 vs RKC Waalwijk
L 0-2 at Sparta Rotterdam
T 3-3 vs AZ Alkmaar
Ajax
Money Line
T 1-1 vs Sparta Rotterdam
L 0-4 at Utrecht
W 2-1 at Willem II
W 1-3 vs NAC Breda
W 2-0 at PSV Eindhoven

Money Line Analysis

Implied Margin

Using the best lines from multiple sportsbooks, this would be the % take from the consensus sportsbook if bets were even on each side.

More on Implied Margin
:
3.8%
 Open LineHeritageBovadaBetOnlineYouWagerSportsBettingBest Line

No-Vig Odds

Using a market maker sportsbook, this is what the line would be if there was no vigorish (sportsbook fee) in the price.

More on No-Vig Odds
NEC Nijmegen+855+1130+1100+1100+1118+1100+1130+1157.7
Ajax-309-436-480-455-489-455-436-359.2
Draw+456+589+525+590+577+590+590+623.2
 Open LineSouth PointCircaWynnStationsWestgateBest Line

No-Vig Odds

Using a market maker sportsbook, this is what the line would be if there was no vigorish (sportsbook fee) in the price.

More on No-Vig Odds
NEC Nijmegen-----+1157.7
Ajax------359.2
Draw-----+623.2

Overall

Bet Value Inactive
NEC Nijmegen: 20.0%
Bet Value Inactive
Ajax: 0.0%

Base Rating

Our analytical projection of the match in relation to the implied probability to win from the sportsbooks.

More on Base Rating

NEC Nijmegen: 30.0%
Ajax: 0.0%

Bet Trends

Doing an analysis on the betting data, we project which team has which team has an edge.

More on Bet Trends

Sharp Line

Our proprietary formula predicting which direction the line will move.

More on Sharp Line

NEC Nijmegen: 0.0%
Ajax: 0.0%

Latest ML

Steam Move

A quick and uniform line move across every sportsbook. Usually caused by an injury or deep-pocketed sharp bettor.

More on Steam Move

NEC Nijmegen ML moved from +1100 to +1000
Ajax ML moved from -423 to -436

Over/Under Analysis

Implied Margin

Using the best lines from multiple sportsbooks, this would be the % take from the consensus sportsbook if bets were even on each side.

More on Implied Margin
:
1.2%
 Open LineHeritageBovadaBetOnlineYouWagerSportsBettingBest Line

No-Vig Odds

Using a market maker sportsbook, this is what the line would be if there was no vigorish (sportsbook fee) in the price.

More on No-Vig Odds
Overo3-130o3½+108o3¼-115o3¼-112o3¼-118o3¼-112o3¼-112o3¼-102
Underu3+111u3½-127u3¼-105u3¼-108u3¼-102u3¼-108u3½-127u3¼+102
 Open LineSouth PointCircaWynnStationsWestgateBest Line

No-Vig Odds

Using a market maker sportsbook, this is what the line would be if there was no vigorish (sportsbook fee) in the price.

More on No-Vig Odds
Over-----o3¼-102
Under-----u3¼+102

Overall

Bet Value Inactive
Over: 10.0%
Bet Value Inactive
Under: 0.0%

Base Rating

Our analytical projection of the match in relation to the implied probability to win from the sportsbooks.

More on Base Rating

Over: 0.0%
Under: 0.0%

Bet Trends

Doing an analysis on the betting data, we project which team has which team has an edge.

More on Bet Trends

Sharp Line

Our proprietary formula predicting which direction the line will move.

More on Sharp Line

Over: 0.0%
Under: 0.0%

Latest O/U

Steam Move

A quick and uniform line move across every sportsbook. Usually caused by an injury or deep-pocketed sharp bettor.

