German Bundesliga Predictions

Updated

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Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Freiburg
Borussia Monchengladbach		31.6%
43.3%		25.1%
+213
+131
+198
+145
0
0		-1.31472-1.29000-1.38107
Hoffenheim
Mainz 05		32.1%
42.9%		25.0%
+292
-105
+305
-110
0
1		-0.70245-0.68681-0.84621
FC Koln
Union Berlin		23.5%
53.5%		23.1%
+325
+105
+355
-105
0
0		-1.20895-1.22404-1.46729
RB Leipzig
Dortmund		24.4%
53.0%		22.6%
+215
+135
+200
+125
1
2		-0.86977-0.85996-0.63471
Union Berlin
Bayern Munich		7.9%
78.8%		13.3%
+725
-213
+665
-235
0
3		-0.40384-0.40296-0.23857
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Freiburg		35.8%
37.9%		26.3%
+200
+144
+220
+130
1
1		-1.29149-1.31576-1.33701
VfB Stuttgart
Schalke 04		33.9%
40.4%		25.8%
+136
+225
+131
+215
1
2		-1.20387-1.19257-0.90684
VfL Bochum
Werder Bremen		15.5%
65.6%		18.9%
+301
-106
+300
-110
0
3		-0.68784-0.69047-0.42227
Augsburg
Hertha BSC		23.1%
54.0%		22.8%
+262
+115
+250
+110
0
2		-0.78825-0.78084-0.61589
Dortmund
Hoffenheim		39.1%
36.0%		24.9%
-144
+360
-145
+356
1
0		-0.55912-0.56625-0.93843
Wolfsburg
FC Koln		22.5%
54.9%		22.6%
+210
+136
+210
+130
2
0		-1.16293-1.17280-1.49090
Eintracht Frankfurt
RB Leipzig		16.3%
64.8%		18.9%
+460
-151
+420
-155
1
2		-0.52628-0.53926-0.43331
Borussia Monchengladbach
Mainz 05		29.3%
46.3%		24.4%
+226
+122
+240
+113
0
4		-0.82109-0.78594-0.76973
Mainz 05
Bayer 04 Leverkusen		15.6%
65.3%		19.0%
+307
-105
+300
-110
3
2		-1.42791-1.43297-1.85476
Hertha BSC
Dortmund		9.3%
76.9%		13.8%
+600
-200
+620
-238
1
4		-0.40729-0.39291-0.26290
Schalke 04
Union Berlin		13.6%
68.3%		18.2%
+525
-141
+490
-150
0
0		-1.29744-1.33930-1.70639
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks21-0-1 (0.750)0-0.71816 
Sportsbooks21-0-1 (0.750)0-0.71803 
DRatings21-0-1 (0.750)0-0.84148
-0.12332
-0.12346

Predictions Methodology

The game and score predictions above do not account for injuries, weather or any other random factor that may be cause the outcome to be swayed. See my disclaimer page for information on the benefits and downfalls about these Bundesliga predictions: disclaimer

The German Bundesliga pits all 18 teams against each other in a home-and-home series for a total of 34 games in a season. The top four teams qualify for the Champions League, and the fifth and sixth teams in the final standings qualify for Europa league. The bottom two teams in the Bundesliga get relegated, while the 16th ranked team plays the third ranked team in 2. Bundesliga to determine who will play in the top division for the next season.

These game predictions should be used for entertainment purposes only. The Season Projection for the Bundesliga is based on a simulation with 1,000 iterations.