NHL Hockey Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for December 5, 2023

TimeTeamsGoaliesWinBest
ML
Best
Spread
GoalsTotal
Goals
Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
New York Rangers (18-4-1)
Ottawa Senators (9-10-0)
Igor Shesterkin
Joonas Korpisalo
56.2%
43.8%
-150
+137
-151
+140
-1½+170
+1½-188
-1½+170
+1½-180
3.48
2.81
6.29
o6-118
u6+103
o6½+100
u6½-120
Los Angeles Kings (14-4-3)
Columbus Blue Jackets (8-14-4)
Cam Talbot
Elvis Merzļikins
68.6%
31.4%
-202
+180
-196
+180
-1½+117
+1½-133
-1½+122
+1½-135
3.87
2.55
6.42
o6-113
u6+102
o6-110
u6+100
San Jose Sharks (6-17-2)
New York Islanders (10-7-6)
Kaapo Kähkönen
Ilya Sorokin
26.6%
73.4%
+267
-300
+258
-294
+1½+107
-1½-123
+1½+105
-1½-120
2.23
3.74
5.97
o5½-114
u5½+102
o5½-115
u5½+100
Detroit Red Wings (13-7-3)
Buffalo Sabres (10-13-2)
Alex Lyon
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
49.8%
50.2%
-126
+115
-124
+114
-1½+190
+1½-207
-1½+197
+1½-220
3.30
3.32
6.62
o6½-108
u6½+100
o6½-110
u6½-105
Nashville Predators (12-12-0)
Chicago Blackhawks (7-16-0)
Juuse Saros
Arvid Söderblom
62.3%
37.7%
-180
+162
-180
+165
-1½+142
+1½-155
-1½+140
+1½-155
3.68
2.57
6.25
o6½+111
u6½-118
o6½+105
u6½-125
Anaheim Ducks (10-14-0)
Colorado Avalanche (15-7-2)
John Gibson
Alexandar Georgiev
28.3%
71.7%
+246
-280
+250
-268
+1½+100
-1½-113
+1½+100
-1½-113
2.52
3.96
6.48
o6½-106
u6½-105
o6½-110
u6½-105
Minnesota Wild (8-10-4)
Calgary Flames (10-11-3)
Filip Gustavsson
Jacob Markström
46.4%
53.6%
-109
-103
-106
-104
-1½+220
+1½-246
-1½+224
-1½+225
2.92
3.31
6.23
o6-118
u6½-116
o6-125
u6+105
New Jersey Devils (11-10-1)
Vancouver Canucks (16-8-1)
Akira Schmid
Thatcher Demko
42.4%
57.6%
-103
-105
+105
-106
+1½-245
+1½-232
+1½-230
-1½+216
2.90
3.72
6.62
o6½-137
u7-128
o6½-135
u6½+125
Volatility Bet Value Active
Volatility Bet Value Active
Games for Dec 4, 2023

