Buffalo at Atlanta

Updated

Buffalo Bills

(13-6)
Rank7
P/G28.3
PA/G22.2
65.0%35.0%
Buffalo WinAtlanta Win
27.1Projected Points 23.1
14Final Score 24

Atlanta Falcons

(8-9)
Rank19
P/G20.8
PA/G23.6
Rank7
P/G28.3
PA/G22.2
Rank19
P/G20.8
PA/G23.6

Quarterbacks

Josh Allen

starting
Cmp%StartsYPGTDINT
70.45243.092

Michael Penix

starting
Cmp%StartsYPGTDINT
62.44230.033

Last 5 Games

Buffalo Bills
Money Line
L 23-20 vs New England PatriotsNE: Drake Maye • BUF: Josh Allen-420
W 19-31 vs New Orleans SaintsNO: Spencer Rattler • BUF: Josh Allen-1100
W 21-31 vs Miami DolphinsMIA: Tua Tagovailoa • BUF: Josh Allen-710
W 40-41 vs Baltimore RavensBAL: Lamar Jackson • BUF: Josh Allen+110
L 29-32 at Kansas City ChiefsBUF: Josh Allen • KC: Patrick Mahomes+100
Atlanta Falcons
Money Line
W 27-34 vs Washington CommandersWAS: Marcus Mariota • ATL: Michael Penix-145
L 0-30 at Carolina PanthersATL: Michael Penix • CAR: Bryce Young-235
W 22-6 at Minnesota VikingsATL: Michael Penix • MIN: J.J. McCarthy+160
L 23-20 vs Tampa Bay BuccaneersTB: Baker Mayfield • ATL: Michael Penix-105
L 44-38 vs Carolina PanthersCAR: Bryce Young • ATL: Michael Penix-380

Injuries

Buffalo Bills

Status
  • DTT.J. SandersOut
  • DTEd OliverProbable
  • LBDorian WilliamsProbable
  • TChase LundtOut
  • SDamar HamlinIR
  • LBMatt MilanoOut
  • TEDalton KincaidOut
  • TDion DawkinsProbable
  • PCameron JohnstonIR
  • LBJimmy CiarloOut
  • CBDorian StrongIR
  • WRCurtis SamuelOut
  • STaylor RappProbable

Atlanta Falcons

Status
  • RBNathan CarterOut
  • DLTa'quon GrahamOut
  • DLLaCale LondonOut
  • -Storm NortonIR
  • WRDarnell MooneyOut
  • WRRay-Ray McCloud IIIOut
  • WRKhaDarel HodgeProbable
  • CBNatrone BrooksProbable
  • DBBilly Bowman Jr.Out
  • LBTroy AndersenIR
  • TJack NelsonOut
  • SXavier WattsProbable
  • CBA.J. TerrellProbable
  • LBBralen TriceIR
  • LBMalik VerdonIR
  • CBClark Phillips IIIOut
  • SJordan FullerOut for Season
Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA
Shawn Smith
Referee
ML EffectO/U Effect
Lean Away CrewNo Effect

Money Line

Implied Margin

Using the best lines from multiple sportsbooks, this would be the % take from the consensus sportsbook if bets were even on each side.

More on Implied Margin
:2.0%

Implied Margin

Using the best lines from multiple sportsbooks, this would be the % take from the consensus sportsbook if bets were even on each side.

More on Implied Margin
:1.8%
 Open LineHeritageBovadaBetOnlineYouWagerSportsBettingBest Line

No-Vig Odds

Using a market maker sportsbook, this is what the line would be if there was no vigorish (sportsbook fee) in the price.

More on No-Vig Odds
Buffalo-215-195-195-186-200-186-186-170.4
Atlanta+185+170+165+162+170+162+170+170.4
 Open LineSouth PointCircaWynnStationsWestgateBest Line

No-Vig Odds

Using a market maker sportsbook, this is what the line would be if there was no vigorish (sportsbook fee) in the price.

More on No-Vig Odds
Buffalo-195-200-190-200-210-200-190-170.4
Atlanta+170+175+165+170+175+175+175+170.4

Spread Analysis

Implied Margin

Using the best lines from multiple sportsbooks, this would be the % take from the consensus sportsbook if bets were even on each side.

More on Implied Margin
:3.0%

Implied Margin

Using the best lines from multiple sportsbooks, this would be the % take from the consensus sportsbook if bets were even on each side.

More on Implied Margin
:1.2%
 Open LineHeritageBovadaBetOnlineYouWagerSportsBettingBest Line

No-Vig Odds

Using a market maker sportsbook, this is what the line would be if there was no vigorish (sportsbook fee) in the price.

More on No-Vig Odds
Buffalo-4½-108-3½-103-3½-105-3½-107-3½-110-3½-107-3½-103-3½+103
Atlanta+4½-108+3½-113+3½-115+3½-113+3½-110+3½-113+3½-110+3½-103
 Open LineSouth PointCircaWynnStationsWestgateBest Line

No-Vig Odds

Using a market maker sportsbook, this is what the line would be if there was no vigorish (sportsbook fee) in the price.

