Heracles Almelo at Ajax

Updated

Heracles Almelo

29.8%25.4%44.8%
Heracles Almelo WinDrawAjax Win
1.19Projected Goals 1.52
0Final Score 2

Ajax

Last 5 Games

Heracles Almelo
Money Line
L 4-1 vs NEC Nijmegen
L 0-4 at Utrecht
L 2-1 vs NEC Nijmegen
L 1-4 at PSV Eindhoven
W 2-1 at Willem II
Ajax
Money Line
T 2-2 at Go Ahead Eagles
W 0-2 vs Telstar
W 0-2 vs Twente
T 2-2 at Groningen
L 3-0 vs NEC Nijmegen

Money Line Analysis

Implied Margin

Using the best lines from multiple sportsbooks, this would be the % take from the consensus sportsbook if bets were even on each side.

More on Implied Margin
:
3.8%
 Open LineHeritageBovadaBetOnlineYouWagerSportsBettingBest Line

No-Vig Odds

Using a market maker sportsbook, this is what the line would be if there was no vigorish (sportsbook fee) in the price.

More on No-Vig Odds
Heracles Almelo+1561+1170+1100+1150+1175+1150+1175+1218.3
Ajax-580-439-500-480-502-480-439-364.5
Draw+688+582+550+580+577+580+582+617.2
 Open LineSouth PointCircaWynnStationsWestgateBest Line

No-Vig Odds

Using a market maker sportsbook, this is what the line would be if there was no vigorish (sportsbook fee) in the price.

More on No-Vig Odds
Heracles Almelo-----+1218.3
Ajax------364.5
Draw-----+617.2

Overall

Bet Value Inactive
Heracles Almelo: 70.0%
Bet Value Inactive
Ajax: 0.0%

Base Rating

Our analytical projection of the match in relation to the implied probability to win from the sportsbooks.

More on Base Rating

Heracles Almelo: 60.0%
Ajax: 0.0%

Bet Trends

Doing an analysis on the betting data, we project which team has which team has an edge.

More on Bet Trends

Sharp Line

Our proprietary formula predicting which direction the line will move.

More on Sharp Line

Heracles Almelo: 0.0%
Ajax: 0.0%

Latest ML

Steam Move

A quick and uniform line move across every sportsbook. Usually caused by an injury or deep-pocketed sharp bettor.

More on Steam Move

Heracles Almelo ML moved from +1199 to +1175
Ajax ML moved from -490 to -500

Over/Under Analysis

Implied Margin

Using the best lines from multiple sportsbooks, this would be the % take from the consensus sportsbook if bets were even on each side.

More on Implied Margin
:
2.4%
 Open LineHeritageBovadaBetOnlineYouWagerSportsBettingBest Line

No-Vig Odds

Using a market maker sportsbook, this is what the line would be if there was no vigorish (sportsbook fee) in the price.

More on No-Vig Odds
Overo3½-112o3½-103o3½-112o3½-113o3½-109o3½-113o3½-103o3½-103
Underu3½-104u3½-113u3½-108u3½-107u3½-111u3½-107u3½-107u3½+103
 Open LineSouth PointCircaWynnStationsWestgateBest Line

No-Vig Odds

Using a market maker sportsbook, this is what the line would be if there was no vigorish (sportsbook fee) in the price.

More on No-Vig Odds
Over-----o3½-103
Under-----u3½+103

Overall

Bet Value Inactive
Over: 0.0%
Bet Value Inactive
Under: 20.0%

Base Rating

Our analytical projection of the match in relation to the implied probability to win from the sportsbooks.

More on Base Rating

Over: 0.0%
Under: 20.0%

Bet Trends

Doing an analysis on the betting data, we project which team has which team has an edge.

More on Bet Trends

Sharp Line

Our proprietary formula predicting which direction the line will move.

More on Sharp Line

Over: 0.0%
Under: 0.0%

Latest O/U

Steam Move

A quick and uniform line move across every sportsbook. Usually caused by an injury or deep-pocketed sharp bettor.

