Portugal Primeira Liga Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for March 15, 2026

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Tondela
Sporting CP 		3.8%
86.9%		9.3%


0.53
3.07		3.60


Estoril
Nacional 		25.6%
47.6%		26.8%
+176
+144

0.97
1.43		2.40
o2¾-110
u2¾-110

Santa Clara
AVS 		40.3%
31.0%		28.7%
-118
+355

1.21
1.02		2.23
o2¼+108
u2¼-128

Estrela
Rio Ave 		22.2%
51.3%		26.5%


0.87
1.47		2.34


Moreirense
Porto 		4.7%
83.9%		11.4%
+1500
-585

0.54
2.78		3.32
o2¾-112
u2¾-108

Games for Mar 14, 2026
Games for Mar 16, 2026

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Vitoria
Santa Clara		34.8%
36.4%		28.8%
+216
+156
+225
+145
0
2		-0.97128-0.94410-1.01035
Porto
Benfica		23.7%
51.5%		24.8%
+340
-103
+300
+105
2
2		-1.21797-1.21224-1.39404
Gil Vicente FC
Estrela		46.2%
25.4%		28.3%
+102
+325
-115
+350
2
2		-1.23104-1.27372-1.26058
Casa Pia AC
Estoril		17.4%
59.6%		22.9%
+355
-132
+355
-135
0
0		-1.44312-1.41038-1.47333
Sporting CP
Braga		49.3%
25.2%		25.5%
+105
+290
+105
+265
2
2		-1.28226-1.28870-1.36641
AVS
Alverca		21.0%
52.4%		26.6%
+425
-141
+420
-150
0
0		-1.39243-1.39885-1.32460
Arouca
Famalicao		19.3%
57.7%		23.0%
+435
-147
+430
-150
0
1		-0.55052-0.56136-0.54948
Benfica
Gil Vicente FC		64.4%
14.8%		20.8%
-175
+525
-175
+490
2
1		-0.48315-0.50055-0.44058
Famalicao
Rio Ave		45.1%
27.5%		27.4%
-119
+310
-115
+305
0
0		-1.38422-1.35907-1.29616
Moreirense
Casa Pia AC		37.2%
33.4%		29.3%
+200
+180
+205
+160
1
1		-1.09937-1.13199-1.22632
Santa Clara
Tondela		41.7%
30.2%		28.1%
+165
+215
+155
+215
2
2		-1.08028-1.12927-1.26919
Alverca
Vitoria		15.7%
63.3%		21.0%
+400
-125
+375
-125
1
1		-1.31375-1.30328-1.56117
Braga
Nacional		55.8%
20.0%		24.3%
-200
+525
-175
+480
2
1		-0.45800-0.50053-0.58375
Estrela
AVS		30.0%
42.7%		27.2%
+160
+190
+150
+190
0
0		-1.23018-1.22984-1.30085
Estoril
Sporting CP		4.9%
83.5%		11.6%
+1200
-550
+1275
-575
0
3		-0.20697-0.20874-0.17986
Arouca
Porto		5.3%
82.1%		12.6%
+1400
-455
+1250
-450
1
3		-0.23822-0.25161-0.19664
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks31-0-2 (0.667)0-1.14010 
Sportsbooks31-0-2 (0.667)0-1.14335 
DRatings31-0-2 (0.667)0-1.22166
-0.08156
-0.07830

Predictions Methodology

The Portuguese Liga (Primeira Liga) consists of 18 teams. As with many other European leagues, teams progress throughout the season using the process of promotion and relegation, with the two lowest teams relegated to Segunda Liga, and the two highest teams moving up to join the Primeira Liga. The league became official in 1938, after four years as an experimental league, and has since improved its reputation within the UEFA (Union of European Football Associations).