Spain La Liga Predictions

Updated

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Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Atletico Madrid
Real Sociedad		43.6%
28.1%		28.2%
+174
+193
+170
+190
1
1		-1.17083-1.15506-1.26503
Betis
Sevilla		22.5%
52.7%		24.8%
+183
+174
+180
+165
0
1		-1.03364-1.02521-0.64071
Barcelona
Alaves		56.8%
19.3%		23.9%
-138
+380
-142
+365
3
0		-0.56553-0.57782-0.56651
Athletic Club
Girona		38.4%
32.3%		29.2%
+220
+141
+220
+135
1
2		-0.90525-0.89644-1.12865
Villarreal
Real Madrid		6.5%
81.1%		12.4%
+965
-366
+875
-400
0
2		-0.26864-0.27055-0.20929
Celta Vigo
Las Palmas		35.1%
35.6%		29.3%
+120
+300
+100
+280
1
0		-0.76673-0.73779-1.04609
Rayo Vallecano
Valladolid		31.2%
40.7%		28.1%
+155
+247
+150
+215
2
1		-0.94425-0.96582-1.16491
Osasuna
Getafe		24.5%
47.4%		28.1%
+317
+118
+315
+115
1
1		-1.15230-1.14178-1.26844
Mallorca
Espanyol		30.1%
41.2%		28.6%
+135
+274
+145
+265
1
2		-1.34500-1.32017-0.88600
Valencia
Leganes		46.2%
26.2%		27.6%
+200
+206
+190
+195
0
0		-1.05826-1.05794-1.28652
Las Palmas
Villarreal		16.2%
62.3%		21.5%
+550
-197
+575
-210
1
3		-0.43154-0.41471-0.47337
Real Madrid
Atletico Madrid		38.8%
32.6%		28.6%
+165
+190
+165
+183
1
1		-1.25033-1.21635-1.25134
Espanyol
Betis		19.7%
57.2%		23.1%
+670
-165
+640
-205
0
1		-0.46040-0.44167-0.55874
Sevilla
Athletic Club		17.6%
58.6%		23.8%
+435
-134
+390
-135
1
1		-1.36720-1.35600-1.43649
Girona
Celta Vigo		26.6%
47.1%		26.3%
+225
+160
+215
+160
1
1		-1.27018-1.26061-1.33640
Barcelona
Osasuna		64.8%
14.6%		20.6%
-121
+460
-125
+470
2
4		-1.65968-1.70057-1.92662
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 10/06/24
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Barcelona (8-1-0, 24 pts)23.57.27.377.736.1%99.0%0.9%0.0%
2Real Madrid (6-0-3, 21 pts)23.75.09.480.457.3%99.4%0.5%0.0%
3Atletico Madrid (4-0-5, 17 pts)18.86.812.468.96.0%86.5%8.9%0.0%
4Villarreal (5-2-2, 17 pts)15.612.010.457.20.0%23.0%29.1%0.4%
5Osasuna (4-2-3, 15 pts)12.714.311.049.10.0%2.9%9.2%6.9%
6Athletic Club (4-3-2, 14 pts)16.911.110.060.70.6%46.5%30.5%0.1%
7Mallorca (4-3-2, 14 pts)13.114.710.249.40.0%5.0%12.3%4.8%
8Rayo Vallecano (3-2-4, 13 pts)11.414.512.146.40.0%2.0%6.3%11.1%
9Celta Vigo (4-4-1, 13 pts)14.014.89.251.20.0%5.4%16.5%2.2%
10Betis (3-3-3, 12 pts)12.714.111.249.20.0%4.0%10.7%4.7%
11Sevilla (3-3-3, 12 pts)13.513.510.951.50.0%5.9%19.2%3.1%
12Girona (3-3-3, 12 pts)13.313.511.251.00.0%7.3%16.2%3.7%
13Alaves (3-5-1, 10 pts)13.215.59.348.90.0%3.0%10.5%6.9%
14Espanyol (3-5-1, 10 pts)11.617.49.143.80.0%0.6%2.7%21.3%
15Real Sociedad (2-4-3, 9 pts)13.213.611.250.70.0%7.3%16.4%4.0%
16Getafe (1-3-5, 8 pts)10.114.713.243.40.0%0.7%2.9%22.6%
17Leganes (1-3-5, 8 pts)7.717.912.535.50.0%0.0%0.1%69.0%
18Valencia (1-5-3, 6 pts)11.615.311.145.80.0%1.3%6.7%14.1%
19Valladolid (1-6-2, 5 pts)8.919.29.936.60.0%0.0%0.2%64.2%
20Las Palmas (0-6-3, 3 pts)8.418.511.136.20.0%0.2%0.2%60.9%

Predictions Methodology

Spain's La Liga is arguably the world's strongest soccer league. Twenty teams play 38 games in the league. The top four teams make Champions League. Teams that finish 5th through 7th make the Europa League. The teams that finish at the bottom of the table are relegated to La Liga 2.