Portugal Primeira Liga Predictions

Updated

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Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Boavista
Vitoria		12.8%
67.4%		19.8%
+394
-133
+390
-140
0
1		-0.60329-0.58834-0.39421
Braga
Benfica		12.9%
68.7%		18.4%
+425
-173
+410
-185
1
3		-0.48776-0.48225-0.37472
Chaves
Casa Pia AC		22.2%
52.1%		25.7%
+319
+108
+305
+100
1
3		-0.75639-0.74188-0.65168
Rio Ave
FC Vizela		28.4%
42.8%		28.8%
+158
+181
+150
+185
1
1		-1.26277-1.25716-1.24361
Arouca
Gil Vicente FC		30.9%
39.1%		29.9%
+185
+148
+175
+145
2
2		-1.32246-1.32931-1.20597
Benfica
SC Farense		76.1%
8.3%		15.6%
-296
+752
-300
+725
3
1		-0.33055-0.33626-0.27271
Vitoria
Sporting CP		8.9%
74.9%		16.2%
+1411
-453
+960
-375
0
3		-0.22082-0.28564-0.28907
Porto
Casa Pia AC		69.4%
11.7%		18.9%
-286
+824
-300
+800
2
1		-0.33428-0.33798-0.36570
Portimonense
Famalicao		19.0%
56.8%		24.1%
+458
-150
+480
-165
2
2		-1.40173-1.41116-1.42171
Estoril
Chaves		31.0%
39.7%		29.3%
+152
+201
+150
+200
2
2		-1.23189-1.19696-1.22700
FC Vizela
Braga		8.5%
76.0%		15.5%
+1017
-375
+950
-410
1
2		-0.26668-0.26991-0.27423
Estrela
Boavista		24.3%
49.3%		26.3%
+166
+189
+170
+185
1
1		-1.18166-1.16309-1.33477
Gil Vicente FC
Moreirense		22.8%
50.8%		26.4%
+212
+155
+210
+140
1
0		-1.16174-1.18185-1.47902
Arouca
Rio Ave		27.7%
42.8%		29.5%
+192
+160
+190
+155
1
1		-1.21500-1.21147-1.22075
Sporting CP
Famalicao		71.1%
11.3%		17.6%
-304
+825
-350
+900
1
0		-0.31714-0.30171-0.34062
Chaves
FC Vizela		18.8%
57.2%		24.1%
+267
+110
+250
+115
1
0		-1.33720-1.30092-1.67371
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks43-0-1 (0.875)0-0.77755 
Sportsbooks43-0-1 (0.875)0-0.76741 
DRatings43-0-1 (0.875)0-0.66606
0.11150
0.10135

Predictions Methodology

The Portuguese Liga (Primeira Liga) consists of 18 teams. As with many other European leagues, teams progress throughout the season using the process of promotion and relegation, with the two lowest teams relegated to Segunda Liga, and the two highest teams moving up to join the Primeira Liga. The league became official in 1938, after four years as an experimental league, and has since improved its reputation within the UEFA (Union of European Football Associations).