More on Steam Move

No Steam Moves On Over
No Steam Moves On Under

Goal Props

Both Teams to Score
Yes51.0%
 
No49.0%

Total Goals

0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Exact Goals Scored - Overall
Exactly 03.94%
Exactly 220.60%
Exactly 417.96%
Exactly 66.26%
Exactly 81.17%
Exactly 100.14%
 
Exactly 112.74%
Exactly 322.21%
Exactly 511.62%
Exactly 72.89%
Exactly 90.42%
Exact Goals Scored - NEC Nijmegen
Exactly 044.02%
Exactly 136.12%
Exactly 214.82%
Exactly 34.05%
Exactly 40.83%
Exactly 50.14%
Exact Goals Scored - Ajax
Exactly 08.94%
Exactly 121.59%
Exactly 226.06%
Exactly 320.97%
Exactly 412.66%
Exactly 56.11%
Exactly 62.46%
Exactly 70.85%
Exactly 80.26%
Exact Goals Scored - First Half
Exactly 022.37%
Exactly 225.08%
Exactly 44.69%
Exactly 60.35%
 
Exactly 133.50%
Exactly 312.52%
Exactly 51.40%
Exact Goals Scored - First Half - NEC Nijmegen
Exactly 068.39%
Exactly 125.98%
Exactly 24.93%
Exactly 30.62%
Exact Goals Scored - First Half - Ajax
Exactly 032.70%
Exactly 136.55%
Exactly 220.43%
Exactly 37.61%
Exactly 42.13%
Exactly 50.48%

Alternate Props

Spread

NEC Nijmegen
Wins by 2+ goals3.14%
Wins by 3+ goals0.69%
Ajax
Wins by 2+ goals49.92%
Wins by 3+ goals28.72%
Wins by 4+ goals13.90%
Wins by 5+ goals5.72%
Wins by 6+ goals2.01%
Wins by 7+ goals0.58%
Wins by 8+ goals0.11%

Exact Winning Margin

NEC Nijmegen
Ajax
3
2
1
D
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
NEC Nijmegen
Wins by 1 goal7.68%
Wins by 2 goals2.45%
Wins by 3 goals0.58%
Ajax
Wins by 1 goal22.59%
Wins by 2 goals21.19%
Wins by 3 goals14.82%
Wins by 4 goals8.18%
Wins by 5 goals3.72%
Wins by 6 goals1.43%
Wins by 7 goals0.47%
Wins by 8 goals0.11%

Total Goals Over/Under

OverUnder
0.596.06%3.94%
1.583.33%16.67%
2.562.73%37.27%
3.540.52%59.48%
4.522.56%77.44%
5.510.94%89.06%
6.54.68%95.32%
7.51.78%98.22%

Total Goals NEC Nijmegen Over/Under

OverUnder
0.555.98%44.02%
1.519.86%80.14%
2.55.04%94.96%

Total Goals Ajax Over/Under

OverUnder
0.591.06%8.94%
1.569.46%30.54%
2.543.40%56.60%
3.522.42%77.58%
4.59.77%90.23%
5.53.65%96.35%
6.51.19%98.81%

Total Goals - First Half Over/Under

OverUnder
0.577.63%22.37%
1.544.14%55.86%
2.519.06%80.94%
3.56.53%93.47%
4.51.85%98.15%

Score Props

Correct Score

NEC Nijmegen
Ajax
Score012345
0
3.94%
9.51%
11.47%
9.23%
5.57%
2.69%
1
3.23%
7.80%
9.41%
7.58%
4.57%
2.21%
2
1.33%
3.20%
3.86%
3.11%
1.88%
0.91%
3
0.36%
0.88%
1.06%
0.85%
0.51%
0.25%
NEC Nijmegen
1-03.23%
2-01.33%
2-13.20%
3-00.36%
3-10.88%
3-21.06%
Draw
0-03.94%
1-17.80%
2-23.86%
3-30.85%
4-40.11%
Ajax
0-19.51%
0-211.47%
1-29.41%
0-39.23%
1-37.58%
2-33.11%
0-45.57%
1-44.57%
2-41.88%
3-40.51%
0-52.69%
1-52.21%
2-50.91%
3-50.25%

Correct Score - First Half

NEC Nijmegen
Ajax
Score012345
0
22.37%
25.00%
13.97%
5.21%
1.45%
0.33%
1
8.50%
9.50%
5.31%
1.98%
0.55%
0.12%
2
1.61%
1.80%
1.01%
0.38%
0.10%
0.02%
3
0.20%
0.23%
0.13%
0.05%
0.01%
0.00%
NEC Nijmegen
1-08.50%
2-01.61%
2-11.80%
3-00.20%
3-10.23%
3-20.13%
Draw
0-022.37%
1-19.50%
2-21.01%
Ajax
0-125.00%
0-213.97%
1-25.31%
0-35.21%
1-31.98%
2-30.38%
0-41.45%
1-40.55%
2-40.10%
0-50.33%
1-50.12%