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinBest
ML
Best
Spread
Final
Goals
Sportsbook
Log Loss
DRatings
Log Loss
Detroit Red Wings
Montreal Canadiens
56.3%
43.7%
-149
+142
-155
+141
-1½+165
+1½-180
-1½+165
+1½-185
5
4
-0.52506-0.52037-0.57391
Philadelphia Flyers
Pittsburgh Penguins
38.4%
61.6%
+151
-158
+155
-166
+1½-165
-1½+158
+1½-165
-1½+146
4
3
-0.93102-0.95218-0.95662
Seattle Kraken
Ottawa Senators
46.2%
53.8%
+101
-114
+110
-115
+1½-225
-1½+210
+1½-225
-1½+200
0
2
-0.65956-0.63673-0.62003
Boston Bruins
Toronto Maple Leafs
47.7%
52.3%
-107
-105
-108
+100
-1½+230
+1½-270
-1½+224
+1½-260
4
3
-0.68858-0.67446-0.74020
New York Islanders
Florida Panthers
38.1%
61.9%
+160
-175
+161
-170
+1½-161
-1½+145
+1½-162
-1½+160
4
3
-0.97625-0.97204-0.96548
New York Rangers
Nashville Predators
55.2%
44.8%
-159
+145
-155
+146
-1½+160
+1½-175
-1½+160
+1½-175
4
3
-0.50974-0.51208-0.59413
Chicago Blackhawks
Winnipeg Jets
27.0%
73.0%
+250
-280
+255
-288
+1½+100
-1½-115
+1½+100
-1½-114
1
3
-0.32768-0.32172-0.31504
Tampa Bay Lightning
Dallas Stars
39.5%
60.5%
+121
-134
+125
-134
+1½-180
-1½+175
+1½-190
-1½+176
1
8
-0.58230-0.57442-0.50284
Ottawa Senators
Columbus Blue Jackets
58.9%
41.1%
-160
+144
-160
+154
-1½+152
+1½-168
-1½+155
+1½-165
2
4
-0.91689-0.94120-0.88831
San Jose Sharks
New Jersey Devils
21.2%
78.8%
+380
-435
+398
-475
+1½+160
-1½-172
+1½+160
-1½-170
6
3
-1.58983-1.63199-1.55315
Vegas Golden Knights
Vancouver Canucks
46.7%
53.3%
+106
-115
+106
-115
+1½-240
-1½+210
+1½-240
-1½+208
4
1
-0.74282-0.74282-0.76245
Washington Capitals
Anaheim Ducks
49.7%
50.3%
-115
+102
-115
+105
-1½+215
+1½-240
-1½+215
+1½-235
5
4
-0.65520-0.64814-0.69884
Colorado Avalanche
Arizona Coyotes
56.1%
43.9%
-187
+170
-185
+180
-1½+130
+1½-149
-1½+135
+1½-140
3
4
-1.01495-1.03586-0.82221
Dallas Stars
Calgary Flames
54.4%
45.6%
-122
+110
-127
+116
-1½+195
+1½-225
-1½+192
+1½-220
3
4
-0.76735-0.79230-0.78421
Minnesota Wild
Nashville Predators
42.0%
58.0%
+105
-116
+109
-119
+1½-235
-1½+215
+1½-230
-1½+202
6
1
-0.74238-0.75877-0.86760
Edmonton Oilers
Winnipeg Jets
47.3%
52.7%
-114
+102
-112
+102
-1½+215
+1½-240
-1½+208
+1½-240
3
1
-0.65716-0.66116-0.74803
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks61-5 (0.167)0-0.81260 
Sportsbooks61-5 (0.167)0-0.82056 
DRatings62-4 (0.333)0-0.75838
0.05422
0.06219

