MLB Baseball Predictions

Updated

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Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinBest
ML
Best
Spread
Final
Runs
Sportsbook
Log Loss
DRatings
Log Loss
Chicago Cubs
Chicago White Sox
49.8%
50.2%
+145
-150
+144
-148
+1½-145
-1½+125
+1½-145
-1½+130
10
8
-0.90614-0.90010-0.69639
Baltimore Orioles
Toronto Blue Jays
41.7%
58.3%
+115
-121
+116
-120
+1½-165
-1½+147
+1½-165
-1½+150
7
5
-0.77914-0.77925-0.87378
San Diego Padres
San Francisco Giants
51.0%
49.0%
+115
-117
+109
-115
+1½-180
-1½+165
+1½-170
-1½+165
5
4
-0.77009-0.75122-0.67431
New York Mets
Washington Nationals
53.9%
46.1%
-117
+115
-116
+111
-1½+130
+1½-150
-1½+139
+1½-135
5
15
-0.77007-0.75833-0.77375
Miami Marlins
New York Yankees
35.1%
64.9%
+170
-179
+162
-174
+1½-113
-1½+100
+1½-115
-1½+100
5
0
-1.00953-0.98532-1.04791
Houston Astros
Texas Rangers
58.1%
41.9%
-123
+120
-116
+114
-1½+130
+1½-142
-1½+130
+1½-148
4
8
-0.79520-0.76544-0.86991
Detroit Tigers
Kansas City Royals
41.8%
58.2%
+165
-168
+162
-170
+1½-127
-1½+115
+1½-125
-1½+115
1
3
-0.47039-0.47164-0.54053
San Diego Padres
San Francisco Giants
56.0%
44.0%
-132
+130
-127
+130
-1½+120
+1½-135
-1½+130
+1½-138
6
2
-0.56724-0.57565-0.58044
Los Angeles Angels
Los Angeles Dodgers
29.9%
70.1%
+275
-305
+263
-290
+1½+140
-1½-150
+1½+130
-1½-143
6
7
-0.29678-0.30916-0.35478
Colorado Rockies
Arizona Diamondbacks
50.1%
49.9%
+105
-108
+102
-109
+1½-195
-1½+170
+1½-190
-1½+175
10
3
-0.72507-0.71998-0.69103
Oakland Athletics
Seattle Mariners
57.2%
42.8%
-138
+135
-138
+132
-1½+135
+1½-150
-1½+140
+1½-148
3
12
-0.86074-0.85426-0.84950
Cincinnati Reds
Minnesota Twins
44.3%
55.7%
+115
-119
+114
-119
+1½-190
-1½+170
+1½-180
-1½+170
3
7
-0.61780-0.61980-0.58503
Chicago Cubs
Chicago White Sox
45.5%
54.5%
+145
-153
+142
-150
+1½-140
-1½+130
+1½-140
-1½+126
5
9
-0.51368-0.52190-0.60770
Boston Red Sox
Atlanta Braves
40.7%
59.3%
+140
-147
+140
-145
+1½-147
-1½+130
+1½-148
-1½+140
8
2
-0.88975-0.88574-0.89993
Pittsburgh Pirates
Cleveland Guardians
30.8%
69.2%
+155
-160
+155
-160
+1½-138
-1½+120
+1½-130
-1½+120
8
0
-0.94575-0.94575-1.17671
Milwaukee Brewers
St. Louis Cardinals
50.4%
49.6%
-111
+110
-110
+107
-1½+145
+1½-165
-1½+155
+1½-160
3
0
-0.64447-0.65323-0.68512
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0 (0.000)0

Predictions Methodology

Here we use computer estimates from the Inference Index to predict future Major League baseball games. We use previous score and pitcher data to best attempt to estimate the results of each game. The predictions do not account for injuries, or any other factors that may cause the outcome to be swayed in one direction or another. There is a lot of randomness, particularly in baseball, so there will always be some error in the prediction.

Beginning in the 2014 season, we have begun including probable starting pitcher into the calculation. If there is a late change in the starting pitcher for a team and it is not reflected below then the projections will not be an accurate assessment on the game. The current projection system for Major League Baseball games is at Level 3, our highest level of analysis. The Predictor should be used for entertainment purposes only.