Portugal Primeira Liga Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for December 14, 2025

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Estoril
Famalicao 		15.5%
63.1%		21.4%
+315
-122

0.83
1.92		2.75
o2½-115
u2½-105

Benfica
Moreirense 		73.7%
9.7%		16.6%
-290
+750

2.35
0.72		3.07
o2½-120
u2½+100

Alverca
Arouca 		20.4%
54.1%		25.5%
+142
+193

0.85
1.56		2.41
o2¼-105
u2¼-115

Games for Dec 13, 2025
Games for Dec 15, 2025

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Porto
Tondela		73.5%
9.7%		16.7%
-350
+950
-425
+1250
2
0		-0.31288-0.26035-0.30752
Nacional
Alverca		33.6%
37.8%		28.7%
+280
+119
+290
+115
0
1		-0.82046-0.81369-0.97392
Arouca
Estrela		33.1%
36.7%		30.2%
+300
-109
+320
-105
1
3		-0.71056-0.72099-1.00212
Moreirense
Estoril		23.0%
50.5%		26.5%
+240
+126
+245
+125
3
3		-1.21106-1.19789-1.32829
Braga
Famalicao		32.3%
40.7%		27.0%
+129
+225
+115
+245
2
1		-0.87486-0.81340-1.13066
Rio Ave
AVS		26.1%
45.8%		28.1%
+140
+210
+145
+200
2
1		-0.92133-0.94410-1.34442
Casa Pia AC
Santa Clara		9.7%
72.8%		17.5%
+350
+100
+380
-110
0
1		-0.75256-0.69503-0.31721
Sporting CP
Benfica		26.3%
47.9%		25.8%
+166
+183
+160
+190
1
1		-1.17073-1.18215-1.35635
Braga
Arouca		47.9%
25.5%		26.6%
-214
+550
-220
+575
4
0		-0.44665-0.42414-0.73672
Estoril
Porto		5.5%
81.9%		12.6%
+1300
-500
+1500
-550
0
1		-0.23929-0.21729-0.20011
Estrela
Sporting CP		3.4%
87.4%		9.1%
+1600
-714
+1750
-800
0
4		-0.18012-0.16757-0.13431
Santa Clara
Rio Ave		39.3%
30.9%		29.8%
+178
+177
+165
+190
1
1		-1.16257-1.16398-1.21150
Tondela
Gil Vicente FC		21.6%
53.1%		25.3%
+445
-149
+500
-165
1
0		-1.74997-1.84288-1.82170
Benfica
Nacional		71.0%
11.4%		17.5%
-285
+680
-240
+600
2
1		-0.36152-0.39591-0.34194
Famalicao
Moreirense		40.8%
31.5%		27.7%
+140
+212
+125
+235
2
2		-1.21164-1.22806-1.30582
Alverca
Casa Pia AC		32.9%
37.8%		29.3%
+200
+154
+195
+160
2
0		-1.15208-1.13199-1.11027
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks43-0-1 (0.875)0-0.76374 
Sportsbooks43-0-1 (0.875)0-0.74823 
DRatings43-0-1 (0.875)0-0.90296
-0.13922
-0.15473

Predictions Methodology

The Portuguese Liga (Primeira Liga) consists of 18 teams. As with many other European leagues, teams progress throughout the season using the process of promotion and relegation, with the two lowest teams relegated to Segunda Liga, and the two highest teams moving up to join the Primeira Liga. The league became official in 1938, after four years as an experimental league, and has since improved its reputation within the UEFA (Union of European Football Associations).