Portugal Primeira Liga Predictions

Updated

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Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Boavista
Porto		4.7%
84.1%		11.2%
+1712
-725
+1750
-800
1
2		-0.17673-0.16485-0.17304
Moreirense
Casa Pia AC		34.1%
36.3%		29.6%
+186
+169
+190
+165
1
0		-1.08607-1.11355-1.07482
Arouca
Benfica		5.1%
83.1%		11.8%
+843
-345
+810
-375
0
5		-0.28684-0.28602-0.18523
SC Farense
Gil Vicente FC		23.4%
49.2%		27.4%
+357
-134
+360
-135
0
2		-0.59167-0.60462-0.70952
Braga
Vitoria		37.9%
33.9%		28.2%
+121
+234
+120
+205
3
2		-0.82223-0.83637-0.97072
Sporting CP
Estoril		73.0%
9.7%		17.4%
-264
+686
-270
+670
1
0		-0.35820-0.36394-0.31523
Estrela
FC Vizela		31.5%
39.5%		28.9%
+108
+255
+105
+250
0
4		-1.30346-1.30280-0.92811
Rio Ave
Portimonense		40.8%
28.9%		30.4%
+200
+145
+205
+135
2
2		-1.26713-1.25956-1.19211
Famalicao
Chaves		32.4%
39.6%		27.9%
+149
+199
+145
+190
1
0		-0.94369-0.94631-1.12559
Benfica
Famalicao		74.6%
9.7%		15.7%
-237
+601
-260
+625
0
2		-1.98348-2.03042-2.33811
Casa Pia AC
Braga		7.9%
77.2%		14.8%
+888
-319
+850
-335
3
4		-0.30533-0.30933-0.25865
Estrela
Arouca		17.8%
57.9%		24.2%
+230
+114
+230
+110
0
0		-1.35410-1.34657-1.41762
Estoril
SC Farense		25.9%
45.7%		28.4%
+186
+175
+195
+160
2
3		-1.04683-1.00570-0.78218
Porto
Chaves		73.1%
9.7%		17.2%
-359
+978
-375
+960
3
0		-0.28305-0.28564-0.31305
Portimonense
Sporting CP		3.6%
86.2%		10.1%
+2216
-1168
+2200
-1350
0
3		-0.10526-0.12161-0.14830
Vitoria
Rio Ave		37.4%
32.6%		30.0%
+128
+242
+145
+200
1
2		-1.26397-1.15119-1.11951
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks43-1-0 (0.750)0-0.53533 
Sportsbooks43-1-0 (0.750)0-0.54226 
DRatings43-1-0 (0.750)0-0.53565
-0.00032
0.00661

Predictions Methodology

The Portuguese Liga (Primeira Liga) consists of 18 teams. As with many other European leagues, teams progress throughout the season using the process of promotion and relegation, with the two lowest teams relegated to Segunda Liga, and the two highest teams moving up to join the Primeira Liga. The league became official in 1938, after four years as an experimental league, and has since improved its reputation within the UEFA (Union of European Football Associations).