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 12/04/23
 Regular SeasonPostseason
#TeamWLTPtsMake PlayoffsWin 1st Rd.Win 2nd Rd.Conf. Champ.Stanley Cup
1New York Rangers (18-4-1, 37 pts)53.322.66.1112.799.7%70.0%47.8%30.5%17.2%
2Boston Bruins (17-4-3, 37 pts)50.123.68.3108.598.6%50.2%29.9%16.3%9.1%
3Vegas Golden Knights (16-5-5, 37 pts)48.423.610.0106.897.8%55.0%28.0%15.5%8.4%
4Vancouver Canucks (16-8-1, 33 pts)47.528.26.3101.492.4%46.2%22.2%11.7%5.8%
5Colorado Avalanche (15-7-2, 32 pts)46.727.87.6100.992.3%44.9%22.2%9.4%4.5%
6Los Angeles Kings (14-4-3, 31 pts)50.623.28.1109.499.2%63.5%37.2%22.9%13.7%
7Dallas Stars (14-6-3, 31 pts)47.426.18.4103.395.5%53.8%29.8%15.3%7.9%
8Winnipeg Jets (14-8-2, 30 pts)45.928.67.599.388.6%43.3%21.7%9.9%5.1%
9Florida Panthers (14-8-2, 30 pts)44.829.47.897.483.6%43.7%21.3%9.9%4.4%
10Carolina Hurricanes (14-9-1, 29 pts)44.431.06.795.476.1%43.2%19.0%8.8%3.6%
11Detroit Red Wings (13-7-3, 29 pts)43.029.99.195.173.6%35.0%17.1%7.6%3.3%
12Toronto Maple Leafs (12-6-4, 28 pts)43.628.510.097.178.2%38.1%18.8%8.6%3.6%
13Arizona Coyotes (13-9-2, 28 pts)43.530.77.894.870.7%31.5%14.2%5.6%2.4%
14Philadelphia Flyers (13-10-2, 28 pts)40.833.08.389.846.6%22.5%8.5%3.4%1.3%
15St. Louis Blues (13-10-1, 27 pts)42.032.97.191.051.0%21.7%9.2%3.4%1.3%
16Tampa Bay Lightning (11-10-5, 27 pts)38.032.811.187.232.2%11.5%4.8%1.9%0.8%
17New York Islanders (10-7-6, 26 pts)37.831.712.588.140.2%17.2%6.1%2.2%0.8%
18Washington Capitals (12-8-2, 26 pts)39.233.98.987.434.7%15.6%5.4%2.0%0.8%
19Pittsburgh Penguins (11-10-3, 25 pts)40.132.89.189.346.3%17.7%7.1%2.7%1.2%
20Montreal Canadiens (11-11-3, 25 pts)36.036.49.681.611.0%2.1%0.8%0.3%0.1%
21Nashville Predators (12-12-0, 24 pts)40.535.26.387.328.8%11.1%4.5%1.7%0.7%
22New Jersey Devils (11-10-1, 23 pts)40.933.87.389.144.1%19.3%7.9%3.7%1.6%
23Calgary Flames (10-11-3, 23 pts)38.534.39.286.326.3%10.1%3.6%1.4%0.5%
24Buffalo Sabres (10-13-2, 22 pts)36.137.48.580.711.0%3.0%1.2%0.4%0.1%
25Seattle Kraken (8-12-6, 22 pts)33.935.812.480.15.9%1.4%0.5%0.2%0.1%
26Minnesota Wild (8-10-4, 20 pts)36.235.110.683.115.5%3.5%1.2%0.3%0.1%
27Anaheim Ducks (10-14-0, 20 pts)34.940.36.876.62.8%0.6%0.2%0.1%0.0%
28Columbus Blue Jackets (8-14-4, 20 pts)31.239.811.073.31.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
29Edmonton Oilers (9-12-1, 19 pts)40.334.77.087.632.7%13.4%5.6%2.6%1.2%
30Ottawa Senators (9-10-0, 18 pts)38.936.17.084.823.0%11.0%4.6%1.8%0.8%
31Chicago Blackhawks (7-16-0, 14 pts)30.943.87.369.20.5%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
32San Jose Sharks (6-17-2, 14 pts)26.545.99.662.60.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%

Hockey Methodology

All of our NHL hockey picks and predictions are listed above along with the odds to win. As of late 2017, we are now taking into account more information to make our predictions as accurate as possible. These predictions should be used for entertainment purposes only.

The current process simulates the regular season 500 times and the playoffs 1,000 times. Our simulations follow all of the rules of the NHL tiebreaker system which are as follows.

  1. Points: Most points accured by a team. In the case of uneven games played, it is point percentage.
  2. RW: Games won, not including those from overtime or shootout.
  3. ROW: Games won, not including those from shootout.
  4. Total Wins: Full number of wins.
  5. There are three more criteria which fulfill this list, but it is very unlikely that a scenario would fall this far.

Our projection system for the NHL is at Level 3, which one can read about in our Predictions Disclaimer.