More on Steam Move

No Steam Moves On Over
No Steam Moves On Under

Goal Props

Both Teams to Score
Yes54.3%
 
No45.7%

Total Goals

0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Exact Goals Scored - Overall
Exactly 06.66%
Exactly 224.44%
Exactly 414.94%
Exactly 63.65%
Exactly 80.48%
 
Exactly 118.05%
Exactly 322.07%
Exactly 58.09%
Exactly 71.41%
Exactly 90.14%
Exact Goals Scored - Heracles Almelo
Exactly 030.41%
Exactly 136.20%
Exactly 221.55%
Exactly 38.55%
Exactly 42.54%
Exactly 50.61%
Exactly 60.12%
Exact Goals Scored - Ajax
Exactly 021.91%
Exactly 133.27%
Exactly 225.25%
Exactly 312.78%
Exactly 44.85%
Exactly 51.47%
Exactly 60.37%
Exact Goals Scored - First Half
Exactly 028.54%
Exactly 222.44%
Exactly 42.94%
Exactly 60.15%
 
Exactly 135.78%
Exactly 39.38%
Exactly 50.74%
Exact Goals Scored - First Half - Heracles Almelo
Exactly 057.63%
Exactly 131.76%
Exactly 28.75%
Exactly 31.61%
Exactly 40.22%
Exact Goals Scored - First Half - Ajax
Exactly 049.52%
Exactly 134.80%
Exactly 212.23%
Exactly 32.87%
Exactly 40.50%

Alternate Props

Spread

Heracles Almelo
Wins by 2+ goals12.17%
Wins by 3+ goals3.88%
Wins by 4+ goals0.99%
Wins by 5+ goals0.20%
Ajax
Wins by 2+ goals22.26%
Wins by 3+ goals8.77%
Wins by 4+ goals2.78%
Wins by 5+ goals0.70%
Wins by 6+ goals0.11%

Exact Winning Margin

Heracles Almelo
Ajax
5
4
3
2
1
D
1
2
3
4
5
6
Heracles Almelo
Wins by 1 goal17.62%
Wins by 2 goals8.29%
Wins by 3 goals2.89%
Wins by 4 goals0.79%
Wins by 5 goals0.17%
Ajax
Wins by 1 goal22.46%
Wins by 2 goals13.48%
Wins by 3 goals5.99%
Wins by 4 goals2.09%
Wins by 5 goals0.58%
Wins by 6 goals0.11%

Total Goals Over/Under

OverUnder
0.593.34%6.66%
1.575.29%24.71%
2.550.84%49.16%
3.528.78%71.22%
4.513.83%86.17%
5.55.74%94.26%
6.52.09%97.91%

Total Goals Heracles Almelo Over/Under

OverUnder
0.569.59%30.41%
1.533.39%66.61%
2.511.84%88.16%
3.53.29%96.71%

Total Goals Ajax Over/Under

OverUnder
0.578.09%21.91%
1.544.82%55.18%
2.519.57%80.43%
3.56.79%93.21%
4.51.94%98.06%

Total Goals - First Half Over/Under

OverUnder
0.571.46%28.54%
1.535.68%64.32%
2.513.24%86.76%
3.53.86%96.14%

Score Props

Correct Score

Heracles Almelo
Ajax
Score012345
0
6.66%
10.12%
7.68%
3.89%
1.47%
0.45%
1
7.93%
12.04%
9.14%
4.63%
1.76%
0.53%
2
4.72%
7.17%
5.44%
2.75%
1.04%
0.32%
3
1.87%
2.84%
2.16%
1.09%
0.41%
0.13%
4
0.56%
0.85%
0.64%
0.33%
0.12%
0.04%
5
0.13%
0.20%
0.15%
0.08%
0.03%
0.01%
Heracles Almelo
1-07.93%
2-04.72%
2-17.17%
3-01.87%
3-12.84%
3-22.16%
4-00.56%
4-10.85%
4-20.64%
4-30.33%
5-00.13%
5-10.20%
5-20.15%
Draw
0-06.66%
1-112.04%
2-25.44%
3-31.09%
4-40.12%
Ajax
0-110.12%
0-27.68%
1-29.14%
0-33.89%
1-34.63%
2-32.75%
0-41.47%
1-41.76%
2-41.04%
3-40.41%
0-50.45%
1-50.53%
2-50.32%
3-50.13%

Correct Score - First Half

Heracles Almelo
Ajax
Score01234
0
28.54%
20.06%
7.05%
1.65%
0.29%
1
15.73%
11.05%
3.88%
0.91%
0.16%
2
4.33%
3.05%
1.07%
0.25%
0.04%
3
0.80%
0.56%
0.20%
0.05%
0.01%
4
0.11%
0.08%
0.03%
0.01%
0.00%
Heracles Almelo
1-015.73%
2-04.33%
2-13.05%
3-00.80%
3-10.56%
3-20.20%
4-00.11%
Draw
0-028.54%
1-111.05%
2-21.07%
Ajax
0-120.06%
0-27.05%
1-23.88%
0-31.65%
1-30.91%
2-30.25%
0-40.29%
1-40.16%