More on No-Vig Odds
Buffalo-3½-110-3½-110-3½-110-3½-115-3½-110-3½+100-3½+100-3½+103
Atlanta+3½-110+3½-110+3½-110+3½-105+3½-110+3½-116+3½-105+3½-103

Overall

Bet Value Inactive
Buffalo: 0.0%
Bet Value Inactive
Atlanta: 0.0%

Base Rating

Our analytical projection of the match in relation to the implied probability to win from the sportsbooks.

More on Base Rating

Buffalo: 0.0%
Atlanta: 0.0%

Referee

The effect of the referee on the projected outcome of the game.

More on Referee

Buffalo: 10.0%
Atlanta: 0.0%

Bet Trends

Doing an analysis on the betting data, we project which team has which team has an edge.

More on Bet Trends

Buffalo: 0.0%

Sharp Line

Our proprietary formula predicting which direction the line will move.

More on Sharp Line

Buffalo: 10.0%
Atlanta: 0.0%

Latest Spread

Steam Move

A quick and uniform line move across every sportsbook. Usually caused by an injury or deep-pocketed sharp bettor.

More on Steam Move

Buffalo Spread moved from -4-105 to -3½-115
Atlanta Spread moved from +5½-108 to +5-108

Overall

Bet Value Inactive
Buffalo: 40.0%
Bet Value Inactive
Atlanta: 0.0%

Base Rating

Our analytical projection of the match in relation to the implied probability to win from the sportsbooks.

More on Base Rating

Buffalo: 0.0%
Atlanta: 0.0%

Referee

The effect of the referee on the projected outcome of the game.

More on Referee

Buffalo: 10.0%
Atlanta: 0.0%

Bet Trends

Doing an analysis on the betting data, we project which team has which team has an edge.

More on Bet Trends

Buffalo: 0.0%

Sharp Line

Our proprietary formula predicting which direction the line will move.

More on Sharp Line

Buffalo: 30.0%
Atlanta: 0.0%

Latest Spread

Steam Move

A quick and uniform line move across every sportsbook. Usually caused by an injury or deep-pocketed sharp bettor.

More on Steam Move

Buffalo Spread moved from -3½+100 to -3½-108
Atlanta Spread moved from +3½+105 to +3½+100

Over/Under Analysis

Implied Margin

Using the best lines from multiple sportsbooks, this would be the % take from the consensus sportsbook if bets were even on each side.

More on Implied Margin
:3.5%

Implied Margin

Using the best lines from multiple sportsbooks, this would be the % take from the consensus sportsbook if bets were even on each side.

More on Implied Margin
:3.3%
 Open LineHeritageBovadaBetOnlineYouWagerSportsBettingBest Line

No-Vig Odds

Using a market maker sportsbook, this is what the line would be if there was no vigorish (sportsbook fee) in the price.

More on No-Vig Odds
Overo50-108o49½-108o49½-110o49½-107o49½-110o49½-107o49½-107o49½+103
Underu50-108u49½-108u49½-110u49½-113u49½-110u49½-113u49½-108u49½-103
 Open LineSouth PointCircaWynnStationsWestgateBest Line

No-Vig Odds

Using a market maker sportsbook, this is what the line would be if there was no vigorish (sportsbook fee) in the price.

More on No-Vig Odds
Overo48-110o49½-110o49½-110o49½-110o50-110o49½-110o49½-110o49½+103
Underu48-110u49½-110u49½-110u49½-110u50-110u49½-110u50-110u49½-103

Overall

Bet Value Inactive
Over: 0.0%
Bet Value Inactive
Under: 10.0%

Base Rating

Our analytical projection of the match in relation to the implied probability to win from the sportsbooks.

More on Base Rating

Over: 10.0%
Under: 0.0%

Weather

The effect of the temperature or wind on the score of a game.

More on Weather

Over: 0.0%
Under: 0.0%

Referee

The effect of the referee on the projected outcome of the game.

More on Referee

Over: 0.0%
Under: 0.0%

Bet Trends

Doing an analysis on the betting data, we project which team has which team has an edge.

More on Bet Trends

Over: 0.0%

Sharp Line

Our proprietary formula predicting which direction the line will move.

More on Sharp Line

Over: 0.0%
Under: 0.0%

Latest O/U

Steam Move

A quick and uniform line move across every sportsbook. Usually caused by an injury or deep-pocketed sharp bettor.

More on Steam Move

The Over moved from o49½-105 to o49½-110
The Under moved from u49½-110 to u49½-113

Overall

Bet Value Inactive
Over: 20.0%
Bet Value Inactive
Under: 0.0%

Base Rating

Our analytical projection of the match in relation to the implied probability to win from the sportsbooks.

More on Base Rating

Over: 10.0%
Under: 0.0%

Weather

The effect of the temperature or wind on the score of a game.

More on Weather

Over: 0.0%
Under: 0.0%

Referee

The effect of the referee on the projected outcome of the game.

More on Referee

Over: 0.0%
Under: 0.0%

Bet Trends

Doing an analysis on the betting data, we project which team has which team has an edge.

More on Bet Trends

Over: 20.0%

Sharp Line

Our proprietary formula predicting which direction the line will move.

More on Sharp Line

Over: 0.0%
Under: 10.0%

Latest O/U

Steam Move

A quick and uniform line move across every sportsbook. Usually caused by an injury or deep-pocketed sharp bettor.

More on Steam Move

The Over moved from o49½-110 to o50-110
The Under moved from u50-110 to u49½-110
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